1225 W 10th Ave #18 · Junction City, OR 97448

$62,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1978 1,440 sqft lot $43/sqft · 38% below area Est $100k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this 3 bed, 2 bath manufactured home in the highly sought-after 55+ community of Scandia Village! Offering 1,440 sq ft of comfortable living space, this 1978 manufactured home features a bright sunroom, a cozy pellet stove in the family room, and an efficient heat pump for year-round comfort. The home also includes a brand new roof, a pellet stove as well as handicap-accessible ramp installed just 4 years ago. Enjoy a beautifully kept park setting with a true sense of community—this is easy living at its best!

Key facts

• Heat pump
• Park setting
• Sunroom

Tags

• SUNROOM
• PELLET STOVE
• HEAT PUMP
• NEW ROOF
• HANDICAP-ACCESSIBLE RAMP
• PARK SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $62k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $803 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $62k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.8% vs local median 2.7% in Junction City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#46 in OR, #1,184 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D.
• Junction City SD 69 (town): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #27 of 58 in OR (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $429 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $62k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $58,280 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.48%
• DSCR: 3.47
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $100,222
• List price: $62,000
• Delta: -38.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1225 W 10th Ave #49	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	2mo	$65,000	$42	87
1225 W 10th Ave #53	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+7%)	4mo	$80,000	$52	80
310 Pitney Ln #40	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+4%)	4mo	$130,000	$87	69
1225 W 10th Ave #44	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	24mo	$75,000	$56	64
310 Pitney Ln #52	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+5%)	10mo	$184,500	$122	58
310 Pitney Ln #62	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+5%)	21mo	$185,000	$122	49
310 Pitney Ln #84	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,553 (+8%)	14mo	$215,000	$138	48
310 Pitney Ln #1	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	11mo	$123,500	$99	48
310 Pitney Ln #13	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,521 (+6%)	23mo	$203,500	$134	46
310 Pitney Ln	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+5%)	22mo	$173,900	$115	44
310 Pitney Ln #70	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+5%)	22mo	$173,900	$115	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $41,089
• Equity at exit: $9,244

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.86×
• Total profit: $101,669
• Equity at exit: $5,361

Cash invested: $17,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97448

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,543 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$325
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $781/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $803

Break-even live

Break-even rent $527

Max offer price $62,000

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,500
• Closing costs: $1,860
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
165 SW Kalmia St Ste 3 Junction City, OR	2.0	1.0	886	$1,295	$1.46	13d	1	0.49mi
165 SW Kalmia St Unit 4 Junction City, OR	2.0	1.0	886	$1,295	$1.46	43d	1	0.49mi
2254 W 10th Ave Unit 414-115 Junction City, OR	2.0	2.0	968	$1,599	$1.65	43d	1	0.59mi
2280 W 10th Ave Unit 414-259 Junction City, OR	2.0	2.0	968	$1,565	$1.62	13d	1	0.61mi
2272 W 10th Ave Junction City, OR	2.0	2.0	990	$1,575	$1.59	13d	1	0.68mi
29426 Dane Ln Junction City, OR	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,100	$1.59	43d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $62,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $62,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $62,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $62,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    statusdays on market $65,000 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-04-13
    listed $65,000 Active 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    Welcome to this 3 bed, 2 bath manufactured home in the highly sought-after 55+ community of Scandia Village! Offering 1,440 sq ft of comfortable living space, this 1978 manufactured home features a bright sunroom, a cozy pellet stove in the family room, and an efficient heat pump for year-round comfort. The home also includes a brand new roof, a pellet stove as well as handicap-accessible ramp installed just 4 years ago. Enjoy a beautifully kept park setting with a true sense of community—this is easy living at its best!

18. 2024-12-21
    historical
19. 2024-11-27
    historical Active under Contract
20. 2024-10-25
    listed $65,000 Active
21. 2017-01-20
    soldstatus $31,000 Sold
22. 2017-01-06
    status Pending
23. 2016-12-23
    status Active
24. 2016-12-23
    price $31,900
25. 2016-11-30
    status Pending
26. 2016-10-30
    listed $35,000 Active
27. 2003-10-20
    soldstatus $32,000
28. 2003-09-11
    historical
29. 2003-03-17
    listed $38,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $781 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $781 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,473
• − Property taxes: −$781
• − Insurance: −$310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,481
• − Management: −$1,481
• − Depreciation: −$1,804
• Taxable income: $9,182
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,204
• After-tax cash flow: $7,428/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Junction City SD 69
• NCES district ID: 4106930
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $50,018
• Composite: 29.05/100
• National rank: #6608
• State rank: #27 of 58 in OR

Livability — Junction City

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #46
• US rank: #1184

Category grades

Amenities B Commute B Cost of living B+ Crime C Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Junction City, OR
• Population (ZIP): 14,629

Population outlook (Lane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 391,933 people
• By 2030: 405,860 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 429,386 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 452,016 · +15.3%
• By 2075: 508,825 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 531,208 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Lane

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.1) · D 60.0% · R 36.9% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.4pp · 2024: 23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.1 2020: D+24.3 2016: D+18.9 2012: D+23.4 2008: D+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.05%
• Current HPI: 281.1105
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+71.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $65,000 RMLS
• 2024-12-21 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2024-11-27 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2024-10-25 Listed $65,000 WVMLS
• 2017-01-20 Sold (MLS) $31,000 RMLS
• 2017-01-06 Pending — RMLS
• 2016-12-23 Relisted — RMLS
• 2016-12-23 Price Changed $31,900 RMLS
• 2016-11-30 Pending — RMLS
• 2016-10-30 Listed $35,000 RMLS
• 2003-10-20 Sold (MLS) $32,000 RMLS
• 2003-09-11 Delisted — RMLS
• 2003-03-17 Listed $38,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $781 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.