21522 Ferndale Ave · Matoaca, VA 23803

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,516 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1929 0.51 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

With its strong potential for customization, this property presents an outstanding investment opportunity. Adding a 2nd bathroom to this one will help to maximize ARV values. Whether your strategy is to expand your rental portfolio or renovate and resell for profit, this home offers great upside in central Virginia's active housing market. Don’t miss the opportunity to secure a property with the potential to elevate your investment portfolio.

Key facts

• 0.51 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1929

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Off-street parking; No garage; Unpaved parking surfaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Metal roof; Drywall interior; Metal siding; Vinyl siding; Slab foundation; Built as existing (actual year built recorded)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Screened porch; Porch; Unpaved driveway; Decorative fencing; Partial front-yard fencing; Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Stove
• Bedrooms: Bedroom located on the first floor
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Screens on windows; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $335 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.9% in Matoaca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#178 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 290 active listings in the ZIP; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 5.9% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $150k implies a 971% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.56%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $336,552
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21506 Stuart Ave	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,452 (-4%)	8mo	$179,000	$123	77
6615 Johnston St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,651 (+9%)	8mo	$279,500	$169	67
21605 Hill St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,586 (+5%)	22mo	$349,000	$220	62
6809 River Rd	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,330 (-12%)	1mo	$226,000	$170	59
21600 Ferndale Ave	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,308 (-14%)	15mo	$290,000	$222	59
5731 Beechnut Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,520 (+0%)	10mo	$369,900	$243	56
20903 Matoaca Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+3%)	4mo	$399,900	$255	55
6600 Johnston St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,308 (-14%)	21mo	$329,000	$252	51
5806 River Rd	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,416 (-7%)	15mo	$195,000	$138	46
4009 Moss Point Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,544 (+2%)	12mo	$318,000	$206	45
21311 West St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,317 (-13%)	7mo	$315,000	$239	41
5709 River Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,704 (+12%)	16mo	$420,000	$246	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.45% appreciation · 5.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $32,378
• Equity at exit: $54,741

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $109,482
• Equity at exit: $75,561

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23803

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.9%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,655 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,488/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $335

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,232

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $150,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 446-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $150,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,488 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,488 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,865
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,488
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,589
• − Management: −$1,589
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $1,682
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$404
• After-tax cash flow: $3,612/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Matoaca

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #178
• US rank: #5429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Matoaca, VA
• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 42,012
• Household income: $57,813
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2485.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.45%
• Current HPI: 480.5365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.89%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+971.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $150,000 CVRMLS
• 1982-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,488 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.