215 Orchard St · Mount Airy, NC 27030

$139,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,714 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1900 0.44 ac lot Est $255k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great convenient location, near schools, shopping, large older home with large formal dining and living room, wood floors,front porch, large back yard. agent/broker owned

Key facts

• 0.44 acre lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 16 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building total area: 2,787 (information provided); Lot size: 0.445 acre
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Residential stick/site-built house; Two levels; Built in 1900; One fireplace in the living room
• Construction: Wood siding exterior
• Exterior features: Public-maintained road access; Lot dimensions approximately 249.3 x 73.44 x 255.08 x 73.25 ft

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom located on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 2 half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Heating fuel: coal, natural gas, and wood
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on main level; Carpet and wood flooring; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Basement utility area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.1% in Mount Airy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#473 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Mount Airy City Schools (town): math 51% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #69 of 178 in NC (top 39%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 243 units permitted in Surry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Surry County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $140k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,801 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.47%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,386
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
245 Orchard St	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,688 (-2%)	10mo	$224,500	$133	84
931 Willow St	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,714 (0%)	22mo	$305,000	$178	79
229 Orchard St	0.03mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,774 (+4%)	11mo	$442,500	$249	79
1009 Mitchell St	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,858 (+8%)	12mo	$235,000	$126	64
140 W Poplar St	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,865 (+9%)	11mo	$175,000	$94	62
1534 Five Oaks Trl	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,774 (+4%)	2mo	$317,500	$179	53
245 E Lebanon St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,628 (-5%)	12mo	$154,000	$95	53
223 Fairview Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,703 (-1%)	23mo	$250,000	$147	49
420 Junction St	0.67mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,620 (-6%)	0mo	$75,000	$46	48
364 Woodruff St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,881 (+10%)	12mo	$279,900	$149	45
239 E Elm St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,540 (-10%)	17mo	$270,000	$175	45
233 E Elm St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,540 (-10%)	18mo	$270,000	$175	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-5,103
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $18,043
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27030

• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,430 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $732/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,080

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $356	-5% $316	+0% $277	+5% $237	+10% $197
Rent	-10% $164	-5% $220	+0% $277	+5% $333	+10% $390
Rate	-1.0pp $347	-0.5pp $312	base $277	+0.5pp $240	+1.0pp $203

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   price $139,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,900 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $159,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,900 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    remarks 309-char remark
14. 2026-06-05
    listed $159,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $732 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,147 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$415/yr (+$35/mo · 56.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,157
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$732
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,373
• − Management: −$1,373
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $1,074
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$258
• After-tax cash flow: $3,061/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Airy City Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703210
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $33,113
• Composite: 41.19/100
• National rank: #3546
• State rank: #69 of 178 in NC

Livability — Mount Airy

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #473
• US rank: #17188

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Airy, NC
• County: Surry County · 36,241 people
• City population: 36,241
• Metro: Mount Airy, NC
• Population (ZIP): 36,241
• Household income: $46,377
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Surry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,473 people
• By 2030: 66,964 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 60,967 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 54,102 · -22.1%
• By 2075: 38,806 · -44.1%
• By 2100: 24,711 · -64.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Surry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.3) · D 23.0% · R 76.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -28.0pp · 2024: -53.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.3 2020: R+51.4 2016: R+50.7 2012: R+36.9 2008: R+28.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.64%
• Current HPI: 177.1549
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Mount Airy, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+299.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $159,900 Triad MLS
• 2013-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 2013-06-26 Sold (MLS) $89,000 Triad MLS
• 2012-11-29 Listed $92,500 Triad MLS
• 1999-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1999-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $732 · +20.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.