161 John Vanzandt Dr · Pennington, NJ 08560

$479,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,129 sqft · Townhouse

Built 2026 Poor condition $225/sqft · 39% below area Est $483k · at est. $225/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step inside the stunning 3-story Collins townhome nestled in the sought-after Hopewell Parc community, where thoughtful design meets everyday functionality. Light pours through every level of this generously sized home, anchored by an open main floor where the living room, dining space, and kitchen flow effortlessly into one another. The kitchen includes clean cabinetry, quality finishes, generous counter space, and an oversized center island — the natural hub for entertaining or casual family meals. The upper level is home to a serene primary suite complete with a walk-in closet and en-suite bath, while additional bedrooms adapt easily to your needs — whether that's a guest roo

Key facts

• $225 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $480k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $434k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $434k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.2% in Pennington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#84 in NJ, #2,077 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Hopewell Valley Regional School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #72 of 472 in NJ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 2% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hopewell Valley Central High School (math 44% / reading 71%, grade C, #67 of 399 statewide, top 17%, 1,079 students, 5% FRL) — zoned schools at 5% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $433,534 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.88%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $482,888
• List price: $479,990
• Delta: 2.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
228 Cora Bergen Blvd	0.03mi	3/2.5	2,145 (+1%)	2mo	$589,990	$275	96
139 John Vanzandt Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	2,129 (0%)	5mo	$648,340	$305	94
123 John Vanzandt Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	2,129 (0%)	5mo	$610,000	$287	94
121 John Vanzandt Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	2,129 (0%)	5mo	$658,740	$309	93
129 John Vanzandt Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	2,129 (0%)	6mo	$619,000	$291	93
115 Lois Seruby Dr	0.25mi	3/3.5	2,382 (+12%)	2mo	$712,000	$299	63
121 Lois Seruby Dr	0.24mi	3/3.5	2,382 (+12%)	3mo	$724,840	$304	63
517 John Vanzandt Dr	0.29mi	3/3.5	2,382 (+12%)	1mo	$721,930	$303	62
519 John Vanzandt Dr	0.29mi	3/3.5	2,382 (+12%)	2mo	$724,990	$304	61
111 Lois Seruby Dr	0.26mi	3/3.5	2,382 (+12%)	4mo	$726,000	$305	61
101 Lois Seruby Dr	0.28mi	3/3.5	2,382 (+12%)	3mo	$724,840	$304	60
107 Lois Seruby Dr	0.27mi	3/3.5	2,382 (+12%)	5mo	$714,990	$300	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-57,292
• Equity at exit: $71,568

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-23,693
• Equity at exit: $41,501

Cash invested: $134,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08560

• Home prices YoY: -18.6%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,335 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,517
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,921/yr
• Insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$225
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$910
• Net cashflow: $323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,927

Max offer price $479,990

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $119,998
• Closing costs: $14,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 Ada Hightower Ave Pennington, NJ	4.0	3.5	2453	$4,900	$2.00	43d	1	1.33mi
135 Stoutsburg Blvd Hopewell Township, NJ	3.0	2.5	2129	$3,800	$1.78	43d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $225 · $2,700/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-09
   remarks 687-char remark
2. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on marketlisting id $479,990 Pending
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $479,990 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $479,990 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $492,265 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   price $492,265 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $494,665 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $494,665 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $494,665 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $494,665 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-05-15
    listed $519,915 Active 334-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,921 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,936 · $578/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,015/yr (+$418/mo · 261.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,024
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,887
• − Property taxes: −$1,921
• − Insurance: −$2,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,162
• − Management: −$4,162
• − HOA: −$2,700
• − Depreciation: −$13,963
• Taxable loss: −$4,171
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,001
• After-tax cash flow: $4,874/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This 3-story Collins townhome in Pennington, NJ, requires extensive repairs and updates to its kitchen, exterior, flooring, and interior walls, significantly impacting its current condition score. Significant value can be added through painting, updating cabinets, replacing siding, and updating windows, making it a promising investment opportunity.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen cabinets — Significant wear and tear, indicating the need for replacement or major repair.
• Major Exterior siding — Peeling and in need of repainting or replacement.
• Major Flooring — Worn and may need replacement or refinishing.
• Major Interior walls — Signs of wear and discoloration, indicating the need for painting or repairs.
• Major Windows — Old and may need replacement or caulking.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and updating the kitchen cabinets — Fresh paint and updated cabinets can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics, enhancing both resale and rental value.
• Both Replacing the exterior siding — A fresh coat of paint and new siding can greatly improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value for both resale and rental.
• Both Replacing the flooring — New flooring can make a significant difference in the home's appearance and value, improving both resale and rental potential.
• Both Painting and updating the interior walls — Fresh paint can make the interior look new and improve the home's overall appearance, enhancing both resale and rental value.
• Both Replacing the windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency, reduce heating and cooling costs, and enhance the home's curb appeal, increasing its value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Significant wear and tear, indicating the need for replacement or major repair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Peeling and in need of repainting or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Worn and may need replacement or refinishing.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls · Signs of wear and discoloration, indicating the need for painting or repairs.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · Old and may need replacement or caulking.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and updating the kitchen cabinets — Fresh paint and updated cabinets can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Replacing the exterior siding — A fresh coat of paint and new siding can greatly improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Replacing the flooring — New flooring can make a significant difference in the home's appearance and value, improving both resale and rental potential. ↑
• Both Painting and updating the interior walls — Fresh paint can make the interior look new and improve the home's overall appearance, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Replacing the windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency, reduce heating and cooling costs, and enhance the home's curb appeal, increasing its value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hopewell Valley Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3407530
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $126,131
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1636
• State rank: #72 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Pennington

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #84
• US rank: #2077

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 13,272
• Population (ZIP): 3,334

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Chinese 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.39%
• Current HPI: 246.241
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $479,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-08 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,921 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.