13553 Sauger Ct · Conroe, TX 77384

$307,496

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,111 sqft · Land · 5 Days on market

Built 2026 4,840 sqft lot $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Wisteria plan is a 2-story plan with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and family room. It features an impressive 2-story foyer, 1st floor primary suite, and upstairs game room.

Key facts

• Smart home package
• Gourmet kitchen
• 42 inch cabinetry

Tags

• ZONED TO EXCELLENT SCHOOLS
• SMART HOME PACKAGE
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• 42 INCH CABINETRY
• SILESTONE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association managed by Principal Management Group of Hou; Annual HOA fee of $550; Community pool; Curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Driveway parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (under construction); Faces east; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio and deck; Fence around back yard; Sprinkler/irrigation system; Subdivision lot setting; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (12' x 15'); Three additional bedrooms on the second floor (13' x 10', 12' x 10', 13' x 10')
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity in bathrooms; Kitchen and family room combined; Primary bedroom with private bath; Pantry and walk-in pantry; Self-closing cabinet doors and drawers; Solid surface countertops; Soaking tub and separate shower in bath; Tub/shower combination; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $307,496 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $288,094.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $307k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bush El (math 70% / reading 59%, grade B, #257 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 880 students, 20% FRL); Mccullough J H (math 82% / reading 81%, grade A+, #9 of 1,662 statewide, top 1%, 2,178 students, 14% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 316 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $234,444 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.27%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,094
• List price: $307,496
• Delta: 6.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-47,228
• Equity at exit: $42,956

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-57,484
• Equity at exit: $24,909

Cash invested: $80,666 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77384

• Home prices YoY: -22.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,344 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,511
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,077/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,236

Max offer price $288,094

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $249	-5% $167	+0% $86	+5% $4	+10% $-78
Rent	-10% $-100	-5% $-7	+0% $86	+5% $178	+10% $271
Rate	-1.0pp $231	-0.5pp $159	base $86	+0.5pp $11	+1.0pp $-65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,024
• Closing costs: $8,643
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14031 Chinook Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.5	2630	$2,550	$0.97	45d	1	0.52mi
2547 Steelhead Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2628	$2,390	$0.91	7d	1	0.61mi
9811 Laurel Lake Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1830	$3,153	$1.72	0d	1	0.70mi
9857 Laurel Lake Dr Shenandoah, TX	4.0	2.0	1717	$2,250	$1.31	23d	1	0.82mi
14221 Rainier Peak Xing Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2289	$2,366	$1.03	0d	1	1.12mi
2443 Farm to Market Road 1488 #3047 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1579	$2,214	$1.40	0d	1	1.27mi
2477 Farm to Market Road 1488 #3228 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,714	$1.22	0d	1	1.28mi
2477 Farm to Market Road 1488 #2510 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,754	$1.25	12d	1	1.28mi
175 Merryweather Pl Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1814	$1,990	$1.10	19d	1	1.29mi
14273 Lake Lodge Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	2280	$2,550	$1.12	45d	1	1.31mi
2477 Farm to Market Road 1488 #3047 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,765	$1.25	12d	1	1.35mi
2477 Farm To Market RD Conroe, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1129	$2,127	$1.88	0d	36	1.35mi
2443 Farm To Market RD Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1053	$2,385	$2.26	0d	36	1.38mi
14006 Juniper Point Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2242	$2,450	$1.09	20d	1	1.43mi
14206 Black Canyon Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	2066	$2,150	$1.04	0d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $307,496 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $307,496 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 688-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   days on marketlisting id $307,496 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $307,496 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $307,496 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $307,496 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $307,496 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $307,496 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $307,496 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $307,496 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $307,496 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $307,496 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $307,496 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $307,496 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    price $307,496 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    The Wisteria plan is a 2-story plan with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and family room. It features an impressive 2-story foyer, 1st floor primary suite, and upstairs game room.

17. 2026-05-02
    price $307,687 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    The Wisteria plan is a 2-story plan with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and family room. It features an impressive 2-story foyer, 1st floor primary suite, and upstairs game room.

18. 2026-04-29
    price $307,585 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    The Wisteria plan is a 2-story plan with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and family room. It features an impressive 2-story foyer, 1st floor primary suite, and upstairs game room.

19. 2026-04-23
    price $307,515 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    The Wisteria plan is a 2-story plan with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and family room. It features an impressive 2-story foyer, 1st floor primary suite, and upstairs game room.

20. 2026-04-17
    listed $307,374 Active 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    The Wisteria plan is a 2-story plan with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and family room. It features an impressive 2-story foyer, 1st floor primary suite, and upstairs game room.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,077 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,627 · $469/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,550/yr (+$379/mo · 422.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,133
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,138
• − Property taxes: −$1,077
• − Insurance: −$1,440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,251
• − Management: −$2,251
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$8,381
• Taxable loss: −$3,956
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$950
• After-tax cash flow: $1,976/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,781
• Household income: $91,667
• Rent vs Own: 48.4% rent · 51.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1399.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.42%
• Current HPI: 220.403
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $307,496 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $307,496 Zillow
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $307,687 Zillow
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $307,585 Zillow
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $307,515 Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Listed $307,374 Zillow

Property tax history

+42.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,077 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.