16401 San Pablo Ave #133 · Montalvin Manor, CA 94806

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 52 Days on market

Built 1974 $115/sqft · 7% below area Est $177k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEEDS POSSIBLE ROOF WORK, NEW CARPET AND EXTENOR COSMETICS, BUT HAS A GREAT FLLOR PLAN! PRICED FOR QUICK SALE! AS IS!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Relaxing spa
• Clubhouse

Tags

• CLUBHOUSE
• SWIMMING POOL
• RELAXING SPA
• DOUBLE OVEN
• WALK-IN TUB
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Tara Hills Mobile park; Senior community; Community clubhouse, pool, sauna, BBQ area, and guest parking; Contact park for pet policy

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (covered) with side yard access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts in kitchen
• Home design: Manufactured home in park (mobile home), double wide; Model: Far West
• Construction: Aluminum, vinyl and wood siding
• Exterior features: Back yard; Side yard; Storage shed(s); Low maintenance yard; Deck; Covered patio/front porch; Carpeted patio/porch; Porch ramp

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Laminate counters; Dishwasher; Electric range / 220V outlet in kitchen; Refrigerator; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (street level; primary bedroom suite on main level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with tub and jets; Updated baths
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Pantry; Dining area; Window coverings; Main entry; Laundry facility
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#262 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• West Contra Costa Unified (suburban): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #993 of 1,400 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $11k; list at $165k implies a 1400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $160,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.67%
• DSCR: 2.45
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $177,188
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -6.88%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16401 San Pablo Ave #413	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	11mo	$160,000	$111	87
16401 San Pablo Ave #429	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-5%)	3mo	$200,000	$146	86
16401 San Pablo Ave #338	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-3%)	8mo	$120,000	$86	85
16401 San Pablo Ave #433	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,428 (-1%)	11mo	$260,000	$182	84
16401 San Pablo Ave #280	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,320 (-8%)	2mo	$260,000	$197	84
16401 San Pablo Ave #263	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	8mo	$215,000	$172	71
16401 San Pablo Ave #131	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-5%)	22mo	$140,000	$102	70
16401 San Pablo Ave #349	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	24mo	$150,000	$112	65
16401 San Pablo Ave #103	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,286 (-11%)	23mo	$142,500	$111	63
16401 San Pablo Ave #344	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-13%)	18mo	$220,000	$176	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $53,603
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.26×
• Total profit: $150,773
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94806

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,036 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$637
• Net cashflow: $1,258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2633 Rim Rd San Pablo, CA	3.0	2.0	1187	$3,500	$2.95	44d	1	0.12mi
2689 Limerick Rd San Pablo, CA	3.0	2.0	1170	$3,650	$3.12	44d	1	0.59mi
2275 Cypress Ave San Pablo, CA	3.0	2.0	1204	$3,095	$2.57	17d	1	0.77mi
3400 Richmond Pkwy San Pablo, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	906	$2,417	$2.67	2d	67	0.83mi
2601 Hilltop Dr San Pablo, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	963	$3,279	$3.40	2d	21	0.99mi
530 Sunnyview Dr Pinole, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$2,199	$2.23	2d	16	1.30mi
3614 Stoneglen S San Pablo, CA	2.0	2.0	1176	$2,395	$2.04	44d	1	1.31mi
2131 Stanton Ave Unit F San Pablo, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,275	$2.53	5d	1	1.42mi
2131 Stanton Ave San Pablo, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,999	$2.10	44d	1	1.42mi
1588 Ridgecrest Rd Pinole, CA	3.0	2.0	1044	$3,050	$2.92	24d	1	1.46mi
3185 Garrity Way Richmond, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	967	$3,620	$3.74	2d	17	1.47mi
24 Park Ln El Sobrante, CA	2.0	1.5	1080	$3,200	$2.96	3d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    listed $165,000 Active 1056-char remark
16. 1998-03-30
    soldstatus $11,000 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    NEEDS POSSIBLE ROOF WORK, NEW CARPET AND EXTENOR COSMETICS, BUT HAS A GREAT FLLOR PLAN! PRICED FOR QUICK SALE! AS IS!

17. 1998-03-12
    historical 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    NEEDS POSSIBLE ROOF WORK, NEW CARPET AND EXTENOR COSMETICS, BUT HAS A GREAT FLLOR PLAN! PRICED FOR QUICK SALE! AS IS!

18. 1998-01-28
    listed $15,000 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    NEEDS POSSIBLE ROOF WORK, NEW CARPET AND EXTENOR COSMETICS, BUT HAS A GREAT FLLOR PLAN! PRICED FOR QUICK SALE! AS IS!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,427
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,914
• − Management: −$2,914
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $13,256
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,181
• After-tax cash flow: $11,912/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Contra Costa Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632550
• Math proficiency: 24% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,837
• Composite: 30.04/100
• National rank: #11623
• State rank: #993 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Montalvin Manor

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #262
• US rank: #8705

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montalvin Manor, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 62,546
• Household income: $86,034
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2830.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% Two or more races 16% Asian 16% Black 13% White 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 2% Italian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 43% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -665.89%
• Current HPI: 323.0082
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.06%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1000.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $165,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-03-30 Sold (MLS) $11,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-03-12 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-01-28 Listed $15,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $190 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.