31306 E Timberloch Trl · Stagecoach, TX 77355

$174,950

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 169 Days on market

Built 2006 0.25 ac lot Est $163k · 7% over $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• ARV discount +4.2/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home! Why throw away another dollar on rent when you can own this stunning remodeled property? Just in time for the holidays, this move-in-ready gem offers the perfect blend of modern luxury and functional design. Enjoy today's ideal family lifestyle with a spacious, open layout and a desirable split floor plan for maximum privacy. The brand-new kitchen is a chef's delight, featuring sleek stainless steel appliances, pristine quartz countertops, modern subway tile backsplash, and new cabinetry. You'll find fresh neutral paint, all-new flooring, and stylish, contemporary fixtures throughout, as well as new roof, windows and HVAC ensuring a truly worry-free and updated experience from

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Remodeled property
• New cabinetry

Tags

• REMODELED PROPERTY
• BRAND-NEW KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SUBWAY TILE BACKSPLASH
• NEW CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $390 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.2% in Stagecoach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,010 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia West H S (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,208 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 553 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,956 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.56%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,944
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31219 Wide Oak Cir	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-8%)	2mo	$150,000	$134	71
31222 Wide Oak Cir	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+10%)	9mo	$150,000	$112	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,502
• Equity at exit: $26,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $28,939
• Equity at exit: $15,126

Cash invested: $48,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77355

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Active inventory: 553
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,959 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,798/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,465

Max offer price $174,950

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,738
• Closing costs: $5,248
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-20
   price $174,950
4. 2026-02-13
   price $179,950
5. 2025-11-20
   listed $190,000 Active
6. 2024-09-26
   soldstatus
7. 2012-08-31
   soldstatus
8. 2012-08-31
   soldstatus
9. 2007-09-14
   soldstatus
10. 2006-08-08
    soldstatus
11. 2006-05-19
    soldstatus
12. 2004-05-04
    historical
13. 2003-11-04
    listed $74,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,798 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,403/yr (+$117/mo · 78.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,505
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,800
• − Property taxes: −$1,798
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,880
• − Management: −$1,880
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$5,089
• Taxable income: $1,977
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$475
• After-tax cash flow: $4,207/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Stagecoach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1010
• US rank: #17937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,847
• Household income: $102,066
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.90%
• Current HPI: 268.5845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+136.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $174,950 HARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $179,950 HARMLS
• 2025-11-20 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-09-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-08-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-05-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-05-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2003-11-04 Listed $74,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,798 · +40.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.