4017 Tree Ridge Ln NE · Palm Bay, FL 32905

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · Townhouse public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1981 871 sqft lot $99/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This townhouse is located in a very convenient area and waiting for a new owner. It's close to shopping centers, restaurants, recreational parks, hospitals, and so forth. Repairs needed.

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Tree ridge community
• $99 HOA

Tags

• TREE RIDGE COMMUNITY
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• EASY ACCESS TO NEARBY BEACHES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Pinewood; Association fee $99.50 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Two levels; Faces west; Property is attached
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Shingle roof; Pets allowed
• Exterior features: Balcony; Asphalt road access; Lot features: Other

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Pantry; Balcony
• Laundry & utility: Unfurnished (unit)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $458 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stone Magnet Middle School (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #426 of 571 statewide, top 75%, 670 students, 69% FRL); Palm Bay Magnet Senior High School (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,486 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 43% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brevard average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $125k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.71%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $3,746
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $20,837
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32905

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,797 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,860/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$99
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,217

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3814 Tree Ridge Ln NE Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.5	1170	$1,500	$1.28	23d	1	0.03mi
1123 Tree Ridge Ln NE Palm Bay, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,350	$1.55	23d	1	0.06mi
2130 Forest Knoll Dr NE #202 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1069	$1,450	$1.36	23d	1	0.07mi
2100 Forest Knoll Dr NE #202 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1069	$1,600	$1.50	14d	1	0.07mi
3513 Tree Ridge Ln NE Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.5	1170	$2,000	$1.71	23d	1	0.09mi
1701 Forest Knoll Dr NE Palm Bay, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1200	$2,050	$1.71	14d	5	0.11mi
2160 Forest Knoll Dr NE Unit 60-102 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1069	$1,350	$1.26	23d	1	0.11mi
1625 Sunny Brook Ln NE Unit G103 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	914	$1,700	$1.86	23d	1	0.12mi
1649 Sunny Brook Ln NE Palm Bay, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	760	$1,950	$2.57	14d	2	0.12mi
1601 Sunny Brook Ln NE Unit D101 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	846	$1,550	$1.83	23d	1	0.12mi
1641 Sunny Brook Ln NE Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	862	$1,500	$1.74	14d	3	0.12mi
2190 Forest Knoll Dr NE Unit 90-202 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1069	$1,400	$1.31	23d	1	0.13mi
1608 Sunny Brook Ln Palm Bay, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,600	$1.54	23d	6	0.15mi
1656 Sunny Brook Ln NE Unit L102 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	914	$1,690	$1.85	21d	1	0.24mi
1264 Dawn St NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,950	$1.66	14d	1	0.25mi
1265 Ethel Cir NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1346	$1,750	$1.30	14d	1	0.29mi
1625 Par St NE Unit 1104 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1025	$2,100	$2.05	23d	1	0.33mi
1625 Par St NE Unit 1207 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,025	$1.68	23d	1	0.33mi
1625 Par St NE Unit 1206 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,050	$1.70	23d	1	0.33mi
1625 Par St NE Unit 1107 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,875	$1.83	23d	1	0.33mi
1605 Par St NE Unit 3102 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1025	$2,100	$2.05	23d	1	0.36mi
1605 Par St NE Unit 3204 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,000	$1.66	23d	1	0.36mi
1605 Par St NE Unit 3202 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,300	$1.90	23d	1	0.36mi
1635 Par St NE Unit 2103 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1025	$2,100	$2.05	23d	1	0.39mi
1635 Par St NE Unit 2203 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,300	$1.90	23d	1	0.39mi
1625 Par St NE Unit 1203 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,075	$1.72	23d	1	0.39mi
1625 Par St NE Unit 1205 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,300	$1.90	23d	1	0.39mi
1000 Palm Place Dr NE Palm Bay, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	884	$2,185	$2.47	21d	8	0.42mi
1687 Avery Rd NE Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	876	$1,800	$2.05	23d	1	0.42mi
1311 Cindy Cir NE Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	865	$1,700	$1.97	23d	1	0.68mi
1907 Cleveland St NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,985	$1.50	23d	1	0.77mi
1501 Harvard Cir Melbourne, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1075	$2,000	$1.86	23d	3	0.88mi
1300 Arlington Ln NE #125 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.5	1140	$1,500	$1.32	19d	1	0.90mi
2152 Spring Creek Cir NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1465	$2,249	$1.54	23d	1	0.92mi
1555 Omega St NE Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1176	$1,795	$1.53	23d	1	0.94mi
1411 Sheafe Ave NE #102 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	1.0	1156	$1,550	$1.34	23d	1	0.96mi
1030 Abada Ct NE #110 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1163	$1,800	$1.55	23d	1	0.98mi
1431 Sheafe Ave NE #104 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1163	$1,500	$1.29	23d	1	0.99mi
1245 Palm Bay Rd Palm Bay, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	807	$1,425	$1.76	23d	6	0.99mi
1471 Sheafe Ave NE #102 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1180	$1,800	$1.53	23d	1	1.00mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $99 · $1,188/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   pricedays on market $125,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $134,900 Active
16. 2023-08-12
    historical 186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    This townhouse is located in a very convenient area and waiting for a new owner. It's close to shopping centers, restaurants, recreational parks, hospitals, and so forth. Repairs needed.

17. 2023-03-31
    price $224,000 186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    This townhouse is located in a very convenient area and waiting for a new owner. It's close to shopping centers, restaurants, recreational parks, hospitals, and so forth. Repairs needed.

18. 2023-02-12
    listed $228,000 Active 186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    This townhouse is located in a very convenient area and waiting for a new owner. It's close to shopping centers, restaurants, recreational parks, hospitals, and so forth. Repairs needed.

19. 2019-08-29
    historical 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    * THIS IS NOT A SHORT SALE * Looking for a great location, convenient to everything, yet tucked away for privacy? This corner unit has two master suites with their own baths and large closets on the 2nd floor. The laundry room is downstairs and has a half-bath. Fenced patio for your barbecue. There is not a lower price in this location.

20. 2009-02-12
    listed $69,900 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    * THIS IS NOT A SHORT SALE * Looking for a great location, convenient to everything, yet tucked away for privacy? This corner unit has two master suites with their own baths and large closets on the 2nd floor. The laundry room is downstairs and has a half-bath. Fenced patio for your barbecue. There is not a lower price in this location.

21. 2004-05-26
    soldstatus $55,500
22. 2004-05-21
    soldstatus $55,500
23. 2004-02-25
    listed $56,500
24. 1994-01-04
    soldstatus $18,500
25. 1984-07-01
    soldstatus $46,900
26. 1981-07-01
    soldstatus $46,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,860 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,860 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,566
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,860
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,725
• − Management: −$1,725
• − HOA: −$1,188
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $3,804
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$913
• After-tax cash flow: $4,585/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Bay, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 132,211
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,792
• Household income: $56,411
• Rent vs Own: 44.0% rent · 56.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1962.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 16% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.59%
• Current HPI: 309.8748
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.52%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+190.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $134,900 SCMLS
• 2023-08-12 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2023-03-31 Price Changed $224,000 SCMLS
• 2023-02-12 Listed $228,000 SCMLS
• 2019-08-29 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2009-02-12 Listed $69,900 SCMLS
• 2004-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $55,500 Public Records
• 2004-05-21 Sold (MLS) $55,500 SCMLS
• 2004-02-25 Listed $56,500 SCMLS
• 1994-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records
• 1984-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $46,900 Public Records
• 1981-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $46,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+33.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,860 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.