302 S Paseo Aguila Unit B · Green Valley, AZ 85614

$87,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 588 sqft · Townhouse · 186 Days on market

Built 1964 Good condition $149/sqft · 25% below area Est $116k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This white-arch Villa is move in ready with fresh paint, updated bathroom, 2 yr old a/c, brand new range/oven. Complete with laundry room with washer and dryer. Washer and dryer sold as-is. This Villa is short distance to the neighborhood park and pool, Green Valley Rec. Centers and shopping at the Green Valley Village, Great for year round or seasonal living.

Key facts

• Updated bathroom
• Garage
• Built 1964

Tags

• BRAND NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• ATTACHED LAUNDRY STORAGE ROOM
• SHORT DISTANCE TO POOLS
• SHORT DISTANCE TO SHOPPING
• NEW QUARTZ KITCHEN CT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $88k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $393 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 4.7% in Green Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 733 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 103d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $605 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.6% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $88k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.26%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $116,059
• List price: $87,500
• Delta: -24.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
346 S Paseo Aguila Unit B	0.04mi	1/1.0	588 (0%)	2mo	$85,000	$145	97
424 S Paseo Aguila Unit C	0.12mi	1/1.0	588 (0%)	1mo	$125,000	$213	94
364 S Paseo Lobo Unit C	0.16mi	1/1.0	588 (0%)	2mo	$102,000	$173	91
381 S Paseo Madera Unit C	0.17mi	1/1.0	588 (0%)	1mo	$100,000	$170	91
468 S Paseo Aguila Unit C	0.17mi	1/1.0	588 (0%)	2mo	$75,000	$128	90
479 S Paseo Madera Unit C	0.22mi	1/1.0	588 (0%)	1mo	$93,500	$159	88
522 S Paseo Madera Unit C	0.28mi	1/1.0	588 (0%)	0mo	$59,000	$100	87
277 S Paseo Pena Unit C	0.28mi	1/1.0	588 (0%)	2mo	$76,000	$129	85
356 S Paseo Quinta Unit B	0.37mi	1/1.0	588 (0%)	0mo	$110,000	$187	82
135 S Paseo Quinta Unit B	0.37mi	1/1.0	588 (0%)	1mo	$89,500	$152	82
176 S Paseo Sarta Unit B	0.46mi	1/1.0	588 (0%)	2mo	$124,000	$211	77
436 S Paseo Cerro Unit B	0.15mi	1/1.0	648 (+10%)	2mo	$100,000	$154	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $14,274
• Equity at exit: $13,047

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $59,428
• Equity at exit: $7,565

Cash invested: $24,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 60 active · 41 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.8 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $113,000 ($181/sqft)
• Median days on market: 59 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +9.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85614

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 733
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,263 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$459
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$109 /mo · $1,312/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $393

Break-even live

Break-even rent $765

Max offer price $87,500

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $454	-5% $423	+0% $393	+5% $363	+10% $333
Rent	-10% $293	-5% $343	+0% $393	+5% $443	+10% $493
Rate	-1.0pp $437	-0.5pp $415	base $393	+0.5pp $371	+1.0pp $347

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,875
• Closing costs: $2,625
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
321 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	596	$1,000	$1.68	49d	1	0.01mi
321 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	596	$1,000	$1.68	55d	1	0.02mi
302 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,200	$1.72	9d	1	0.08mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	164d	1	0.08mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	143d	1	0.08mi
303 S Paseo Lobo Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,000	$1.44	164d	1	0.10mi
90 W Camino Manzana Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	164d	1	0.13mi
321 S Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,350	$1.94	10d	1	0.13mi
248 S Paseo Lobo Unit D Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,150	$1.65	10d	1	0.14mi
480 S Paseo Aguila Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$925	$1.57	122d	1	0.17mi
480 S Paseo Aguila Unit C Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$950	$1.62	122d	1	0.17mi
469 S Paseo Lobo Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	10d	1	0.17mi
478 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,000	$1.70	108d	1	0.18mi
424 Paseo Madera Unit C Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	2d	1	0.23mi
466 S Paseo Madera Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,100	$1.58	133d	1	0.24mi
466 Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,100	$1.58	158d	1	0.24mi
478 Paseo Madera Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,250	$2.13	164d	1	0.26mi
322 S La Canada Dr Unit D Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,200	$1.72	127d	1	0.26mi
329 S Paseo Pena Apt A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,150	$1.65	10d	1	0.27mi
408 S La Canada Dr Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,100	$1.58	2d	1	0.28mi
386 S La Canada Dr Unit C Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$1,150	$1.92	55d	1	0.29mi
232 S Paseo Pena Unit C Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,000	$1.70	103d	1	0.33mi
133 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,050	$1.79	120d	1	0.34mi
430 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,025	$1.47	155d	1	0.36mi
276 S Paseo Sarta Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$2,000	$2.87	31d	1	0.43mi
276 S Paseo Sarta Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$2,000	$2.87	21d	1	0.43mi
132 S Paseo Sarta Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	103d	1	0.47mi
132 S Paseo Sarta Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	10d	1	0.47mi
174 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,100	$1.87	103d	1	0.51mi
121 W Calle del Ano Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	554	$925	$1.67	2d	1	0.66mi
1022 S Calle de la Temporada Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	554	$1,100	$1.99	10d	1	0.70mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $87,500 Active 186 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $87,500 Active 185 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $87,500 Active 184 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $87,500 Active 183 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $87,500 Active 182 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $87,500 Active 180 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $87,500 Active 179 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $87,500 Active 178 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $87,500 Active 177 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $87,500 Active 176 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $87,500 Active 175 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $87,500 Active 174 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $87,500 Active 173 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $87,500 Active 172 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $87,500 Active 171 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $87,500 Active 170 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $87,500 Active 169 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $87,500 Active 168 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $87,500 Active 167 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $87,500 Active 166 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $87,500 Active 165 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $87,500 Active 164 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $87,500 Active 163 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $87,500 Active 162 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $87,500 Active 161 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $87,500 Active 160 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $87,500 Active 159 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $87,500 Active 158 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $87,500 Active 157 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $87,500 Active 156 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $87,500 Active 155 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $87,500 Active 154 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $87,500 Active 153 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $87,500 Active 152 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $87,500 Active 151 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $87,500 Active 150 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $87,500 Active 149 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $87,500 Active 148 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $87,500 Active 147 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $87,500 Active 146 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $87,500 Active 145 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $87,500 Active 144 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $87,500 Active 142 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $87,500 Active 141 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $87,500 Active 140 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $87,500 Active 139 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $87,500 Active 138 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $87,500 Active 137 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $87,500 Active 136 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $87,500 Active 135 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,901
• − Property taxes: −$1,312
• − Insurance: −$438
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,213
• − Management: −$1,213
• − Depreciation: −$2,545
• Taxable income: $3,536
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$849
• After-tax cash flow: $3,870/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $2,940–$8,820 screening

This move-in ready, well-maintained condo features updated bathrooms, new flooring, and fresh paint, making it an attractive investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale new quartz countertops — enhances kitchen appeal ↑
• Both new flooring — improves both resale and rental value ↑
• Both new paint — refreshes interior and exterior ↑
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Continental Elementary School F AZ #418/1,109 Nat'l #20,973/41,679

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,066,056 people
• City population: 25,381
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,381
• Household income: $64,879
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 29% of renters

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Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.05%
• Current HPI: 250.5933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+6.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $87,500 Fizber.com
• 2026-03-08 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-23 Listed $1 MLSSAZ
• 2014-08-04 Sold (MLS) $35,000 MLSSAZ
• 2013-06-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2012-10-25 Listed $39,500 MLSSAZ
• 2011-07-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2011-03-21 Listed $44,900 MLSSAZ
• 2011-03-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2010-09-01 Listed $44,900 MLSSAZ
• 2006-04-26 Sold (MLS) $80,000 MLSSAZ
• 2006-02-10 Listed $82,000 MLSSAZ