38 Corey Trl · Ridge, NY 11961

$575,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,074 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1985 7,405 sqft lot $535/sqft · 10% above area Est $524k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• ARV discount +3.1/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming home overlooking Corey Pond in Lake Panamoka with beautiful winter water views. Featuring fresh paint and new flooring this home also offers a house generator in 2021, new 200 amp electrical panel installed in 2019, oil burner in 2016, oil tank in 2021, and newer roof and siding. Join the Lake Association for $225 and have access to three lake beaches and waterfront activities., Additional information: Appearance:Diamond

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1985

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage with 1 garage space
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Electricity connected; Public trash collection; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront; Sprinklers in front and rear; Near schools and shops

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven / Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7 (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Primary bedroom on main level; Finished full basement; Attic (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $575k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $887 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $575k).
• Recommended offer: $558k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.0% in Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#932 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Longwood Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #235 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ridge Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 719 students, 44% FRL); Longwood Junior High School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade A-, #101 of 729 statewide, top 15%, 1,388 students, 48% FRL); Longwood High School (math 90% / reading 77%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,977 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($558k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $450k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $557,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.61%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $523,945
• List price: $575,000
• Delta: 9.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
65 Corchaug Trl	0.02mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,096 (+2%)	15mo	$420,000	$383	76
79 Panamoka Trl	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,053 (-2%)	12mo	$365,000	$347	76
5 Sunset Trl	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+2%)	11mo	$502,000	$456	72
73 Montauk Trl	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,138 (+6%)	6mo	$589,000	$518	68
50 Corchaug Trl	0.05mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-7%)	12mo	$397,000	$397	67
180 Lakeside Trl	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-3%)	0mo	$487,500	$469	60
129 Panamoka Trl	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,226 (+14%)	20mo	$475,000	$387	48
9 Forest Trl	0.41mi	2/1.5 (-1)	967 (-10%)	15mo	$470,000	$486	45
20 Lakeview Trl	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,152 (+7%)	17mo	$559,000	$485	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-36,536
• Equity at exit: $85,734

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $41,604
• Equity at exit: $49,715

Cash invested: $161,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11961

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,318 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax from tax record: −$850 /mo · $10,195/yr
• Insurance: −$240
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,327
• Net cashflow: $887

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,196

Max offer price $575,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $143,750
• Closing costs: $17,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27 Panamoka Trl Ridge, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$3,600	$2.77	19d	1	0.41mi
187 Lakeside Trl Unit 1429738P Ridge, NY	3.0	2.5	861	$10,813	$12.56	43d	1	0.65mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $575,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $575,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $575,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $575,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $575,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $575,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $575,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $575,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $575,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $575,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $575,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $575,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $575,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $575,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $599,000 Active 1080-char remark
16. 2026-04-28
    historical $599,000 1080-char remark
17. 2023-10-05
    soldstatus $450,000
18. 2023-09-06
    soldstatus $450,000 Closed 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    Charming home overlooking Corey Pond in Lake Panamoka with beautiful winter water views. Featuring fresh paint and new flooring this home also offers a house generator in 2021, new 200 amp electrical panel installed in 2019, oil burner in 2016, oil tank in 2021, and newer roof and siding. Join the Lake Association for $225 and have access to three lake beaches and waterfront activities., Additional information: Appearance:Diamond

19. 2023-07-21
    status Pending 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    Charming home overlooking Corey Pond in Lake Panamoka with beautiful winter water views. Featuring fresh paint and new flooring this home also offers a house generator in 2021, new 200 amp electrical panel installed in 2019, oil burner in 2016, oil tank in 2021, and newer roof and siding. Join the Lake Association for $225 and have access to three lake beaches and waterfront activities., Additional information: Appearance:Diamond

20. 2023-06-28
    listed $399,000 Active 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    Charming home overlooking Corey Pond in Lake Panamoka with beautiful winter water views. Featuring fresh paint and new flooring this home also offers a house generator in 2021, new 200 amp electrical panel installed in 2019, oil burner in 2016, oil tank in 2021, and newer roof and siding. Join the Lake Association for $225 and have access to three lake beaches and waterfront activities., Additional information: Appearance:Diamond

21. 1990-01-08
    soldstatus $124,000
22. 1986-12-30
    soldstatus $18,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,195 · $850/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,195 · $850/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $75,814
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,209
• − Property taxes: −$10,195
• − Insurance: −$2,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,065
• − Management: −$6,065
• − Depreciation: −$16,727
• Taxable income: $1,677
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$402
• After-tax cash flow: $10,236/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Longwood Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619230
• Math proficiency: 61% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $72,748
• Composite: 51.63/100
• National rank: #1703
• State rank: #235 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ridge

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #932
• US rank: #18125

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ridge, NY
• City population: 12,436
• Population (ZIP): 12,436

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 4% Two or more races 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.86%
• Current HPI: 383.4444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2966.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $575,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $599,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Coming Soon $599,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $450,000 Public Records
• 2023-09-06 Sold (MLS) $450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-21 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-28 Listed $399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1990-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $124,000 Public Records
• 1986-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $18,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,195 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.