5130 Sagewood Dr · College Station, TX 77845

$282,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,405 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 2011 5,932 sqft lot $201/sqft · 8% above area Est $260k · 8% over $34/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• ARV discount +3.7/15.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this warm, thoughtfully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence with a cozy study framed by French doors and built-in shelving—perfect for a home office or quiet retreat. The open floorplan invites conversation and togetherness, anchored by an eating bar that gently links the kitchen, dining area and living room, where a raised ceiling and electric fireplace create a bright, comfortable gathering space. The kitchen shines with tall cabinets, wraparound countertops and beautiful granite installed three years ago. Luxury vinyl flows through the living areas and bedrooms while tile graces the baths. The peaceful master suite features a generous walk-in closet and a remodeled bathroom with double sinks and a fully tiled, separate shower. Thoughtful updates three years ago include fresh interior paint, new light fixtures and ceiling fans, and replaced cabinet pulls and fixtures; the hot water heater was replaced five years ago. Practical perks include a partially floored attic and garage ventilation. Outside, a large backyard invites play, gardening and weekend barbecues, and the community provides a pool and playground. Come feel the welcoming charm for yourself!

Key facts

• Raised ceiling
• Open floorplan
• French doors

Tags

• FRENCH DOORS
• BUILT-IN SHELVING
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• EATING BAR
• RAISED CEILING
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $282k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $260 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.3% in College Station — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#11 in TX, #994 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-.
• College Station ISD (urban): math 58% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #113 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 1168 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 93% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $265,080 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.94%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,176
• List price: $282,000
• Delta: 8.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5104 Sagewood Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,423 (+1%)	5mo	$260,000	$183	87
5225 Sagewood Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,364 (-3%)	11mo	$265,000	$194	79
15121 Meredith Ln	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,597 (+14%)	3mo	$263,500	$165	66
15220 Meredith Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-8%)	14mo	$255,000	$198	60
5284 Sagewood Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,546 (+10%)	13mo	$295,000	$191	52
5131 Stewart Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+15%)	8mo	$315,000	$196	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-28,750
• Equity at exit: $42,047

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-2,038
• Equity at exit: $24,382

Cash invested: $78,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77845

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 1168
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,809 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,479
• Tax from tax record: −$329 /mo · $3,951/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,480

Max offer price $282,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,500
• Closing costs: $8,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5291 Dymple Ln Unit 1328083P College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$4,295	$3.56	13d	1	1.05mi
4206 Carnes Ct S College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1840	$2,300	$1.25	13d	1	1.12mi
15232 Still Water Meadow Loop College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,300	$1.61	44d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $34 · $408/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectricpool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $282,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $282,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $282,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $282,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $282,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $282,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $282,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $282,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $282,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $282,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $282,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $282,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $282,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $282,000 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $282,000 Active 57 DOM
16. 2026-04-03
    listed $282,000 Active 1195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (954 chars)

    Thoughtfully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a study framed by French doors and built-in shelving. An open floorplan with an eating bar that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining area and living room—where a raised ceiling and electric fireplace add light and warmth. The kitchen has tall cabinets, wraparound countertops and granite surfaces installed three years ago. Luxury vinyl flooring flows through the living areas and bedrooms, with tile in the baths. The master suite offers a large walk-in closet and a remodeled bathroom with double sinks and a tiled, separate shower. Recent improvements completed three years ago include new light fixtures and ceiling fans, fresh interior paint, and updated cabinet pulls and fixtures; the water heater was replaced five years ago. Practical touches include a partially floored attic and garage ventilation. A large backyard and the community pool and playground provides room for entertaining.

17. 2026-04-03
    listed $282,000 Active 954-char remark

    Show marketing remark (954 chars)

    Thoughtfully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a study framed by French doors and built-in shelving. An open floorplan with an eating bar that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining area and living room—where a raised ceiling and electric fireplace add light and warmth. The kitchen has tall cabinets, wraparound countertops and granite surfaces installed three years ago. Luxury vinyl flooring flows through the living areas and bedrooms, with tile in the baths. The master suite offers a large walk-in closet and a remodeled bathroom with double sinks and a tiled, separate shower. Recent improvements completed three years ago include new light fixtures and ceiling fans, fresh interior paint, and updated cabinet pulls and fixtures; the water heater was replaced five years ago. Practical touches include a partially floored attic and garage ventilation. A large backyard and the community pool and playground provides room for entertaining.

18. 2011-11-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,951 · $329/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,161 · $430/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,210/yr (+$101/mo · 30.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 93% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,708
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,796
• − Property taxes: −$3,951
• − Insurance: −$1,410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,697
• − Management: −$2,697
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$8,204
• Taxable loss: −$1,454
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$349
• After-tax cash flow: $3,463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: College Station ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807350
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,991
• Composite: 46.54/100
• National rank: #2428
• State rank: #113 of 826 in TX

Livability — College Station

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #994

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety B User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazos County · 233,400 people
• City population: 131,628
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 76,764
• Household income: $88,851
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3329.0

Population outlook (Brazos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,942 people
• By 2030: 296,630 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 354,560 · +32.3%
• By 2050: 414,616 · +54.7%
• By 2075: 562,158 · +109.8%
• By 2100: 678,828 · +153.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Asian 8% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazos

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.9% · R 61.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+14.3 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+35.3 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.31%
• Current HPI: 175.9669
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.13%
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $282,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $282,000 BCSRMLS
• 2011-11-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,951 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.