415 C St W · Poplar, MT 59255

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 288 Days on market

Built 1963 ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.3/10.0

Key facts

• Built 1963
• Listed 287 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $47 ($564/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#123 in MT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Poplar H S (town): math 0% / reading 0% proficiency, ranked #320 of 339 in MT (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Roosevelt County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 288 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,574 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 288 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.22%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $22,789
• Equity at exit: $74,191

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $76,846
• Equity at exit: $114,337

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59255

• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,296 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $511/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,236

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 288 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 287 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 286 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 285 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 283 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $165,000 Active 282 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 279 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 278 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 277 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 275 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 273 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 272 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 271 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 270 DOM
15. 2026-02-04
    price $195,000
16. 2025-09-03
    listed $220,000 Active
17. 2006-06-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MT · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $511 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,386 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$875/yr (+$73/mo · 171.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,549
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$511
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,244
• − Management: −$1,244
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,318
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$556
• After-tax cash flow: $1,120/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poplar H S
• NCES district ID: 3021270
• Math proficiency: 0% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 0% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $26,672
• Composite: 3.17/100
• National rank: #15122
• State rank: #320 of 339 in MT

Livability — Poplar

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #12342

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poplar, MT
• Population (ZIP): 2,994

Population outlook (Roosevelt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,449 people
• By 2030: 14,496 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 16,710 · +24.2%
• By 2050: 18,950 · +40.9%
• By 2075: 24,541 · +82.5%
• By 2100: 27,573 · +105.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.98)
• Race & ethnicity: Native American 83% White 15% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Scottish 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Roosevelt

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.6) · D 42.9% · R 52.5% · Other 4.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.9pp toward R · 2008: 26.3pp · 2024: -9.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.6 2020: R+2.1 2016: R+6.3 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+26.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-11.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $195,000 HHLMLS
• 2025-09-03 Listed $220,000 HHLMLS
• 2006-06-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $511 · -44.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.