23550 Deal Island Rd · Chance, MD 21821

$210,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 144 Days on market

Built 1974 0.38 ac lot $222/sqft · 14% above area Est $185k · 14% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +1.1/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Deal Island and this beautifully renovated home, where peaceful coastal living meets modern comfort. Located less than one mile from the public beach and boat ramp, and near the well-known Deal Island Labor Day Skipjack Race, this property offers a relaxed island lifestyle with a strong sense of community. Several nearby State Wildlife Management Areas add to the natural beauty and open surroundings that make Deal Island so special. This home has been completely renovated from top to bottom, with quality updates throughout. Improvements include a new roof, new soffit, new downspouts, and new gutters with gutter guards. Inside, you’ll find brand-new central air conditioning with ducts cleaned and relined, a new vapor barrier in the crawl space, and virtually everything in the home has been replaced—providing peace of mind and move-in-ready convenience. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence, a weekend getaway, or a quiet retreat away from the hustle and bustle, this home offers comfort, charm, and a unique island setting. Don’t miss the opportunity to own this beautifully updated property in Deal Island.

Key facts

• Renovated home
• New downspouts
• Public beach

Tags

• RENOVATED HOME
• PUBLIC BEACH
• BOAT RAMP
• NEW ROOF
• NEW SOFFIT
• NEW DOWNSPOUTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $211k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($373/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#427 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Somerset County Public Schools (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #22 of 24 in MD (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Somerset County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $54k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $211k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,725 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.98%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,552
• List price: $210,900
• Delta: 14.28%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23544 Deal Island Rd	0.02mi	3/1.5 (+1)	975 (+2%)	21mo	$185,000	$190	71
10868 Mahlon Price Rd	0.41mi	2/1.0	904 (-5%)	18mo	$180,000	$199	57
23281 Hastings	0.57mi	2/1.0	1,023 (+8%)	10mo	$227,000	$222	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $116,808
• Equity at exit: $189,995

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.80×
• Total profit: $342,352
• Equity at exit: $409,732

Cash invested: $59,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21821

• Home prices YoY: 19.4%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,757 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,106
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,162/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,718

Max offer price $210,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,725
• Closing costs: $6,327
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,900 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,900 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,900 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,900 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $210,900 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,900 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,900 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,900 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,900 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,900 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,900 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,900 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,900 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $210,900 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    price $210,900 1165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1165 chars)

    Welcome to Deal Island and this beautifully renovated home, where peaceful coastal living meets modern comfort. Located less than one mile from the public beach and boat ramp, and near the well-known Deal Island Labor Day Skipjack Race, this property offers a relaxed island lifestyle with a strong sense of community. Several nearby State Wildlife Management Areas add to the natural beauty and open surroundings that make Deal Island so special. This home has been completely renovated from top to bottom, with quality updates throughout. Improvements include a new roof, new soffit, new downspouts, and new gutters with gutter guards. Inside, you’ll find brand-new central air conditioning with ducts cleaned and relined, a new vapor barrier in the crawl space, and virtually everything in the home has been replaced—providing peace of mind and move-in-ready convenience. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence, a weekend getaway, or a quiet retreat away from the hustle and bustle, this home offers comfort, charm, and a unique island setting. Don’t miss the opportunity to own this beautifully updated property in Deal Island.

16. 2026-03-09
    price $255,900 1165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1165 chars)

    Welcome to Deal Island and this beautifully renovated home, where peaceful coastal living meets modern comfort. Located less than one mile from the public beach and boat ramp, and near the well-known Deal Island Labor Day Skipjack Race, this property offers a relaxed island lifestyle with a strong sense of community. Several nearby State Wildlife Management Areas add to the natural beauty and open surroundings that make Deal Island so special. This home has been completely renovated from top to bottom, with quality updates throughout. Improvements include a new roof, new soffit, new downspouts, and new gutters with gutter guards. Inside, you’ll find brand-new central air conditioning with ducts cleaned and relined, a new vapor barrier in the crawl space, and virtually everything in the home has been replaced—providing peace of mind and move-in-ready convenience. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence, a weekend getaway, or a quiet retreat away from the hustle and bustle, this home offers comfort, charm, and a unique island setting. Don’t miss the opportunity to own this beautifully updated property in Deal Island.

17. 2026-01-25
    listed $265,000 Active 1165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1165 chars)

    Welcome to Deal Island and this beautifully renovated home, where peaceful coastal living meets modern comfort. Located less than one mile from the public beach and boat ramp, and near the well-known Deal Island Labor Day Skipjack Race, this property offers a relaxed island lifestyle with a strong sense of community. Several nearby State Wildlife Management Areas add to the natural beauty and open surroundings that make Deal Island so special. This home has been completely renovated from top to bottom, with quality updates throughout. Improvements include a new roof, new soffit, new downspouts, and new gutters with gutter guards. Inside, you’ll find brand-new central air conditioning with ducts cleaned and relined, a new vapor barrier in the crawl space, and virtually everything in the home has been replaced—providing peace of mind and move-in-ready convenience. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence, a weekend getaway, or a quiet retreat away from the hustle and bustle, this home offers comfort, charm, and a unique island setting. Don’t miss the opportunity to own this beautifully updated property in Deal Island.

18. 2026-01-03
    historical
19. 2026-01-03
    listed $265,000 Active
20. 2025-12-12
    historical
21. 2023-08-15
    soldstatus $90,000
22. 2023-06-20
    soldstatus $90,000 Closed
23. 2023-06-08
    status Pending
24. 2023-05-11
    price $90,000
25. 2023-05-11
    status Active
26. 2023-05-02
    status Pending
27. 2023-04-05
    listed $129,900 Active
28. 2021-04-08
    soldstatus $78,000
29. 2021-04-07
    historical
30. 2021-04-06
    soldstatus $78,000 Closed
31. 2020-07-21
    status Pending
32. 2020-03-24
    listed $69,900 Active
33. 1993-11-04
    soldstatus $45,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,162 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,730 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: +$569/yr (+$47/mo · 48.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,087
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,814
• − Property taxes: −$1,162
• − Insurance: −$1,852
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,687
• − Management: −$1,687
• − Depreciation: −$6,135
• Taxable loss: −$3,250
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$780
• After-tax cash flow: $1,153/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Somerset County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400570
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $38,810
• Composite: 14.73/100
• National rank: #9396
• State rank: #22 of 24 in MD

Livability — Chance

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #427
• US rank: #24063

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chance, MD
• Population (ZIP): 736

Population outlook (Somerset County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,474 people
• By 2030: 23,547 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 21,498 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 20,427 · -16.5%
• By 2075: 16,594 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 12,132 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 3% Polish 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Somerset

• 2024 margin: R (+17.4) · D 40.2% · R 57.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.8pp toward R · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: -17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+17.9 2012: R+2.5 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 48.66%
• Current HPI: 299.89
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+359.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $210,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $255,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-25 Listed $265,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-03 Listed $265,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-12 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-20 Sold (MLS) $90,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-06-08 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-11 Price Changed $90,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-11 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-02 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-05 Listed $129,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-07 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-04-06 Sold (MLS) $78,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-07-21 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-03-24 Listed $69,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1993-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $45,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,162 · +13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.