9 Clinton St · Springs, NY 11937

$1,150,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · SingleFamily · 81 Days on market

Built 2000 0.53 ac lot $920/sqft · 13% below area Est $1318k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ready to make this charming Springs cottage yours! 3 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, 1,250 sqft of cozy renovation potential. Features include: New roof, wood-burning fireplace, wrap-around deck. Plans by world renowned interior designer also included. 0.67 acres on a serene tree-lined street.

Key facts

• Wrap around deck
• New roof
• 0.53 acre lot

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• WRAP AROUND DECK
• SERENE TREE LINED STREET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.15M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($108k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.15M).
• Recommended offer: $1.08M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 11.1% in Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#809 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Springs Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #239 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $20,312/mo this rent would consume 188% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $34k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $322k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.08M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $970k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,081,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.53%
• DSCR: 2.49
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,318,045
• List price: $1,150,000
• Delta: -12.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
51 Cedar Ridge Dr	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,300 (+4%)	14mo	$1,100,000	$846	64
158 Woodbine Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+13%)	7mo	$1,075,000	$758	50
143 Gardiner Ave	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,200 (-4%)	12mo	$1,130,000	$942	49
3 Ninth St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,083 (-13%)	18mo	$750,000	$693	36
76 Camberly Rd	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+12%)	20mo	$1,500,000	$1,071	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $493,844
• Equity at exit: $171,469

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.14×
• Total profit: $1,655,546
• Equity at exit: $99,431

Cash invested: $322,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,312 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,031
• Tax from tax record: −$538 /mo · $6,459/yr
• Insurance: −$479
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,265
• Net cashflow: $8,998

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,922

Max offer price $1,150,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $287,500
• Closing costs: $34,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
117 Woodbine Dr East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1496	$65,000	$43.45	43d	1	0.26mi
38 Woodbine Dr East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1000	$10,000	$10.00	18d	1	0.33mi
289 Three Mile Harbor Hog Creek Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	3.0	1600	$45,600	$28.50	43d	1	0.54mi
8 Beverly Rd East Hampton, NY	4.0	2.0	1269	$20,000	$15.76	1d	1	0.65mi
66 Crystal Dr East Hampton, NY	2.0	3.0	960	$20,000	$20.83	1d	1	1.31mi
319 Three Mile Harbor Rd East Hampton, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$5,500	$5.00	1d	1	1.39mi
3 Forest Ct East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1750	$50,000	$28.57	24d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-03-29
    listed $1,150,000 Active 285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    Ready to make this charming Springs cottage yours! 3 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, 1,250 sqft of cozy renovation potential. Features include: New roof, wood-burning fireplace, wrap-around deck. Plans by world renowned interior designer also included. 0.67 acres on a serene tree-lined street.

16. 2022-07-20
    soldstatus $970,000
17. 1994-06-07
    soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,459 · $538/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,947 · $1,079/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,488/yr (+$541/mo · 100.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $243,741
• − Mortgage interest: −$64,418
• − Property taxes: −$6,459
• − Insurance: −$5,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,499
• − Management: −$19,499
• − Depreciation: −$33,455
• Taxable income: $94,661
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$22,719
• After-tax cash flow: $85,259/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springs Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $75,413
• Composite: 51.42/100
• National rank: #1728
• State rank: #239 of 590 in NY

Livability — Springs

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #809
• US rank: #15666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springs, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+945.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Listed $1,150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $970,000 Public Records
• 1994-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,459 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.