Is Plan 2003 Modeled Plan in Richmond, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 4.9% cap rate and $-389/mo modeled cash flow at a $313,995 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Plan 2003 Modeled Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 4.9% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,495/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

D- Composite 35.22

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +7.7/30.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Schools +6.2/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.5/5.0
1% rule +2.3/10.0
Rent growth +2.1/5.0
DSCR +1.8/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$313,995

Plan 2003 Modeled Plan · Richmond, TX 77406

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,003 sqft · SingleFamily · 237 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 9% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

* Granite kitchen countertops * Gas range * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Open floor plan * Stainless steel appliances * Front porch * Kitchen island * Den * Extra storage space * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Commuter-friendly location * Near local schools * Playground * Pavilion * Splash pad

Key facts

Front porch
Smart thermostat
Gas range

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $314k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-389 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (9.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (20.5% below list).
Recommended offer: $250k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.7% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 70/100 on livability (#363 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Joe Hubenak El (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 1,214 students, 37% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1743 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 237 days — a 12% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,502 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 237 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.73% ✗
Cap rate: 4.93%
Cash-on-cash: -4.88%
DSCR: 0.78
GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $341,494
List price: $313,995
Delta: -8.05%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25410 Western Sage Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	2,158 (+8%)	7mo	$345,500	$160	77
10215 Hidden Lake Ln	0.31mi	3/2.5	2,116 (+6%)	1mo	$895,000	$423	73
25127 Farmdale Ln	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,904 (-5%)	13mo	$350,000	$184	67
10215 Hidden Lake Ln	0.31mi	3/2.5	2,116 (+6%)	22mo	$890,000	$421	55
11010 Heartland Grove Dr	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,014 (+0%)	6mo	$275,000	$137	54
10911 Reston Point Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	2,074 (+4%)	20mo	$355,000	$171	44
10434 Skyward Estate Trl	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,160 (+8%)	22mo	$389,990	$181	29
26003 Horizon Star Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,721 (-14%)	20mo	$349,990	$203	26
10502 Skyward Estate Trl	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,721 (-14%)	23mo	$349,990	$203	21
10006 Granite Grove Ln	0.68mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,272 (+13%)	21mo	$349,990	$154	20
25930 Dawning Torch Trce	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,721 (-14%)	21mo	$367,990	$214	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -28.0%
Equity multiple: 0.09×
Total profit: $-87,381
Equity at exit: $50,918

10-year hold

IRR: -43.2%
Equity multiple: -0.42×
Total profit: $-136,091
Equity at exit: $29,526

Cash invested: $95,618 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 25 active · 20 under contract
Months of supply: 7.5 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $319,995 ($172/sqft)
Median days on market: 55 d
This list price: 44% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -0.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77406

Home prices YoY: -26.2%
Rents YoY: -1.6%
Active inventory: 1743
Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,495 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,791
Tax est. 1.5%: −$427 /mo · $5,122/yr
Insurance: −$142
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
Net cashflow: $-389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,987

Max offer price $285,216

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-153	-5% $-271	+0% $-389	+5% $-507	+10% $-625
Rent	-10% $-586	-5% $-487	+0% $-389	+5% $-290	+10% $-192
Rate	-1.0pp $-217	-0.5pp $-302	base $-389	+0.5pp $-477	+1.0pp $-567

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $85,373
Closing costs: $10,245
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10910 Brighton Gardens Dr Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	2385	$2,595	$1.09	41d	1	0.73mi
10503 Shinning Dawn Way Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	2523	$3,399	$1.35	139d	1	0.81mi
25810 Palmdale Estate Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	2008	$2,350	$1.17	139d	1	0.89mi
10823 Capella Creek Way Richmond, TX	4.0	3.0	2388	$2,600	$1.09	28d	1	0.90mi
9547 Summer River Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1930	$2,300	$1.19	45d	1	0.95mi
11115 Laguna Heights Ln Richmond, TX	3.0	3.0	2635	$1,500	$0.57	78d	1	1.06mi
24535 Via Salerno Ct Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1730	$2,100	$1.21	45d	1	1.19mi
26831 Chandrila Vista Ct Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,300	$1.32	30d	1	1.20mi
9743 Stratton Ridge Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	2699	$2,356	$0.87	4d	1	1.22mi
11431 Windy Cedar Ct Richmond, TX	4.0	4.0	3000	$2,895	$0.96	11d	1	1.29mi
11602 Darby Chase Trl Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$2,550	$1.34	139d	1	1.41mi
9419 Sparrow Creek Ct Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2654	$2,950	$1.11	31d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $313,995 Active 237 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $313,995 Active 236 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $313,995 Active 235 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $313,995 Active 234 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $313,995 Active 233 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $313,995 Active 231 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $313,995 Active 229 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $313,995 Active 228 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $313,995 Active 227 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $313,995 Active 226 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $313,995 Active 225 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $313,995 Active 224 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $313,995 Active 218 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $313,995 Active 217 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $313,995 Active 215 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $313,995 Active 213 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $313,995 Active 211 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $313,995 Active 209 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $313,995 Active 208 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $313,995 Active 207 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $313,995 Active 206 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $313,995 Active 205 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $313,995 Active 204 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $313,995 Active 203 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $313,995 Active 202 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $313,995 Active 201 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $313,995 Active 200 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $313,995 Active 199 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $313,995 Active 198 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $313,995 Active 197 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $313,995 Active 196 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $313,995 Active 195 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $313,995 Active 194 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $313,995 Active 193 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $313,995 Active 192 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $313,995 Active 191 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $313,995 Active 190 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $313,995 Active 188 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $313,995 Active 187 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $313,995 Active 186 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $313,995 Active 185 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $313,995 Active 182 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $313,995 Active 180 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $313,995 Active 179 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $313,995 Active 177 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $313,995 Active 175 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $313,995 Active 174 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $313,995 Active 173 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $313,995 Active 172 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $313,995 Active 171 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $29,940
− Mortgage interest: −$19,129
− Property taxes: −$5,122
− Insurance: −$1,707
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,395
− Management: −$2,395
− Depreciation: −$9,934
Taxable loss: −$10,743

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,578
After-tax cash flow: $-2,089/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minimal updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 62/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Joe Hubenak El B- TX #455/4,322 Nat'l #8,048/41,679 Middle Briscoe J H B TX #166/1,662 Nat'l #1,836/14,009 High Foster H S B TX #141/1,632 Nat'l #2,354/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Lamar CISD
NCES district ID: 4826580
Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $75,213
Composite: 46.43/100
National rank: #2452
State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Richmond

Score: 70/100
State rank: #363
US rank: #7780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
City population: 158,237
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 69,918
Household income: $141,869
Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 14% Asian 12%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -79.18%
Current HPI: 222.9525
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-8.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

2026-05-15 Price Changed $321,995 Zillow
2026-05-01 Price Changed $318,995 Zillow
2026-04-15 Price Changed $316,995 Zillow
2026-04-07 Price Changed $331,995 Zillow
2026-03-24 Price Changed $341,995 Zillow
2026-01-31 Listed $351,995 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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