6424 West Dr · Guthrie, OK 73044

$195,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,079 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1973 Est $186k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 1119 square foot single family home has 3 bedrooms and 1.0 bathrooms. This home is located at 6424 West Dr, Guthrie, OK 73044.

Key facts

• Built 1973

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($148/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.0% in Guthrie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#15 in OK, #4,696 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Guthrie (town): math 24% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #119 of 270 in OK (top 44%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.2%/yr); 843 active listings in the ZIP; 102 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Logan County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,747 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.27%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,588
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6521 West Dr	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,224 (+13%)	6mo	$210,000	$172	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-22,867
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $17,292
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73044

• Home prices YoY: -25.9%
• Rents YoY: 12.2%
• Active inventory: 843
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,517 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $991/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,502

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $195,000 Active
2. 2026-04-10
   soldstatus $195,000
3. 2015-10-16
   historical
4. 2015-10-07
   price $105,000
5. 2015-10-05
   status Active
6. 2015-08-24
   status Pending
7. 2015-08-03
   price $109,650
8. 2015-07-02
   status Active
9. 2015-06-09
   status Pending
10. 2015-04-15
    price $114,450
11. 2015-04-02
    listed $119,450 Active
12. 2015-01-12
    soldstatus $56,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $991 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,755 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: +$764/yr (+$64/mo · 77.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$991
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,457
• − Management: −$1,457
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$3,266
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$784
• After-tax cash flow: $932/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Guthrie
• NCES district ID: 4013560
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,370
• Composite: 20.79/100
• National rank: #8513
• State rank: #119 of 270 in OK

Livability — Guthrie

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #4696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Guthrie, OK
• County: Logan County · 25,398 people
• City population: 25,398
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• Population (ZIP): 25,398
• Household income: $72,288
• Rent vs Own: 20.3% rent · 79.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 397.0

Population outlook (Logan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,683 people
• By 2030: 60,011 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 68,071 · +22.2%
• By 2050: 75,815 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 94,749 · +70.2%
• By 2100: 108,057 · +94.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Logan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.0) · D 24.4% · R 73.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -49.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.0 2020: R+47.1 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+44.8 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.90%
• Current HPI: 247.9481
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.22%
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+245.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $195,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2015-10-16 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2015-10-07 Price Changed $105,000 MLSOK
• 2015-10-05 Relisted — MLSOK
• 2015-08-24 Pending — MLSOK
• 2015-08-03 Price Changed $109,650 MLSOK
• 2015-07-02 Relisted — MLSOK
• 2015-06-09 Pending — MLSOK
• 2015-04-15 Price Changed $114,450 MLSOK
• 2015-04-02 Listed $119,450 MLSOK
• 2015-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $56,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $991 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.