2010 Cotton Bluff Ln · Crosby, TX 77532

$289,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,147 sqft · SingleFamily · 93 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,372 sqft lot 2-car garage $92/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the elegance of the Avery, a sprawling ranch-style home on a quiet street. This sophisticated one-story layout features a chic, open-concept kitchen that flows seamlessly into a spacious great room, ideal for entertaining. A large Studio provide space for work or creative ventures, while the airy covered patio extends your living space outdoors for al fresco relaxation. With four bedrooms and three baths, there is ample room for family and guests. This home showcases the AW Collection® Milan, featuring sleek gray cabinetry, smooth ceramics, and European-inspired design touches. The primary suite serves as a peaceful retreat with a deluxe bath upgrade. . Residents enjoy premium community amenities, including a lake with miles of trails, a pool, and parks. Located with quick freeway access, you are minutes from local schools, shopping, and dining.

Key facts

• 6,372 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

🏗️ New construction. The $289,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $369,078.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-877 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 4.8% in Crosby — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1446 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $76k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,442 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.19%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $369,078
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: -21.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15911 Switchgrass Ct	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,147 (0%)	1mo	$400,764	$187	96
15907 Switchgrass Ct	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,316 (+8%)	1mo	$396,941	$171	81
15727 Lone Juniper Dr	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,260 (+5%)	2mo	$239,990	$106	77
2019 Indigo Ridge Dr	0.11mi	4/3.0	1,861 (-13%)	0mo	$299,990	$161	73
2518 Shady Walnut Dr	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,260 (+5%)	1mo	$309,290	$137	70
15906 Mimosa Harvest Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0	1,912 (-11%)	1mo	$229,990	$120	67
2506 Evergreen Falls Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0	1,912 (-11%)	2mo	$290,790	$152	67
2454 Spring Rise Ln	0.34mi	4/3.0	1,912 (-11%)	0mo	$291,790	$153	66
15826 Tall Barberry Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,910 (-11%)	1mo	$269,990	$141	64
2600 Euell Rd	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,184 (+2%)	1mo	$687,500	$315	59
2510 Evergreen Falls Dr	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-15%)	0mo	$282,790	$155	54
15922 Mimosa Harvest Dr	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-15%)	1mo	$283,540	$155	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-118,966
• Equity at exit: $55,031

10-year hold

• IRR: -62.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.82×
• Total profit: $-188,584
• Equity at exit: $31,911

Cash invested: $103,342 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 26 active · 24 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.6 mo (28%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $346,240 ($153/sqft)
• Median days on market: 568 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1446
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,234 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$461 /mo · $5,536/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-877

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,345

Max offer price $242,113

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-622	-5% $-750	+0% $-877	+5% $-1,005	+10% $-1,132
Rent	-10% $-1,054	-5% $-966	+0% $-877	+5% $-789	+10% $-701
Rate	-1.0pp $-692	-0.5pp $-784	base $-877	+0.5pp $-973	+1.0pp $-1,070

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,270
• Closing costs: $11,072
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $1,100 (association name TBD)Curbs in community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Built by Ashton WoodsBrick and stone constructionYear built 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patioPatioDeckPrivate yardBack yard fenceSubdivision settingConcrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherFree-standing rangeGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveOvenDisposal
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: CarpetPlankTileVinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (gas)Thermostat (energy efficient)
• Interior features: High ceilingsQuartz countersCeiling fansProgrammable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

HOA detail $92/mo · $1,104/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $289,990 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $289,990 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $289,990 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $289,990 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $289,990 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $289,990 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $289,990 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $289,990 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   pricedays on market $289,990 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $299,990 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $299,990 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $299,990 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $299,990 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $299,990 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $299,990 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $299,990 Active 72 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $299,990 Active 71 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $299,990 Active 70 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $299,990 Active 69 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $299,990 Active 68 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $299,990 Active 67 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $299,990 Active 66 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $299,990 Active 65 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $299,990 Active 64 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $299,990 Active 63 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $299,990 Active 61 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    pricedays on market $299,990 Active 60 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $309,990 Active 59 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $309,990 Active 58 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $309,990 Active 57 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $309,990 Active 56 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $309,990 Active 55 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $309,990 Active 54 DOM
34. 2026-06-30
    price $309,990 Active 53 DOM
35. 2026-06-29
    days on market $319,990 Active 53 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $319,990 Active 52 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $319,990 Active 51 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    pricedays on market $319,990 Active 48 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $349,990 Active 46 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $349,990 Active 45 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $349,990 Active 42 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $349,990 Active 41 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $349,990 Active 40 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $349,990 Active 39 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $349,990 Active 37 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $349,990 Active 33 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $349,990 Active 32 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,990 Active 31 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $349,990 Active 28 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,990 Active 27 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,813
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,674
• − Property taxes: −$5,536
• − Insurance: −$1,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,145
• − Management: −$2,145
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$10,737
• Taxable loss: −$17,374
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,170
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,359/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,735–$32,205 screening

This well-maintained, one-story ranch-style home with modern finishes and upgrades is ready for immediate occupancy and can be enhanced with minor cosmetic improvements to further boost its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom upgrades — Upgraded fixtures and finishes enhance the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Crosby Kindergarten Center Middle Crosby Middle F TX #786/1,662 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Highpoint School East (Crosby)

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 33,780
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $1,100 (association name TBD)Curbs in community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Built by Ashton WoodsBrick and stone constructionYear built 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patioPatioDeckPrivate yardBack yard fenceSubdivision settingConcrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherFree-standing rangeGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveOvenDisposal
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: CarpetPlankTileVinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (gas)Thermostat (energy efficient)
• Interior features: High ceilingsQuartz countersCeiling fansProgrammable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $349,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $349,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $366,321 Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Listed $366,321 HARMLS