12389 Old Mill Dr · Prairieville, LA 70734

$310,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,755 sqft · SingleFamily · 78 Days on market

Built 2002 10,018 sqft lot $177/sqft · 10% below area Est $346k · 10% under $38/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

OLD MILL SUBDIVISION! 4BR/2BA, Open Floor Plan with wood flooring in the Foyer, Dining, and Living Room. The spacious kitchen features Cypress Cabinets, a center island with sink and tile countertops, stainless appliances, a separate pantry, and a walk-in laundry room with upper cabinets for additional storage. The Living Room is filled with natural light and showcases built-ins on each side of a gas log fireplace. The bedrooms are nicely sized, and the primary suite is spacious, complete with a ceiling fan. The primary bath offers jetted tub, separate shower, high ceilings, dual sinks, and dual closets. Enjoy the beautifully shaded backyard, along with California-style garage and additional storage room and shed. OTHER AMENITIES: Community Pool, Playground, Doggie Park, Partially Gated, Walking Distance to local Schools, Pharmacy, Community Grocer, Close to I-10!

Key facts

• Separate pantry
• Open floor plan
• Tile countertops

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CYPRESS CABINETS
• CENTER ISLAND
• TILE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• SEPARATE PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $311k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $340 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $292k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.3% in Prairieville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#70 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($292k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $132k; list at $311k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $292,246 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.69%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $346,064
• List price: $310,900
• Delta: -10.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37069 Mill Run Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,911 (+9%)	4mo	$350,000	$183	67
37040 Rivergate Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,615 (-8%)	7mo	$274,995	$170	64
13008 Dutchtown Mill Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,745 (-1%)	2mo	$314,000	$180	60
37055 John St	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,716 (-2%)	7mo	$285,000	$166	57
12045 Clare Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,759 (+0%)	7mo	$351,566	$200	56
12058 Clare Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,757 (+0%)	7mo	$354,900	$202	55
37395 Cypress Turn Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (+3%)	6mo	$309,900	$172	55
12371 Dutchtown Villa Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,656 (-6%)	6mo	$259,900	$157	53
12459 Arceneaux Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,807 (+3%)	7mo	$177,000	$98	50
12061 Rotterdam Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,901 (+8%)	1mo	$380,000	$200	47
12501 Dutchtown Villa Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,584 (-10%)	4mo	$265,000	$167	46
12037 Clare Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,636 (-7%)	5mo	$319,900	$196	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-28,764
• Equity at exit: $46,356

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $2,602
• Equity at exit: $26,881

Cash invested: $87,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70734

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,923 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,630
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,049/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$614
• Net cashflow: $340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,492

Max offer price $310,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,725
• Closing costs: $9,327
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37393 Preserve Trl Gonzales, LA	3.0	2.5	1956	$2,500	$1.28	14d	2	0.68mi
37313 Mindy Way Ave Prairieville, LA	4.0	3.0	2517	$4,050	$1.61	44d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr
• Likely covers: gaspoolsecurity

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $310,900 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $310,900 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,400 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,400 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,400 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $325,400 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $325,400 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,400 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,400 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,400 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $325,400 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,400 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,400 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,400 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,400 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,400 Active 59 DOM
17. 2026-04-01
    listed $339,900 Active 876-char remark

    Show marketing remark (878 chars)

    OLD MILL SUBDIVISION! 4BR/2BA, Open Floor Plan with wood flooring in the Foyer, Dining, and Living Room. The spacious kitchen features Cypress Cabinets, a center island with sink and tile countertops, stainless appliances, a separate pantry, and a walk-in laundry room with upper cabinets for additional storage. The Living Room is filled with natural light and showcases built-ins on each side of a gas log fireplace. The bedrooms are nicely sized, and the primary suite is spacious, complete with a ceiling fan. The primary bath offers jetted tub, separate shower, high ceilings, dual sinks, and dual closets. Enjoy the beautifully shaded backyard, along with California-style garage and additional storage room and shed. OTHER AMENITIES: Community Pool, Playground, Doggie Park, Partially Gated, Walking Distance to local Schools, Pharmacy, Community Grocer, Close to I-10!

18. 2026-04-01
    listed $339,900 Active 878-char remark

    Show marketing remark (878 chars)

    OLD MILL SUBDIVISION! 4BR/2BA, Open Floor Plan with wood flooring in the Foyer, Dining, and Living Room. The spacious kitchen features Cypress Cabinets, a center island with sink and tile countertops, stainless appliances, a separate pantry, and a walk-in laundry room with upper cabinets for additional storage. The Living Room is filled with natural light and showcases built-ins on each side of a gas log fireplace. The bedrooms are nicely sized, and the primary suite is spacious, complete with a ceiling fan. The primary bath offers jetted tub, separate shower, high ceilings, dual sinks, and dual closets. Enjoy the beautifully shaded backyard, along with California-style garage and additional storage room and shed. OTHER AMENITIES: Community Pool, Playground, Doggie Park, Partially Gated, Walking Distance to local Schools, Pharmacy, Community Grocer, Close to I-10!

19. 2023-11-09
    soldstatus $131,650
20. 2006-09-05
    soldstatus $230,000
21. 2006-09-05
    soldstatus $230,000
22. 2006-08-31
    soldstatus
23. 2006-06-26
    listed $235,900
24. 2006-06-26
    listed $235,900
25. 2002-12-18
    soldstatus
26. 2002-10-29
    listed $169,900
27. 2002-10-29
    listed $169,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,049 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,049 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,075
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,415
• − Property taxes: −$2,049
• − Insurance: −$1,554
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,806
• − Management: −$2,806
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$9,044
• Taxable loss: −$1,056
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$253
• After-tax cash flow: $4,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ascension Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $68,423
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2347
• State rank: #7 of 98 in LA

Livability — Prairieville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #8507

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 49,278
• Population (ZIP): 9,880

Population outlook (Ascension County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,480 people
• By 2030: 158,329 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 183,741 · +26.3%
• By 2050: 207,615 · +42.7%
• By 2075: 260,244 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 289,576 · +99.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ascension

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.7pp toward D · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.70%
• Current HPI: 148.0987
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+100.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $339,900 GBRMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $339,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2023-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $131,650 Public Records
• 2006-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2006-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2006-08-31 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2006-06-26 Listed $235,900 GBRMLS
• 2006-06-26 Listed $235,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2002-12-18 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2002-10-29 Listed $169,900 GBRMLS
• 2002-10-29 Listed $169,900 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,049 · -13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.