21 Locust St · Aquebogue, NY 11901

$695,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,305 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1940 6,534 sqft lot $533/sqft · 35% below area Est $1070k · 35% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your next opportunity in Aquebogue! Nestled on a quiet street, 21 Locust St offers the perfect blend of comfort, charm, and potential in the heart of Long Island’s sought-after North Fork. This inviting home features a comfortable layout filled with natural light, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere from the moment you step inside. The living areas are ideal for both relaxing and entertaining, while the kitchen provides ample space to customize and make your own. Generously sized 2 bedrooms offer comfort and flexibility, perfect for a variety of lifestyles. Outside, enjoy a private yard with room to garden, entertain, or simply unwind. Whether you’re looking to create your dream outdoor oasis or enjoy peaceful evenings, this property delivers the space to do it all. Located just minutes from local vineyards, farm stands, beaches, and dining, this home offers the best of North Fork living while still being conveniently accessible. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, investor, or looking for a weekend retreat, 21 Locust St is full of potential and ready for its next chapter. Contact municipality with any building questions. Don’t miss the chance to make this property your own!

Key facts

• Private yard
• Beaches
• Farm stands

Tags

• PRIVATE YARD
• LOCAL VINEYARDS
• FARM STANDS
• BEACHES
• DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $695k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15k ($176k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($25k rent vs $695k).
• Recommended offer: $632k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#887 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $195k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($632k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $365k; list at $695k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $632,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 93.00%
• DSCR: 5.14
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,069,899
• List price: $695,000
• Delta: -35.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
610 Peconic Bay Blvd	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (+15%)	24mo	$700,000	$467	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 91.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.22×
• Total profit: $821,270
• Equity at exit: $103,627

10-year hold

• IRR: 94.0%
• Equity multiple: 10.86×
• Total profit: $1,919,226
• Equity at exit: $60,091

Cash invested: $194,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $25,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,645
• Tax from tax record: −$735 /mo · $8,820/yr
• Insurance: −$290
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,250
• Net cashflow: $14,654

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,450

Max offer price $695,000

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $173,750
• Closing costs: $20,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23 Scallop Ln South Jamesport, NY	3.0	2.0	1285	$25,000	$19.46	44d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $695,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $695,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $695,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $695,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $695,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $695,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $695,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $695,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $695,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $695,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $695,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $695,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $695,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-05-16
    price $695,000 1239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1239 chars)

    Welcome to your next opportunity in Aquebogue! Nestled on a quiet street, 21 Locust St offers the perfect blend of comfort, charm, and potential in the heart of Long Island’s sought-after North Fork. This inviting home features a comfortable layout filled with natural light, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere from the moment you step inside. The living areas are ideal for both relaxing and entertaining, while the kitchen provides ample space to customize and make your own. Generously sized 2 bedrooms offer comfort and flexibility, perfect for a variety of lifestyles. Outside, enjoy a private yard with room to garden, entertain, or simply unwind. Whether you’re looking to create your dream outdoor oasis or enjoy peaceful evenings, this property delivers the space to do it all. Located just minutes from local vineyards, farm stands, beaches, and dining, this home offers the best of North Fork living while still being conveniently accessible. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, investor, or looking for a weekend retreat, 21 Locust St is full of potential and ready for its next chapter. Contact municipality with any building questions. Don’t miss the chance to make this property your own!

15. 2026-03-16
    listed $748,000 Active 1239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1239 chars)

    Welcome to your next opportunity in Aquebogue! Nestled on a quiet street, 21 Locust St offers the perfect blend of comfort, charm, and potential in the heart of Long Island’s sought-after North Fork. This inviting home features a comfortable layout filled with natural light, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere from the moment you step inside. The living areas are ideal for both relaxing and entertaining, while the kitchen provides ample space to customize and make your own. Generously sized 2 bedrooms offer comfort and flexibility, perfect for a variety of lifestyles. Outside, enjoy a private yard with room to garden, entertain, or simply unwind. Whether you’re looking to create your dream outdoor oasis or enjoy peaceful evenings, this property delivers the space to do it all. Located just minutes from local vineyards, farm stands, beaches, and dining, this home offers the best of North Fork living while still being conveniently accessible. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, investor, or looking for a weekend retreat, 21 Locust St is full of potential and ready for its next chapter. Contact municipality with any building questions. Don’t miss the chance to make this property your own!

16. 2004-01-06
    soldstatus $365,000
17. 1988-08-31
    soldstatus $181,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,820 · $735/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,283 · $857/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,463/yr (+$122/mo · 16.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $300,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,931
• − Property taxes: −$8,820
• − Insurance: −$8,594
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$24,000
• − Management: −$24,000
• − Depreciation: −$20,218
• Taxable income: $175,437
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$42,105
• After-tax cash flow: $133,745/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Aquebogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #887
• US rank: #17213

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aquebogue, NY
• City population: 24
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+284.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $695,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Listed $748,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $365,000 Public Records
• 1988-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $181,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,820 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.