10448 Oboe Way · Elk Grove, CA 95757

$545,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,632 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 131 Days on market

Built 2023 1,760 sqft lot $334/sqft · at area comps Est $563k · at est. $72/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome Home to Modern Living in Sterling Meadows! Built in 2023, this beautifully upgraded smart home in one of Elk Grove's most sought-after communities is everything a first-time buyer has been waiting for and it's move-in ready. Imagine cooking in your gourmet kitchen with a gas range, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and soft-close cabinetry, then stepping through sliding glass doors into your own private backyard retreat. The open-concept layout makes entertaining effortless and everyday living a joy. Upstairs, your spacious primary suite is your personal sanctuary complete with a large walk-in closet, dual sinks, and a soaking tub perfect for unwinding after a long

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Walk-in closet
• Smart home

Tags

• SMART HOME
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• JACK-AND-JILL BATHROOM
• UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $545k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (45.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (43.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $296k (45.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#212 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 295 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $58k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $54k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$94k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($480k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $296,031 (45.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.08%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 14.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $562,890
• List price: $545,000
• Delta: -3.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10520 Oboe Way	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,632 (0%)	0mo	$500,000	$306	95
10502 Oboe Way	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,632 (0%)	5mo	$505,000	$309	92
8851 Solo Way	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,632 (0%)	3mo	$524,800	$322	89
10545 Tenor Way	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,632 (0%)	4mo	$500,000	$306	88
10569 Tenor Way	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,632 (0%)	3mo	$505,000	$309	87
10517 Etude Way	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,454 (-11%)	1mo	$577,000	$397	72
10349 Charles Morris Way	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,603 (-2%)	2mo	$625,000	$390	68
10352 Charles Morris Way	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,603 (-2%)	3mo	$605,000	$377	67
8830 Encore Way	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,454 (-11%)	4mo	$570,000	$392	67
10367 Evangaline Way	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,644 (+1%)	0mo	$592,500	$360	62
10360 Evangaline Way	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,644 (+1%)	5mo	$549,000	$334	59
8977 E Valley Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,505 (-8%)	5mo	$540,000	$359	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $212,014
• Equity at exit: $490,979

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.62×
• Total profit: $705,623
• Equity at exit: $1,058,815

Cash invested: $152,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95757

• Home prices YoY: 13.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 14.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,088 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,858
• Tax from tax record: −$692 /mo · $8,299/yr
• Insurance: −$227
• HOA: −$72
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$648
• Net cashflow: $-1,409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,872

Max offer price $296,031

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $136,250
• Closing costs: $16,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10568 Trill Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1815	$2,900	$1.60	2d	1	0.16mi
10568 Trill Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1815	$2,900	$1.60	1d	1	0.16mi
10191 Gatemont Cir Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,800	$1.56	23d	1	0.72mi
10087 Emerald Grove Dr Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1354	$2,575	$1.90	43d	1	0.96mi
8376 Solfrid Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2070	$3,200	$1.55	17d	1	1.08mi
8357 Eleodoro Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1730	$3,245	$1.88	2d	1	1.11mi
8357 Luan Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1967	$2,895	$1.47	19d	1	1.19mi
10114 Elise Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2214	$2,995	$1.35	7d	1	1.41mi
10110 Elise Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1628	$3,300	$2.03	7d	1	1.42mi
8403 Sinesky Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1579	$2,995	$1.90	10d	1	1.47mi
10365 Bayson Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2018	$3,300	$1.64	21d	1	1.48mi
10365 Bayson Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2018	$3,300	$1.64	20d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $72 · $864/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $545,000 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $545,000 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $545,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $545,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $545,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $545,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $545,000 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $545,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $545,000 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $545,000 Active 118 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,299 · $692/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,299 · $692/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 5% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,054
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,528
• − Property taxes: −$8,299
• − Insurance: −$2,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,964
• − Management: −$2,964
• − HOA: −$864
• − Depreciation: −$15,855
• Taxable loss: −$27,146
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,515
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Elk Grove

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #6681

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elk Grove, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 190,119
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 56,764
• Household income: $138,198
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 40% White 21% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 7% Chinese 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.15%
• Current HPI: 328.5885
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+29.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,299 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.