16228 Tisons Bluff Rd · Jacksonville, FL 32218

$200,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,860 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2014 5,662 sqft lot Est $355k · 44% under $6/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Multiple Offers Received! Please submit your highest and best by 10am 12/7. Beautiful 4 bedroom 2 bathroom open floor home in Yellow Bluff Landing, features stucco and ledgestone exterior, pendant lights, rear covered patio, bay window and double step tray ceiling in the master bedroom, and stainless steel appliances. The fenced backyard provides low maintenance with stepping stones, a picnic space and a playset area that can be converted into a fire pit space for family and friends to enjoy. Community amenities include a resort-style pool, kid's splash park with slides & fountains, fitness center, lighted tennis courts, basketball courts, soccer field, sand volleyball court, clubhouse with kitchen. Close to shopping, airport, parks and UF Hospital.

Key facts

• 5,662 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2014

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association with an annual fee of $75; CDD fee applies (amount noted)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Used as a residential single-family home
• Exterior features: Lot is approximately 0.13 acres; No private pool

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances specified
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No built-in appliances listed
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 728 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.64%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $355,260
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
76 Pond Run Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,860 (0%)	4mo	$300,000	$161	83
16199 Tisons Bluff Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,737 (-7%)	5mo	$309,000	$178	77
16205 Tisons Bluff Rd	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,709 (-8%)	6mo	$330,000	$193	74
15786 Tisons Bluff Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,024 (+9%)	5mo	$294,000	$145	61
15871 Great Lakes Cir	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,914 (+3%)	6mo	$304,500	$159	60
15959 Great Lakes Cir	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (-9%)	3mo	$325,000	$191	53
15811 Jim Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,732 (-7%)	9mo	$375,000	$217	48
16048 Hutton Ln	0.29mi	3/4.0 (-1)	1,595 (-14%)	4mo	$322,000	$202	47
164 Northside Dr N	0.58mi	4/2.0	2,124 (+14%)	8mo	$408,000	$192	42
687 Northside Dr S	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,605 (-14%)	9mo	$320,000	$199	39
15813 Pinyon Ln	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,086 (+12%)	8mo	$365,000	$175	38
15796 Pinyon Ln	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,135 (+15%)	9mo	$350,000	$164	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-25,495
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-30,959
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32218

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 728
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,423 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$560 /mo · $6,718/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,149

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16295 Tisons Bluff Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	2280	$2,349	$1.03	23d	1	0.13mi
219 Terrapin Ct Jacksonville, FL	4.0–5.0	2.5–3.0	2307	$2,395	$1.04	2d	2	0.26mi
96 Bradford Lake Cir Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	2426	$2,395	$0.99	23d	1	0.44mi
15670 Coulter Ct Jacksonville, FL	4.0	3.0	2128	$2,300	$1.08	23d	1	0.90mi
15662 Chir Pine Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1913	$2,350	$1.23	4d	1	0.94mi
15584 Moss Hollow Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1789	$950	$0.53	23d	1	1.01mi
15803 Douglas Lake Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1857	$2,056	$1.11	7d	1	1.32mi
15704 Stedman Lake Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	3.0	2027	$2,300	$1.13	7d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $200,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $230,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $230,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $230,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    listed $230,000 Active
15. 2022-01-13
    soldstatus $330,000
16. 2022-01-03
    soldstatus $330,000 Sold 764-char remark

    Show marketing remark (764 chars)

    Multiple Offers Received! Please submit your highest and best by 10am 12/7. Beautiful 4 bedroom 2 bathroom open floor home in Yellow Bluff Landing, features stucco and ledgestone exterior, pendant lights, rear covered patio, bay window and double step tray ceiling in the master bedroom, and stainless steel appliances. The fenced backyard provides low maintenance with stepping stones, a picnic space and a playset area that can be converted into a fire pit space for family and friends to enjoy. Community amenities include a resort-style pool, kid's splash park with slides & fountains, fitness center, lighted tennis courts, basketball courts, soccer field, sand volleyball court, clubhouse with kitchen. Close to shopping, airport, parks and UF Hospital.

17. 2021-12-28
    status Pending 764-char remark

    Show marketing remark (764 chars)

    Multiple Offers Received! Please submit your highest and best by 10am 12/7. Beautiful 4 bedroom 2 bathroom open floor home in Yellow Bluff Landing, features stucco and ledgestone exterior, pendant lights, rear covered patio, bay window and double step tray ceiling in the master bedroom, and stainless steel appliances. The fenced backyard provides low maintenance with stepping stones, a picnic space and a playset area that can be converted into a fire pit space for family and friends to enjoy. Community amenities include a resort-style pool, kid's splash park with slides & fountains, fitness center, lighted tennis courts, basketball courts, soccer field, sand volleyball court, clubhouse with kitchen. Close to shopping, airport, parks and UF Hospital.

18. 2021-12-08
    historical Active - Contingent 764-char remark

    Show marketing remark (764 chars)

    Multiple Offers Received! Please submit your highest and best by 10am 12/7. Beautiful 4 bedroom 2 bathroom open floor home in Yellow Bluff Landing, features stucco and ledgestone exterior, pendant lights, rear covered patio, bay window and double step tray ceiling in the master bedroom, and stainless steel appliances. The fenced backyard provides low maintenance with stepping stones, a picnic space and a playset area that can be converted into a fire pit space for family and friends to enjoy. Community amenities include a resort-style pool, kid's splash park with slides & fountains, fitness center, lighted tennis courts, basketball courts, soccer field, sand volleyball court, clubhouse with kitchen. Close to shopping, airport, parks and UF Hospital.

19. 2021-12-03
    listed $310,000 Active 764-char remark

    Show marketing remark (764 chars)

    Multiple Offers Received! Please submit your highest and best by 10am 12/7. Beautiful 4 bedroom 2 bathroom open floor home in Yellow Bluff Landing, features stucco and ledgestone exterior, pendant lights, rear covered patio, bay window and double step tray ceiling in the master bedroom, and stainless steel appliances. The fenced backyard provides low maintenance with stepping stones, a picnic space and a playset area that can be converted into a fire pit space for family and friends to enjoy. Community amenities include a resort-style pool, kid's splash park with slides & fountains, fitness center, lighted tennis courts, basketball courts, soccer field, sand volleyball court, clubhouse with kitchen. Close to shopping, airport, parks and UF Hospital.

20. 2015-01-09
    soldstatus $190,000 Sold 558-char remark

    Show marketing remark (558 chars)

    The Sanibel floor plan in Yellow Bluff Landing features impressive architectural shingles, stucco and ledgestone front, pendant lights, rear covered patio,bay window and double step tray ceiling at master bedroom, and stainless steel appliances. Enjoy luxurious living at an affordable price with exclusive amenities featuring a resort-style pool, kid’s splash park with slides & fountains, fitness center, lighted tennis courts, basketball courts, soccer field, sand volleyball court, clubhouse with kitchen, expansive covered porch and fireplace.

21. 2014-10-11
    status Active 558-char remark

    Show marketing remark (558 chars)

    The Sanibel floor plan in Yellow Bluff Landing features impressive architectural shingles, stucco and ledgestone front, pendant lights, rear covered patio,bay window and double step tray ceiling at master bedroom, and stainless steel appliances. Enjoy luxurious living at an affordable price with exclusive amenities featuring a resort-style pool, kid’s splash park with slides & fountains, fitness center, lighted tennis courts, basketball courts, soccer field, sand volleyball court, clubhouse with kitchen, expansive covered porch and fireplace.

22. 2014-10-10
    historical 558-char remark

    Show marketing remark (558 chars)

    The Sanibel floor plan in Yellow Bluff Landing features impressive architectural shingles, stucco and ledgestone front, pendant lights, rear covered patio,bay window and double step tray ceiling at master bedroom, and stainless steel appliances. Enjoy luxurious living at an affordable price with exclusive amenities featuring a resort-style pool, kid’s splash park with slides & fountains, fitness center, lighted tennis courts, basketball courts, soccer field, sand volleyball court, clubhouse with kitchen, expansive covered porch and fireplace.

23. 2014-10-08
    listed $199,990 Active 558-char remark

    Show marketing remark (558 chars)

    The Sanibel floor plan in Yellow Bluff Landing features impressive architectural shingles, stucco and ledgestone front, pendant lights, rear covered patio,bay window and double step tray ceiling at master bedroom, and stainless steel appliances. Enjoy luxurious living at an affordable price with exclusive amenities featuring a resort-style pool, kid’s splash park with slides & fountains, fitness center, lighted tennis courts, basketball courts, soccer field, sand volleyball court, clubhouse with kitchen, expansive covered porch and fireplace.

24. 2013-10-11
    soldstatus $6,090,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,718 · $560/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,718 · $560/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$6,718
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,326
• − Management: −$2,326
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$384
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$92
• After-tax cash flow: $2,689/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 72,905
• Household income: $69,638
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2289.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.73%
• Current HPI: 262.2329
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.40%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-96.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $230,000 realMLS
• 2022-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $330,000 Public Records
• 2022-01-03 Sold (MLS) $330,000 realMLS
• 2021-12-28 Pending — realMLS
• 2021-12-08 Contingent — realMLS
• 2021-12-03 Listed $310,000 realMLS
• 2015-01-09 Sold (MLS) $190,000 realMLS
• 2014-10-11 Relisted — realMLS
• 2014-10-10 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2014-10-08 Listed $199,990 realMLS
• 2013-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $6,090,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,718 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.