4439 Ashland Dr · Macon-Bibb County, GA 31206

$82,200

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Other · 25 Days on market

Built 1962 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 BEDROOM HOME ON LEVEL LOT WITH FENCED IN BACKYARD AND HARDWOOD FLOORING. NO SELLER DISCLOSURES. SOLD AS IS.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Fenced in backyard
• 0.25 acre lot

Tags

• FENCED IN BACKYARD
• HARDWOOD FLOORING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 110-volt electric; Cable available; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Phone available; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: One level (single-story); Fixer condition
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: City street frontage; Asphalt road access; Listed within GROVELAND PARK (legal description)

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen features listed
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Bedrooms with no special features listed
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; Master bathroom has no special features listed
• Heating & cooling: Heating: Other; Cooling: Other
• Interior features: Other interior features; No shared/common walls; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $82k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $382 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 5.4% in Macon-Bibb County — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Southfield Elementary School (math 5% / reading 6%, grade F, #1,158 of 1,228 statewide, top 94%, 737 students, 100% FRL); Ballard Hudson Middle School (math 4% / reading 9%, grade F, #457 of 470 statewide, top 98%, 744 students, 100% FRL); Southwest High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #365 of 424 statewide, top 88%, 800 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 75% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 207 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,202/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($30k/yr) (locally 1335% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $568 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $82k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,967 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.90%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $13,507
• Equity at exit: $12,256

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $53,845
• Equity at exit: $7,107

Cash invested: $23,016 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31206

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,202 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$431
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$103 /mo · $1,233/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $719

Max offer price $82,200

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,550
• Closing costs: $2,466
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4386 Thrasher Cir Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,400	$1.25	43d	1	0.06mi
4331 Ashland Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	864	$1,025	$1.19	43d	1	0.19mi
2477 Thrasher Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	960	$825	$0.86	13d	1	0.26mi
2641 Leone Dr N Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	864	$1,100	$1.27	43d	1	0.28mi
5771 Satterfield Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	888	$1,250	$1.41	43d	1	0.29mi
2665 Chatsworth Ct Macon, GA	3.0	1.5	1056	$1,175	$1.11	43d	1	0.32mi
2423 Thrasher Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1056	$725	$0.69	43d	1	0.36mi
2459 Vivian Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	792	$850	$1.07	13d	1	0.40mi
4278 Vinson Ave Macon, GA	4.0	2.0	1104	$1,550	$1.40	20d	1	0.43mi
2427 Vivian Dr Macon, GA	4.0	1.0	1056	$1,150	$1.09	43d	1	0.45mi
5711 Sterling Pl Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	20d	1	0.49mi
5708 Edwina Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	925	$1,275	$1.38	43d	1	0.51mi
5487 Bloomfield Rd Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	20d	1	0.63mi
2961 Deeb Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	43d	1	0.74mi
4069 Blair Ct Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	864	$850	$0.98	43d	1	1.24mi
5161 Nisbet Dr Macon, GA	2.0	1.5	1040	$975	$0.94	43d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $82,200 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $82,200 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $82,200 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $82,200 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $82,200 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $82,200 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $82,200 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $82,200 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $82,200 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $82,200 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $82,200 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $82,200 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $82,200 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $82,200 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,200 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $82,200 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    listed $82,200 Active
18. 2005-08-02
    soldstatus $53,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,604
• − Property taxes: −$1,233
• − Insurance: −$411
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,154
• − Management: −$1,154
• − Depreciation: −$2,391
• Taxable income: $3,477
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$835
• After-tax cash flow: $3,745/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bibb County
• NCES district ID: 1300420
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,426
• Composite: 12.13/100
• National rank: #9654
• State rank: #161 of 174 in GA

Livability — Macon-Bibb County

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• County: Bibb County · 164,332 people
• City population: 143,186
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• Population (ZIP): 24,310
• Household income: $30,042
• Rent vs Own: 56.5% rent · 43.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1335.0

Population outlook (Bibb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 148,772 people
• By 2030: 145,904 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 139,404 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 131,603 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 111,050 · -25.4%
• By 2100: 83,346 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 76% White 12% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Bibb

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.4) · D 61.0% · R 38.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.4pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.4 2020: D+23.8 2016: D+20.2 2012: D+20.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.17%
• Current HPI: 148.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.03%
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+55.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $82,200 FMLS
• 2005-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $61 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.