5648 Verdant Dr · Byrnes Mill, MO 63051

$110,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2002 0.25 ac lot $95/sqft · 59% below area $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this three bedroom, two bath home located on a level lot with a large shed and concrete drive. Whether you're looking to relocate your family or start a new one, this home here is worth checking out. Seller may help with some closing costs. Bring your offer. Motivated seller! Agent is owner.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 2002
• Listed 21 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,152 (source: assessor); Lot size approximately 0.25 acre
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Bear Creek Estates HOA; HOA fee $100 annually (includes maintenance of parking/roads); No association amenities listed

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (220 volts)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One story
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Adjoins wooded area; Level, private and secluded lot; Views

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: One-level living; 5 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $615 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 3.6% in Byrnes Mill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#591 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Northwest R-I (suburban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #128 of 324 in MO (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $108,350 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.97%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,769
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -58.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4057 Crest Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	2mo	$120,000	$104	90
1020 Elderberry Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+6%)	4mo	$94,500	$78	81
1114 Hackberry Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+6%)	12mo	$119,899	$99	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $21,322
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $68,891
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63051

• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,628 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $484/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $615

Break-even live

Break-even rent $849

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $110,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $110,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-16
    status Pending 824-char remark
14. 2026-05-15
    listed $110,000 Active 824-char remark
15. 2026-05-13
    historical $110,000 824-char remark
16. 2017-08-02
    soldstatus
17. 2017-07-28
    soldstatus Closed 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Come see this three bedroom, two bath home located on a level lot with a large shed and concrete drive. Whether you're looking to relocate your family or start a new one, this home here is worth checking out. Seller may help with some closing costs. Bring your offer. Motivated seller! Agent is owner.

18. 2017-06-13
    status Pending 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Come see this three bedroom, two bath home located on a level lot with a large shed and concrete drive. Whether you're looking to relocate your family or start a new one, this home here is worth checking out. Seller may help with some closing costs. Bring your offer. Motivated seller! Agent is owner.

19. 2017-06-01
    status Active 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Come see this three bedroom, two bath home located on a level lot with a large shed and concrete drive. Whether you're looking to relocate your family or start a new one, this home here is worth checking out. Seller may help with some closing costs. Bring your offer. Motivated seller! Agent is owner.

20. 2017-05-18
    historical Contingent (No Kickout) 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Come see this three bedroom, two bath home located on a level lot with a large shed and concrete drive. Whether you're looking to relocate your family or start a new one, this home here is worth checking out. Seller may help with some closing costs. Bring your offer. Motivated seller! Agent is owner.

21. 2017-04-20
    price $52,500 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Come see this three bedroom, two bath home located on a level lot with a large shed and concrete drive. Whether you're looking to relocate your family or start a new one, this home here is worth checking out. Seller may help with some closing costs. Bring your offer. Motivated seller! Agent is owner.

22. 2017-03-07
    listed $55,000 Active 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Come see this three bedroom, two bath home located on a level lot with a large shed and concrete drive. Whether you're looking to relocate your family or start a new one, this home here is worth checking out. Seller may help with some closing costs. Bring your offer. Motivated seller! Agent is owner.

23. 2005-05-20
    soldstatus
24. 2002-08-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $484 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,067 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$583/yr (+$49/mo · 120.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,537
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$484
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,563
• − Management: −$1,563
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $5,919
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,421
• After-tax cash flow: $5,961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest R-I
• NCES district ID: 2922890
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,998
• Composite: 35.05/100
• National rank: #5034
• State rank: #128 of 324 in MO

Livability — Byrnes Mill

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #591
• US rank: #20943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,589

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,088 people
• By 2030: 238,365 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 240,156 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 234,651 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 214,569 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 179,697 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.7) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -36.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.7 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+12.7 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -189.81%
• Current HPI: 209.5904
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-16 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $110,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-07-28 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-13 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-01 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-18 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-20 Price Changed $52,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-07 Listed $55,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-08-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $484 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.