10100 Pioneer Trl #76 · Truckee, CA 96161

$410,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,563 sqft · Land public records · 57 Days on market

Built 2000 $262/sqft · 39% above area Est $296k · 39% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 1,563-square-foot home features a thoughtfully designed layout with three bedrooms, two full baths, living room, and a spacious family room, offering plenty of space for both family and guests. Located in the highly sought-after Coachland community, the property is highlighted by a large, fenced yard that has been beautifully maintained and is perfect for privacy, pets, or play.

Key facts

• Large fenced yard
• Built 2000
• Listed 56 days

Tags

• THOUGHTFULLY DESIGNED LAYOUT
• LARGE FENCED YARD
• BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $410k).
• Recommended offer: $398k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 2.0% in Truckee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#697 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Tahoe-Truckee Unified (town): math 44% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #136 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 375 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,625/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($132k/yr) (locally 559% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $115k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($398k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $156k; list at $410k implies a 164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $397,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.83%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,563
• List price: $410,000
• Delta: 38.72%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $57,266
• Equity at exit: $61,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $275,293
• Equity at exit: $35,449

Cash invested: $114,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96161

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,625 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$512 /mo · $6,150/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,181
• Net cashflow: $1,610

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,587

Max offer price $410,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,500
• Closing costs: $12,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10175 Annies Loop Truckee, CA	3.0	3.5	2194	$7,500	$3.42	43d	1	0.51mi
10085 Nicolas Dr Unit A Truckee, CA	3.0	2.5	1871	$5,500	$2.94	43d	1	0.83mi
10192 Schaffer Dr Truckee, CA	3.0	2.5	1532	$4,495	$2.93	43d	1	0.99mi
11319 Brockway Rd Truckee, CA	3.0	2.5	1800	$4,200	$2.33	43d	1	1.39mi
10283 White Fir Rd Unit 1251993P Truckee, CA	3.0	2.0	1894	$5,879	$3.10	13d	1	1.44mi
11357 Brockway Rd Truckee, CA	3.0	2.5	1925	$4,500	$2.34	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $410,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $410,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $410,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $410,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $410,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $410,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $410,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $410,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $410,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $410,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $410,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $410,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $410,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $410,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $410,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    listed $410,000 Active 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    This 1,563-square-foot home features a thoughtfully designed layout with three bedrooms, two full baths, living room, and a spacious family room, offering plenty of space for both family and guests. Located in the highly sought-after Coachland community, the property is highlighted by a large, fenced yard that has been beautifully maintained and is perfect for privacy, pets, or play.

17. 2019-02-08
    soldstatus $155,500 Sold 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    MOVE IN READHY!! Elegant, welcoming, immaculate larger home on one of Coachland's largest lots with peaceful garden setting. 3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths plus huge family room with sliding doors to large covered deck. Master en suite in rear of home behind Living room. Guest bedrooms & large family room in front of home. Light open kitchen-dining area, nice place to come together. Lowest priced per sq fg for perfect home! Space rent will be $775/mo, sewer/water $104/mo. propane & electric metered.

18. 2018-12-13
    historical Contingent 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    MOVE IN READHY!! Elegant, welcoming, immaculate larger home on one of Coachland's largest lots with peaceful garden setting. 3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths plus huge family room with sliding doors to large covered deck. Master en suite in rear of home behind Living room. Guest bedrooms & large family room in front of home. Light open kitchen-dining area, nice place to come together. Lowest priced per sq fg for perfect home! Space rent will be $775/mo, sewer/water $104/mo. propane & electric metered.

19. 2018-10-24
    price $162,900 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    MOVE IN READHY!! Elegant, welcoming, immaculate larger home on one of Coachland's largest lots with peaceful garden setting. 3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths plus huge family room with sliding doors to large covered deck. Master en suite in rear of home behind Living room. Guest bedrooms & large family room in front of home. Light open kitchen-dining area, nice place to come together. Lowest priced per sq fg for perfect home! Space rent will be $775/mo, sewer/water $104/mo. propane & electric metered.

20. 2018-10-11
    price $170,000 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    MOVE IN READHY!! Elegant, welcoming, immaculate larger home on one of Coachland's largest lots with peaceful garden setting. 3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths plus huge family room with sliding doors to large covered deck. Master en suite in rear of home behind Living room. Guest bedrooms & large family room in front of home. Light open kitchen-dining area, nice place to come together. Lowest priced per sq fg for perfect home! Space rent will be $775/mo, sewer/water $104/mo. propane & electric metered.

21. 2018-09-26
    listed $179,900 Active 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    MOVE IN READHY!! Elegant, welcoming, immaculate larger home on one of Coachland's largest lots with peaceful garden setting. 3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths plus huge family room with sliding doors to large covered deck. Master en suite in rear of home behind Living room. Guest bedrooms & large family room in front of home. Light open kitchen-dining area, nice place to come together. Lowest priced per sq fg for perfect home! Space rent will be $775/mo, sewer/water $104/mo. propane & electric metered.

22. 2005-10-27
    soldstatus $138,000
23. 2005-09-26
    historical
24. 2005-09-16
    listed $139,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥87°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $67,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,966
• − Property taxes: −$6,150
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,400
• − Management: −$5,400
• − Depreciation: −$11,927
• Taxable income: $13,607
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,266
• After-tax cash flow: $16,059/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tahoe-Truckee Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638770
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,136
• Composite: 44.38/100
• National rank: #2816
• State rank: #136 of 517 in CA

Livability — Truckee

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #697
• US rank: #21110

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Truckee, CA
• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• City population: 19,634
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 19,634
• Household income: $131,702
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 559.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.87%
• Current HPI: 336.9632
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+193.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $410,000 TSMLS
• 2019-02-08 Sold (MLS) $155,500 TSMLS
• 2018-12-13 Contingent — TSMLS
• 2018-10-24 Price Changed $162,900 TSMLS
• 2018-10-11 Price Changed $170,000 TSMLS
• 2018-09-26 Listed $179,900 TSMLS
• 2005-10-27 Sold (MLS) $138,000 TSMLS
• 2005-09-26 Delisted — TSMLS
• 2005-09-16 Listed $139,900 TSMLS