420 S Hibiscus Ave · Crystal River, FL 34429

$269,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,143 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1975 10,749 sqft lot Est $187k · 44% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom, 2 bath, 1 car garage in Tropic Terrace. Nice neighborhood, fenced back yard. Ozello water for home and well for watering. Home being sold "as is" with right to inspect.

Key facts

• Screened back porch
• Detached workshop
• New a/c

Tags

• OPEN FRONT PORCH
• SCREENED BACK PORCH
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• DETACHED WORKSHOP
• CHICKEN COOP
• NEW A/C

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: CLR

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Asphalt shingle roof; Block and slab foundation; Built as single-family residence
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Level lot; County road frontage; Subdivision: Tropic Terrace

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stone countertops
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ductless cooling; Electric heating
• Interior features: Stone countertops; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-385 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (25.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (38.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (38.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.1% in Crystal River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#603 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rock Crusher Elementary School (math 70% / reading 56%, grade B, #582 of 2,144 statewide, top 28%, 665 students, 68% FRL); Crystal River Middle School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade C-, #286 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 900 students, 64% FRL); Crystal River High School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 1,249 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 325 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $269k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,878 (38.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.07%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,452
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
455 S Camellia Ave	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,119 (-2%)	2mo	$183,000	$164	93

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-68,166
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-91,213
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34429

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Active inventory: 325
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,659 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,271/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $-385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,146

Max offer price $201,045

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
130 S Suncoast Blvd Crystal River, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	559	$1,091	$1.95	13d	4	0.44mi
540 N Afterglow Cir Crystal River, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,950	$1.97	21d	1	0.96mi
493 N Sams Pt Crystal River, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	21d	1	1.20mi
450 N Elmwood Pt Crystal River, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	21d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $269,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 693-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $269,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,271 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,233 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: +$962/yr (+$80/mo · 75.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$1,271
• − Insurance: −$2,142
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,592
• − Management: −$1,592
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$9,587
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,301
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal River

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #603
• US rank: #11564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,163
• Population (ZIP): 9,494

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.92%
• Current HPI: 271.3171
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+313.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $269,000 RACC
• 2019-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $118,000 Public Records
• 2002-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 2002-12-10 Sold (MLS) $62,000 RACC
• 2002-11-21 Listed $65,000 RACC

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,271 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.