Hayden Plan · Palm Bay, FL 32909

$410,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,601 sqft · SingleFamily · 491 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Key facts

• En suite bathroom
• Flex room
• Granite countertops

Tags

• FLEX ROOM
• CENTER ISLAND
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• EN SUITE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $410,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan (Hayden); Active listing
• Construction: New construction inventory: Plan
• Exterior features: Living area of 2601

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan model: Hayden

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $411k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-674 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (23.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (33.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $44k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $41k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$71k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 491 days — a 12% lower offer ($362k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $274,241 (33.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 491 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.03%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $182,827
• Equity at exit: $370,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.01×
• Total profit: $576,103
• Equity at exit: $798,463

Cash invested: $115,077 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32909

• Home prices YoY: 6.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,742 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,155
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$514 /mo · $6,165/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $-674

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,595

Max offer price $313,496

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,748
• Closing costs: $12,330
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
647 Airoso Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	3.0	2365	$2,900	$1.23	13d	1	0.34mi
1129 Colonial Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	3.0	2008	$2,500	$1.25	18d	1	0.40mi
1224 Buffing Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2233	$2,395	$1.07	14d	1	0.63mi
907 Algardi St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1943	$2,330	$1.20	23d	1	0.90mi
1210 Vandalia Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,050	$1.12	14d	1	0.97mi
1517 Wacker Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1775	$2,200	$1.24	23d	1	1.01mi
1150 Raoul St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,300	$1.29	23d	1	1.10mi
309 Cactus St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,195	$1.19	14d	1	1.32mi
490 Hatcher St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,150	$1.17	21d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $410,990 Active 491 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $410,990 Active 490 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $410,990 Active 489 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $410,990 Active 488 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $410,990 Active 486 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $410,990 Active 483 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $410,990 Active 481 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $410,990 Active 480 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $410,990 Active 477 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $410,990 Active 476 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $410,990 Active 475 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $410,990 Active 474 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $410,990 Active 473 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,909
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,022
• − Property taxes: −$6,165
• − Insurance: −$2,055
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,633
• − Management: −$2,633
• − Depreciation: −$11,956
• Taxable loss: −$15,554
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,733
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Bay, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 132,211
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,804
• Household income: $79,977
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 697.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 16% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.81%
• Current HPI: 330.8595
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B