619 Madison Ave · Moberly, MO 65270

$84,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 998 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1940 9,796 sqft lot Est $123k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property has been rented by the same tenant for the last 20+ years and tenant wishes to remain. Currently rented for $500/month. Full, unfinished basement has additional bathroom. Attached two-car garage.

Key facts

• 9,796 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1940

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located on Madison Ave; directions: From Morley/Hwy 24 intersection go south on Morley to east on Madison Ave — property on the north side of the street

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential property; Residential property
• Construction: About 998 square feet of finished living area
• Exterior features: Garden; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Full basement

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $84,950 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$122,754) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $536 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 4.5% in Moberly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in MO, #3,045 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Moberly (town): math 30% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #246 of 324 in MO (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randolph County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $85k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $77,304 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.05%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $122,754
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
609 Franklin Ave	0.09mi	3/2.0	996 (-0%)	3mo	$187,500	$188	93
401 Fulton Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0	974 (-2%)	2mo	$169,900	$174	80
625 Franklin Ave	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	968 (-3%)	8mo	$124,900	$129	76
622 Union Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,014 (+2%)	14mo	$125,000	$123	72
800 Union Ave	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,034 (+4%)	12mo	$115,000	$111	65
818 Vincil St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-4%)	6mo	$99,900	$104	62
602 Vincil St	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	937 (-6%)	7mo	$69,900	$75	59
520 Taylor St	0.41mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,053 (+6%)	12mo	$124,900	$119	55
524 Barrow St	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (-9%)	5mo	$119,900	$131	49
712 Farror St	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,118 (+12%)	3mo	$135,000	$121	46
486 E Rollins St	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	930 (-7%)	10mo	$82,900	$89	39
527 E Burkhart St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+14%)	14mo	$147,900	$130	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $20,360
• Equity at exit: $12,666

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $61,617
• Equity at exit: $7,345

Cash invested: $23,786 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65270

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,340 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $501/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $536

Break-even live

Break-even rent $662

Max offer price $84,950

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,238
• Closing costs: $2,548
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   status Active
3. 2026-04-01
   status Active
4. 2026-03-20
   price $84,950
5. 2026-03-20
   price $84,950
6. 2026-03-05
   status Active
7. 2026-03-05
   status Active
8. 2026-01-05
   status Pending
9. 2025-11-24
   historical
10. 2025-11-03
    price $99,900
11. 2025-11-03
    price $99,900
12. 2025-10-08
    listed $109,900 Active
13. 2025-10-08
    listed $109,900 Active
14. 2024-06-13
    historical 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Property has been rented by the same tenant for the last 20+ years and tenant wishes to remain. Currently rented for $500/month. Full, unfinished basement has additional bathroom. Attached two-car garage.

15. 2019-06-18
    soldstatus
16. 2019-06-18
    soldstatus $36,000
17. 2019-05-29
    listed $38,000 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Property has been rented by the same tenant for the last 20+ years and tenant wishes to remain. Currently rented for $500/month. Full, unfinished basement has additional bathroom. Attached two-car garage.

18. 2019-05-28
    listed $38,000
19. 2004-12-20
    soldstatus $28,000
20. 1995-09-05
    soldstatus
21. 1983-03-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $501 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $824 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$323/yr (+$27/mo · 64.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,083
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,759
• − Property taxes: −$501
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,287
• − Management: −$1,287
• − Depreciation: −$2,471
• Taxable income: $5,353
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,285
• After-tax cash flow: $5,148/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moberly
• NCES district ID: 2921100
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $36,160
• Composite: 27.35/100
• National rank: #6984
• State rank: #246 of 324 in MO

Livability — Moberly

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #3045

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moberly, MO
• Population (ZIP): 16,762

Population outlook (Randolph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,596 people
• By 2030: 24,213 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 23,184 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 22,081 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 18,994 · -22.8%
• By 2100: 15,070 · -38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randolph

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.2) · D 23.3% · R 75.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.9pp toward R · 2008: -23.3pp · 2024: -52.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.2 2020: R+51.5 2016: R+50.9 2012: R+36.6 2008: R+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.15%
• Current HPI: 199.9743
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+203.4% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — RCBR
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — CBORMLS
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — RCBR
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $84,950 RCBR
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $84,950 CBORMLS
• 2026-03-05 Relisted — CBORMLS
• 2026-03-05 Relisted — RCBR
• 2026-01-05 Pending — CBORMLS
• 2025-11-24 Delisted — CBORMLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $99,900 RCBR
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $99,900 CBORMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $109,900 CBORMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $109,900 RCBR
• 2024-06-13 Delisted — RCBR
• 2019-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-18 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2019-05-29 Listed $38,000 RCBR
• 2019-05-28 Listed $38,000 CBORMLS
• 2004-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 1995-09-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1983-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $501 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.