4310 Bethlehem Rd · Choptank, MD 21655

$129,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 696 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1970 1.00 ac lot $185/sqft · 35% above area Est $95k · 35% over ↓ 28% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2 bedroom 1 bathroom quaint little home is located just minutes outside of Easton on a quiet single acre of land set back in the woods. The house itself will require work. Handyman special. The potential is here just requires some TLC. Large 2 car garage, great for storage or workshop. This property is located close to the Choptank River. Public marinas close by. Minutes to Preston, MD. Make this your own retreat from the hustle and bustle!

Key facts

• Small cottage home
• Detached garage
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• ONE ACRE COUNTRY LOCATION
• DETACHED GARAGE
• SMALL COTTAGE HOME

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 2 spaces; Front-entry garage with additional storage area; Driveway with circular drive
• Utilities: Well water; Private septic tank; Electric service available; Propane available
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Year built: estimated
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Block foundation with crawl space; Garage(s) on property
• Exterior features: Property backs to trees; Rural location

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven/range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Radiant heating; Window air conditioning units; Propane (leased) for heating; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Not furnished; 5 total rooms; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Water heater (electric)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $391 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#435 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing A, cost of living B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Caroline County Public Schools (rural): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #17 of 24 in MD (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 59 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Caroline County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.98%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,423
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: 35.19%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4310 Bethlehem Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0	696 (0%)	0mo	$130,500	$188	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $91,477
• Equity at exit: $112,295

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.89×
• Total profit: $248,964
• Equity at exit: $238,116

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21655

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,623 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $480	-5% $435	+0% $391	+5% $346	+10% $301
Rent	-10% $262	-5% $327	+0% $391	+5% $455	+10% $519
Rate	-1.0pp $456	-0.5pp $423	base $391	+0.5pp $357	+1.0pp $323

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-08
   listed $129,000 Active 312-char remark
2. 2021-05-14
   soldstatus $80,000
3. 2021-05-03
   soldstatus $80,000 Closed 450-char remark

   Show marketing remark (450 chars)

   This 2 bedroom 1 bathroom quaint little home is located just minutes outside of Easton on a quiet single acre of land set back in the woods. The house itself will require work. Handyman special. The potential is here just requires some TLC. Large 2 car garage, great for storage or workshop. This property is located close to the Choptank River. Public marinas close by. Minutes to Preston, MD. Make this your own retreat from the hustle and bustle!

4. 2021-04-12
   status Pending 450-char remark

   Show marketing remark (450 chars)

   This 2 bedroom 1 bathroom quaint little home is located just minutes outside of Easton on a quiet single acre of land set back in the woods. The house itself will require work. Handyman special. The potential is here just requires some TLC. Large 2 car garage, great for storage or workshop. This property is located close to the Choptank River. Public marinas close by. Minutes to Preston, MD. Make this your own retreat from the hustle and bustle!

5. 2021-03-30
   status Active 450-char remark

   Show marketing remark (450 chars)

   This 2 bedroom 1 bathroom quaint little home is located just minutes outside of Easton on a quiet single acre of land set back in the woods. The house itself will require work. Handyman special. The potential is here just requires some TLC. Large 2 car garage, great for storage or workshop. This property is located close to the Choptank River. Public marinas close by. Minutes to Preston, MD. Make this your own retreat from the hustle and bustle!

6. 2021-03-23
   historical Active Under Contract 450-char remark

   Show marketing remark (450 chars)

   This 2 bedroom 1 bathroom quaint little home is located just minutes outside of Easton on a quiet single acre of land set back in the woods. The house itself will require work. Handyman special. The potential is here just requires some TLC. Large 2 car garage, great for storage or workshop. This property is located close to the Choptank River. Public marinas close by. Minutes to Preston, MD. Make this your own retreat from the hustle and bustle!

7. 2021-03-01
   listed $120,000 Active 450-char remark

   Show marketing remark (450 chars)

   This 2 bedroom 1 bathroom quaint little home is located just minutes outside of Easton on a quiet single acre of land set back in the woods. The house itself will require work. Handyman special. The potential is here just requires some TLC. Large 2 car garage, great for storage or workshop. This property is located close to the Choptank River. Public marinas close by. Minutes to Preston, MD. Make this your own retreat from the hustle and bustle!

8. 2006-06-29
   soldstatus $160,000
9. 2006-06-15
   soldstatus $160,000

   Show marketing remark (261 chars)

   Country Charmer! 2BR, 1BA on a fabulous 1 acre lot only minutes fom Easton and Preston! This home offers a large 2 car garage and room to grow! A few cosmetics is all you would need to make this place fantastic!! Sellers are motivated and ready to move!! Hurry!

10. 2006-05-12
    historical

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Country Charmer! 2BR, 1BA on a fabulous 1 acre lot only minutes fom Easton and Preston! This home offers a large 2 car garage and room to grow! A few cosmetics is all you would need to make this place fantastic!! Sellers are motivated and ready to move!! Hurry!

11. 2006-05-05
    listed $180,000

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Country Charmer! 2BR, 1BA on a fabulous 1 acre lot only minutes fom Easton and Preston! This home offers a large 2 car garage and room to grow! A few cosmetics is all you would need to make this place fantastic!! Sellers are motivated and ready to move!! Hurry!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 51% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,475
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,558
• − Management: −$1,558
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $2,800
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$672
• After-tax cash flow: $4,015/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caroline County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400180
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $55,076
• Composite: 19.16/100
• National rank: #8823
• State rank: #17 of 24 in MD

Livability — Choptank

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #435
• US rank: #24829

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,995

Population outlook (Caroline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,205 people
• By 2030: 30,204 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 27,866 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 25,342 · -18.8%
• By 2075: 20,554 · -34.1%
• By 2100: 17,415 · -44.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caroline

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 29.9% · R 67.9% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.0pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+32.9 2016: R+39.5 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+23.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.58%
• Current HPI: 319.9345
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-27.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Sold (MLS) $130,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-19 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $129,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-03 Sold (MLS) $80,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-04-12 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-03-30 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-03-23 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-03-01 Listed $120,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-15 Sold (MLS) $160,000 MRIS
• 2006-05-12 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-05-05 Listed $180,000 MRIS

Property tax history

-10.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $175 · +24.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.