148 Sweet Cir · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$79,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 418 Days on market

Built 1986 5,001 sqft lot $279/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW ROOF OCTOBER 2025!!! NEW HVAC 2025!!! PLUS. .. SELLERS ARE OFFERING SIX MONTHS FREE HOA DUES TO BE PAID FOR BUYER. Won't find these newbies on very many homes. Fully furnished 2 bedroom/2 bath home in Orange Manor West. Enjoy your mornings/evenings on your spacious, enclosed lanai. Located in Southeast Winter Haven this park offers easy access to a variety of local restaurants, grocery stores and attractions. This fully furnished home comes with one share of Orange Manor West Co-Op. Monthly fees include cable, internet and trash pick up. Residents enjoy community pool, clubhouse, horseshoes billiards, mini gold, shuffleboard, fishing, bingo, arts and crafts and MORE. Another great fe

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Community pool
• Enclosed lanai

Tags

• ENCLOSED LANAI
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• RECENTLY INSTALLED HVAC

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,248 square feet; Lot size about 0.11 acre (0 to less than 1/4 acre); Unit is listed as residential manufactured home
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA required with monthly fee of $279.50; Association amenities: Cable TV, Internet, Trash included; Clubhouse, Pool, Shuffleboard court, Gated community; Buyer/association approval required; Senior community; pets not allowed; Total annual association fees reported

Exterior

• Parking: Carport for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water available; Electricity available; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces south
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Other roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a Fuquay MH model
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed front porch; Patio/porch with sliding doors; Shed(s); Asphalt road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s); Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $207 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 680 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 418 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $80k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 418 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.99%
• DSCR: 2.51
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-1,326
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $9,535
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 680
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,868 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,329/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$279
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,606

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3889 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$2,000	$1.35	23d	1	0.57mi
3916 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,695	$1.32	3d	1	0.60mi
3912 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,900	$1.28	21d	1	0.60mi
4981 Kaia Ave Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,875	$1.48	19d	1	0.63mi
4973 Kaia Ave Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,900	$1.28	3d	1	0.63mi
670 Eagle Landing Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,999	$1.35	3d	1	0.80mi
3063 Laurel Oak Ln Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,695	$1.34	14d	1	1.03mi
3063 Laurel Oak Ln Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,695	$1.34	23d	1	1.03mi
1734 Carnostie Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1418	$2,050	$1.45	23d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $279 · $3,348/yr
• Likely covers: trashinternetcablepool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $79,900 Pending 418 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $79,900 Active 417 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $79,900 Active 416 DOM
4. 2026-01-14
   price $79,900
5. 2025-04-10
   listed $89,900 Active
6. 2025-04-10
   historical
7. 2025-01-24
   price $98,500
8. 2024-10-14
   listed $115,500 Active
9. 2024-09-04
   price $115,500
10. 2024-08-31
    historical
11. 2024-03-19
    status Active
12. 2024-03-18
    historical
13. 2024-02-19
    listed $130,500 Active
14. 2012-11-30
    soldstatus $34,950
15. 2010-12-03
    listed $34,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,329 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,329 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 48% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,417
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,329
• − Insurance: −$5,518
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,793
• − Management: −$1,793
• − HOA: −$3,348
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $1,836
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$441
• After-tax cash flow: $2,046/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+128.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-10 Listed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-24 Price Changed $98,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-14 Listed $115,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-04 Price Changed $115,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-19 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-19 Listed $130,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-30 Sold (MLS) $34,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-12-03 Listed $34,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,329 · +14.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.