302 S Paseo Aguila Unit B · Green Valley, AZ 85614

$87,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 588 sqft · Condo · 43 Days on market

Built 1964 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This white-arch Villa is move in ready with fresh paint, updated bathroom, 2 yr old a/c, brand new range/oven. Complete with laundry room with washer and dryer. Washer and dryer sold as-is. This Villa is short distance to the neighborhood park and pool, Green Valley Rec. Centers and shopping at the Green Valley Village, Great for year round or seasonal living.

Key facts

• Updated bathroom
• Garage
• Built 1964

Tags

• BRAND NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• ATTACHED LAUNDRY STORAGE ROOM
• SHORT DISTANCE TO POOLS
• SHORT DISTANCE TO SHOPPING
• NEW QUARTZ KITCHEN CT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $88k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 411 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $605 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.6% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $88k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,875 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.43%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-634
• Equity at exit: $13,047

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $28,623
• Equity at exit: $7,565

Cash invested: $24,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85614

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 411
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,364 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$459
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$109 /mo · $1,312/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA est. from 3 same-building comps: −$321
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,172

Max offer price $87,500

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,875
• Closing costs: $2,625
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
262 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	23d	1	0.08mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	1d	1	0.08mi
303 S Paseo Lobo Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,000	$1.44	23d	1	0.10mi
90 W Camino Manzana Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	23d	1	0.13mi
321 S Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,250	$1.80	23d	1	0.13mi
466 S Paseo Madera Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$2,300	$3.30	16d	1	0.24mi
466 Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,100	$1.58	16d	1	0.24mi
478 Paseo Madera Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,250	$2.13	23d	1	0.26mi
133 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,095	$1.86	1d	1	0.34mi
430 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,025	$1.47	14d	1	0.36mi
132 S Paseo Sarta Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	1d	1	0.47mi
174 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,100	$1.87	1d	1	0.51mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $87,500 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $87,500 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $87,500 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $87,500 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $87,500 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $87,500 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $87,500 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $87,500 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $87,500 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $87,500 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $87,500 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $87,500 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $87,500 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    listed $87,500 Active
15. 2026-03-08
    historical
16. 2026-01-23
    listed $1 Active
17. 2014-08-04
    soldstatus $35,000 Closed 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    This white-arch Villa is move in ready with fresh paint, updated bathroom, 2 yr old a/c, brand new range/oven. Complete with laundry room with washer and dryer. Washer and dryer sold as-is. This Villa is short distance to the neighborhood park and pool, Green Valley Rec. Centers and shopping at the Green Valley Village, Great for year round or seasonal living.

18. 2013-06-01
    historical
19. 2012-10-25
    listed $39,500
20. 2011-07-01
    historical
21. 2011-03-21
    listed $44,900
22. 2011-03-01
    historical
23. 2010-09-01
    listed $44,900
24. 2006-04-26
    soldstatus $80,000
25. 2006-02-10
    listed $82,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,366
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,901
• − Property taxes: −$1,312
• − Insurance: −$438
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,309
• − Management: −$1,309
• − HOA: −$3,852
• − Depreciation: −$2,545
• Taxable income: $699
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$168
• After-tax cash flow: $1,653/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready, well-maintained condo features updated bathrooms, new flooring, and fresh paint, making it an attractive investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale new quartz countertops — enhances kitchen appeal
• Both new flooring — improves both resale and rental value
• Both new paint — refreshes interior and exterior
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale new quartz countertops — enhances kitchen appeal ↑
• Both new flooring — improves both resale and rental value ↑
• Both new paint — refreshes interior and exterior ↑
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 25,381
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,381
• Household income: $64,879
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 860.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.05%
• Current HPI: 250.5933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+6.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $87,500 Fizber.com
• 2026-03-08 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-23 Listed $1 MLSSAZ
• 2014-08-04 Sold (MLS) $35,000 MLSSAZ
• 2013-06-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2012-10-25 Listed $39,500 MLSSAZ
• 2011-07-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2011-03-21 Listed $44,900 MLSSAZ
• 2011-03-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2010-09-01 Listed $44,900 MLSSAZ
• 2006-04-26 Sold (MLS) $80,000 MLSSAZ
• 2006-02-10 Listed $82,000 MLSSAZ