3212 Rosalie St · Houston, TX 77004

$233,145

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,413 sqft · SingleFamily · 83 Days on market

5,000 sqft lot $165/sqft · 21% below area Est $293k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

An affordable new one-story home currently under construction in Third Ward Houston. Don’t wait to call about this home. The home has a stone and brick front exterior with an impressive doorway that opens into the lovely foyer. This beautifully designed one story 3 bedroom 2 full bath contemporary home offers a large open concept living and entertainnment space open to the kitchen. Perfect single story, delivering all bedrooms on the first floor. The interior amenities include quartz counter tops, luxury vinyl flooring, stainless steel energy efficient appliances, five inch baseboards, and more. The home is part of the Midtown Redevelopment Authority, CCPPI and the City of Houston’s mission to create affordable new single-family homeownership opportunities throughout Houston.

Key facts

• Five inch baseboards
• Lovely foyer
• Impressive doorway

Tags

• STONE AND BRICK FRONT EXTERIOR
• IMPRESSIVE DOORWAY
• LOVELY FOYER
• LARGE OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• ENERGY EFFICIENT APPLIANCES
• FIVE INCH BASEBOARDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $233k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($975/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 581 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,961 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.49%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $293,416
• List price: $233,145
• Delta: -20.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3005 Tuam	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,535 (+9%)	12mo	$225,000	$147	66
3609 Beulah St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,427 (+1%)	12mo	$240,000	$168	65
3022 Mcilhenny St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,319 (-7%)	8mo	$179,900	$136	65
3704 Sauer St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-13%)	0mo	$219,900	$178	60
1721 Aden Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,410 (-0%)	12mo	$295,000	$209	53
1774 Aden Dr	0.72mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,410 (-0%)	8mo	$289,000	$205	52
1773 Aden Dr	0.71mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,410 (-0%)	10mo	$284,900	$202	52
3605 Mcgowen St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,254 (-11%)	7mo	$205,000	$163	50
1747 Aden Mist Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,283 (-9%)	0mo	$279,000	$217	46
1762 Aden Mist Dr	0.69mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,540 (+9%)	2mo	$282,000	$183	44
2306 Hadley St	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,582 (+12%)	3mo	$339,000	$214	43
1708 Aden Mist Dr	0.71mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,516 (+7%)	9mo	$318,000	$210	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-38,236
• Equity at exit: $34,763

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-48,415
• Equity at exit: $20,158

Cash invested: $65,281 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77004

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 581
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,890 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,223
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,101/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,787

Max offer price $233,145

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,286
• Closing costs: $6,994
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3270 Reeves St Unit 3274 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1044	$875	$0.84	24d	1	0.23mi
3229 Holman St Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	1632	$1,200	$0.74	43d	1	0.26mi
3210 Winbern St Unit B Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,095	$1.09	20d	1	0.38mi
3012 Live Oak St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,395	$1.17	20d	1	0.47mi
3309 Webster St Unit 1472545P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1334	$3,383	$2.54	2d	1	0.49mi
3719 Elgin St Houston, TX	1.0–5.0	1.0–5.0	1241	$1,374	$1.11	24d	14	0.54mi
2675 Gray St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	838	$1,057	$1.26	43d	6	0.60mi
3448 Coyle St Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,207	$1.05	3d	1	0.65mi
3448 Coyle St Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1024	$936	$0.91	3d	1	0.65mi
3448 Coyle St Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,215	$1.06	16d	1	0.65mi
3448 Coyle St Unit 421 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1024	$944	$0.92	7d	1	0.65mi
3448 Coyle St Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1024	$944	$0.92	5d	1	0.65mi
2202 Hutchins St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	887	$1,500	$1.69	43d	1	0.83mi
2401 Eagle St Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	1700	$2,800	$1.65	43d	1	0.84mi
2311 Eagle St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	1783	$2,500	$1.40	43d	1	0.88mi
2102 Gray St Unit Na Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1267	$2,200	$1.74	22d	1	0.89mi
1907 Cullen Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,509	$1.59	18d	1	0.90mi
1907 Cullen Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,509	$1.59	20d	1	0.90mi
2703 Blodgett St Unit 1047952P Houston, TX	1.0–5.0	1.5–5.5	2497	$11,718	$4.69	1d	2	0.97mi
2319 Rosewood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1333	$1,515	$1.14	24d	1	0.99mi
3603 Chenevert St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$2,129	$2.09	13d	8	1.00mi
2301 Chenevert St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,900	$1.85	24d	1	1.02mi
3609 Chenevert St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1168	$1,749	$1.50	19d	1	1.03mi
3609 Chenevert St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1168	$1,749	$1.50	22d	1	1.03mi
2425 Bell St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$2,806	$3.26	2d	76	1.04mi
2216 Chenevert St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.5	1380	$2,800	$2.03	24d	3	1.04mi
3237 Rosedale St #4 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	10d	1	1.04mi
2615 Arbor St Unit 1047947P Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1194	$2,387	$2.00	2d	1	1.08mi
2615 Arbor St Unit 1047942P Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1194	$2,742	$2.30	22d	1	1.08mi
1920 Hamilton St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1117	$2,160	$1.93	43d	1	1.09mi
1800 Saint Joseph Pkwy Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1117	$1,737	$1.56	3d	1	1.09mi
1800 Saint Joseph Pkwy Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1117	$1,780	$1.59	5d	1	1.09mi
1800 Saint Joseph Pkwy Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,900	$1.85	43d	1	1.10mi
1800 Saint Joseph Pkwy Unit 1837 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1117	$1,769	$1.58	10d	1	1.10mi
1800 St Joseph Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,900	$2.00	7d	3	1.10mi
2401 Crawford St Unit A210 Houston, TX	2.0	2.5	963	$2,800	$2.91	24d	1	1.10mi
2511 Arbor St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1368	$2,450	$1.79	10d	1	1.11mi
2340 Polk St Unit EEL1 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,775	$1.69	43d	1	1.15mi
2307 Arbor St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1325	$2,295	$1.73	43d	1	1.18mi
2649 Austin St Unit CL2 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,710	$1.66	3d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 798-char remark

   Show marketing remark (798 chars)

   An affordable new one-story home currently under construction in Third Ward Houston. Don’t wait to call about this home. The home has a stone and brick front exterior with an impressive doorway that opens into the lovely foyer. This beautifully designed one story 3 bedroom 2 full bath contemporary home offers a large open concept living and entertainnment space open to the kitchen. Perfect single story, delivering all bedrooms on the first floor. The interior amenities include quartz counter tops, luxury vinyl flooring, stainless steel energy efficient appliances, five inch baseboards, and more. The home is part of the Midtown Redevelopment Authority, CCPPI and the City of Houston’s mission to create affordable new single-family homeownership opportunities throughout Houston.

2. 2026-04-20
   price $233,145 798-char remark

   Show marketing remark (798 chars)

   An affordable new one-story home currently under construction in Third Ward Houston. Don’t wait to call about this home. The home has a stone and brick front exterior with an impressive doorway that opens into the lovely foyer. This beautifully designed one story 3 bedroom 2 full bath contemporary home offers a large open concept living and entertainnment space open to the kitchen. Perfect single story, delivering all bedrooms on the first floor. The interior amenities include quartz counter tops, luxury vinyl flooring, stainless steel energy efficient appliances, five inch baseboards, and more. The home is part of the Midtown Redevelopment Authority, CCPPI and the City of Houston’s mission to create affordable new single-family homeownership opportunities throughout Houston.

3. 2026-02-22
   listed $237,882 Active 798-char remark

   Show marketing remark (798 chars)

   An affordable new one-story home currently under construction in Third Ward Houston. Don’t wait to call about this home. The home has a stone and brick front exterior with an impressive doorway that opens into the lovely foyer. This beautifully designed one story 3 bedroom 2 full bath contemporary home offers a large open concept living and entertainnment space open to the kitchen. Perfect single story, delivering all bedrooms on the first floor. The interior amenities include quartz counter tops, luxury vinyl flooring, stainless steel energy efficient appliances, five inch baseboards, and more. The home is part of the Midtown Redevelopment Authority, CCPPI and the City of Houston’s mission to create affordable new single-family homeownership opportunities throughout Houston.

4. 2014-01-30
   soldstatus
5. 2014-01-06
   soldstatus
6. 2013-11-19
   soldstatus
7. 2013-11-15
   soldstatus Sold 282-char remark

   Show marketing remark (282 chars)

   This lot has been cleared and ready for use. The tax rate is low and the location is only a few minutes from several freeways and the downtown area. The Medical Center, Museum of Fine Arts and other entertainment centers are nearby, as well as several instutions of higher learning.

8. 2013-10-18
   status Pending 282-char remark

   Show marketing remark (282 chars)

   This lot has been cleared and ready for use. The tax rate is low and the location is only a few minutes from several freeways and the downtown area. The Medical Center, Museum of Fine Arts and other entertainment centers are nearby, as well as several instutions of higher learning.

9. 2013-08-29
   listed $35,000 Active 282-char remark

   Show marketing remark (282 chars)

   This lot has been cleared and ready for use. The tax rate is low and the location is only a few minutes from several freeways and the downtown area. The Medical Center, Museum of Fine Arts and other entertainment centers are nearby, as well as several instutions of higher learning.

10. 2013-03-31
    historical
11. 2012-02-17
    listed $50,000 Active
12. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,101 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,267 · $356/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,166/yr (+$264/mo · 287.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,675
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,060
• − Property taxes: −$1,101
• − Insurance: −$1,166
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,814
• − Management: −$1,814
• − Depreciation: −$6,782
• Taxable loss: −$3,062
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$735
• After-tax cash flow: $1,710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 35,997
• Household income: $71,199
• Rent vs Own: 61.8% rent · 38.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.34%
• Current HPI: 199.6066
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+366.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $233,145 HARMLS
• 2026-02-22 Listed $237,882 HARMLS
• 2014-01-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-01-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-11-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-11-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-10-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-08-29 Listed $35,000 HARMLS
• 2013-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-02-17 Listed $50,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-3.5%/yr

Latest (2014): $1,101 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.