7125 N Lagoon Dr Unit H · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$174,900

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1 sqft · Condo public records · 205 Days on market

Built 1984

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated Seller. Price improvement just in time for spring at the beach. Welcome to this rental ready 2 bedroom, 2.5 bath low rise condo. HVAC replaced in 2023. Perfectly situated in a desirable community with access to a community pool and a well kept common area. This home is completely furnished and ready to go- an ideal turnkey opportunity for investors or those looking for a vacation retreat.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Completely furnished
• Turnkey opportunity

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• WELL KEPT COMMON AREA
• COMPLETELY FURNISHED
• TURNKEY OPPORTUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $303 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1022 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $175k implies a 230% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.44%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-9,851
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $12,906
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1022
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,859 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,104/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,475

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7125 N Lagoon Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.5	1250	$2,000	$1.60	21d	1	0.02mi
7813 N Lagoon Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,900	$1.79	21d	1	0.23mi
447 Water Oak Cir Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	21d	1	0.28mi
6427 Sunset Ave Unit 2 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,225	$1.36	21d	1	0.51mi
2103 Bent Oak Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	21d	1	0.54mi
2340 Grand Oaks Ln Unit 1523381P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1001	$4,240	$4.24	13d	1	0.55mi
7205 Thomas Dr Unit 1354970P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1044	$3,227	$3.09	21d	1	0.56mi
7405A Beach Dr Unit 1355031P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1291	$2,124	$1.65	21d	1	0.59mi
6320 Beach Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1625	$2,800	$1.72	21d	1	0.61mi
2617 Cypress St Panama City, FL	1.0	1.0	720	$1,300	$1.81	21d	1	0.73mi
2519 Beech St Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,595	$1.33	21d	1	0.76mi
5931 Pinetree Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	21d	1	0.84mi
6219 Poinciana Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1214	$2,350	$1.94	21d	1	0.88mi
8623 N Lagoon Dr Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1600	$2,350	$1.47	21d	1	0.89mi
5710 Sunset Ave Unit 1523314P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1087	$8,246	$7.59	21d	1	1.06mi
140 Treasure Palm Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,350	$1.50	21d	1	1.17mi
5409 Hilltop Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,300	$1.62	21d	1	1.29mi
5402 Pinetree Ave Unit 1447170P Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1625	$6,216	$3.83	21d	1	1.31mi
2917 Allison Ave Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,700	$1.07	21d	1	1.36mi
8730 Thomas Dr Unit 1355041P Panama City Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	839	$1,373	$1.64	21d	1	1.42mi
5230 Beach Dr Unit D Panama City, FL	1.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	21d	1	1.43mi
5230 Beach Dr Unit A Panama City, FL	1.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	21d	1	1.43mi
2526 Laurie Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	13d	1	1.47mi
4014 Irwin St Panama City, FL	1.0	1.0	697	$1,250	$1.79	21d	1	1.47mi
8715 Surf Dr Unit 1523323P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$5,377	$4.50	13d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $174,900 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 204 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 203 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 202 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 201 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,900 Active 199 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 198 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,900 Active 196 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $174,900 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $174,900 Active 190 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 189 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 188 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 187 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 186 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,900 Active 185 DOM
18. 2026-05-01
    status Active 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Motivated Seller. Price improvement just in time for spring at the beach. Welcome to this rental ready 2 bedroom, 2.5 bath low rise condo. HVAC replaced in 2023. Perfectly situated in a desirable community with access to a community pool and a well kept common area. This home is completely furnished and ready to go- an ideal turnkey opportunity for investors or those looking for a vacation retreat.

19. 2026-04-30
    historical 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Motivated Seller. Price improvement just in time for spring at the beach. Welcome to this rental ready 2 bedroom, 2.5 bath low rise condo. HVAC replaced in 2023. Perfectly situated in a desirable community with access to a community pool and a well kept common area. This home is completely furnished and ready to go- an ideal turnkey opportunity for investors or those looking for a vacation retreat.

20. 2026-03-31
    status Active 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Motivated Seller. Price improvement just in time for spring at the beach. Welcome to this rental ready 2 bedroom, 2.5 bath low rise condo. HVAC replaced in 2023. Perfectly situated in a desirable community with access to a community pool and a well kept common area. This home is completely furnished and ready to go- an ideal turnkey opportunity for investors or those looking for a vacation retreat.

21. 2026-03-31
    price $174,900 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Motivated Seller. Price improvement just in time for spring at the beach. Welcome to this rental ready 2 bedroom, 2.5 bath low rise condo. HVAC replaced in 2023. Perfectly situated in a desirable community with access to a community pool and a well kept common area. This home is completely furnished and ready to go- an ideal turnkey opportunity for investors or those looking for a vacation retreat.

22. 2026-03-17
    status Pending 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Motivated Seller. Price improvement just in time for spring at the beach. Welcome to this rental ready 2 bedroom, 2.5 bath low rise condo. HVAC replaced in 2023. Perfectly situated in a desirable community with access to a community pool and a well kept common area. This home is completely furnished and ready to go- an ideal turnkey opportunity for investors or those looking for a vacation retreat.

23. 2026-01-30
    price $179,000 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Motivated Seller. Price improvement just in time for spring at the beach. Welcome to this rental ready 2 bedroom, 2.5 bath low rise condo. HVAC replaced in 2023. Perfectly situated in a desirable community with access to a community pool and a well kept common area. This home is completely furnished and ready to go- an ideal turnkey opportunity for investors or those looking for a vacation retreat.

24. 2025-10-29
    listed $189,000 Active 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Motivated Seller. Price improvement just in time for spring at the beach. Welcome to this rental ready 2 bedroom, 2.5 bath low rise condo. HVAC replaced in 2023. Perfectly situated in a desirable community with access to a community pool and a well kept common area. This home is completely furnished and ready to go- an ideal turnkey opportunity for investors or those looking for a vacation retreat.

25. 2021-12-14
    historical
26. 1999-07-28
    listed $72,500
27. 1996-05-01
    soldstatus $53,000
28. 1984-08-01
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,311
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$2,104
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,785
• − Management: −$1,785
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable income: $878
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$211
• After-tax cash flow: $3,431/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+399.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $174,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $179,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $189,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 1999-07-28 Listed $72,500 CPARMLS
• 1996-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 1984-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,104 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.