651B Plymouth Dr Unit B · Leisure Village, NJ 08701

$189,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 858 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

Built 1970 871 sqft lot $220/sqft · at area comps Est $193k · at est. · waterfront $388/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WOW! Lakefront - Lake Waddill - Rear Door - Front Patio - Tile Floor Front Porch - Tile kitchen floor, re-modeled and newer appliances - pergo floors throughout living room & bedrooms - upgraded tile bath floors and wall around tub, newer vanity. Check this WOW out - move in an enjoy serene living.

Key facts

• Parking
• Community pool
• Built 1970

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA present (Leisure Village HOA); Monthly association fee of $388; HOA covers trash, common area, fire/liability, lawn maintenance, pool, and snow removal; Community room amenity

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium ownership (fee simple, attached unit)
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Waterfront property

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (approx. 16 x 8)
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms; Bedroom (approx. 13 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No fireplaces; Living room (approx. 25 x 13); Sunroom (approx. 17 x 5)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-472/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (3.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#416 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, cost of living B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lakewood Township School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #417 of 472 in NJ (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 425 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $189k implies a 226% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,303 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.89%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,739
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -1.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
110F Edinburgh Ln	0.35mi	2/1.0	858 (0%)	3mo	$130,000	$152	82
681B New Castle Ct	0.11mi	2/1.0	982 (+14%)	2mo	$147,000	$150	69
677B New Castle Ct	0.10mi	2/1.0	982 (+14%)	3mo	$200,000	$204	69
699A Plymouth Dr Unit 699A	0.18mi	2/1.0	982 (+14%)	1mo	$259,000	$264	67
703 Plymouth Dr Unit A	0.25mi	2/1.0	982 (+14%)	1mo	$265,000	$270	64
145B Buckingham Dr	0.51mi	1/1.0 (-1)	808 (-6%)	1mo	$179,900	$223	61
237 Huntington Dr Unit C	0.54mi	1/1.0 (-1)	892 (+4%)	3mo	$155,000	$174	60
240B Huntington Dr	0.50mi	2/1.0	982 (+14%)	3mo	$220,000	$224	50
131 Farrington Ct Unit B	0.49mi	2/1.0	982 (+14%)	4mo	$200,000	$204	50
156A Gramercy Ct	0.57mi	2/1.0	982 (+14%)	4mo	$173,000	$176	46
228C Buckingham Ct	0.66mi	2/1.0	982 (+14%)	4mo	$197,000	$201	42
221A Buckingham Ct	0.68mi	2/1.0	982 (+14%)	4mo	$170,000	$173	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-32,864
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-30,749
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08701

• Active inventory: 425
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,095 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$236 /mo · $2,835/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$388
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,144

Max offer price $183,303

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $91	-5% $26	+0% $-39	+5% $-105	+10% $-170
Rent	-10% $-205	-5% $-122	+0% $-39	+5% $43	+10% $126
Rate	-1.0pp $56	-0.5pp $9	base $-39	+0.5pp $-88	+1.0pp $-138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106A Edinburgh Ln Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	858	$2,200	$2.56	19d	1	0.26mi
47L Cambridge Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	841	$1,795	$2.13	26d	1	0.34mi
278C Kingston Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,250	$2.25	3d	1	0.48mi
341B Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,275	$2.32	23d	1	0.66mi
219 Buckingham Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,900	$2.87	45d	1	0.73mi
335A Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$1,950	$1.99	20d	1	0.77mi
824A Balmoral Ct Unit A Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,200	$2.24	20d	1	1.40mi
829A Balmoral Ct Unit 1001 Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,600	$2.41	26d	1	1.41mi
523 Sophee Ln #1000 Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	889	$1,800	$2.02	0d	1	1.42mi
1042C Aberdeen Dr Unit C Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,000	$2.04	5d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $388 · $4,656/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $189,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,651 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,651 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,651 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,651 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,651 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-04-25
    listed $199,651 Active 760-char remark
17. 2026-04-23
    historical $199,651 760-char remark
18. 2015-03-01
    soldstatus $58,000 Closed 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    WOW! Lakefront - Lake Waddill - Rear Door - Front Patio - Tile Floor Front Porch - Tile kitchen floor, re-modeled and newer appliances - pergo floors throughout living room & bedrooms - upgraded tile bath floors and wall around tub, newer vanity. Check this WOW out - move in an enjoy serene living.

19. 2015-01-24
    status Under Contract 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    WOW! Lakefront - Lake Waddill - Rear Door - Front Patio - Tile Floor Front Porch - Tile kitchen floor, re-modeled and newer appliances - pergo floors throughout living room & bedrooms - upgraded tile bath floors and wall around tub, newer vanity. Check this WOW out - move in an enjoy serene living.

20. 2014-12-07
    historical 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    WOW! Lakefront - Lake Waddill - Rear Door - Front Patio - Tile Floor Front Porch - Tile kitchen floor, re-modeled and newer appliances - pergo floors throughout living room & bedrooms - upgraded tile bath floors and wall around tub, newer vanity. Check this WOW out - move in an enjoy serene living.

21. 2014-06-26
    listed $69,900 Active 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    WOW! Lakefront - Lake Waddill - Rear Door - Front Patio - Tile Floor Front Porch - Tile kitchen floor, re-modeled and newer appliances - pergo floors throughout living room & bedrooms - upgraded tile bath floors and wall around tub, newer vanity. Check this WOW out - move in an enjoy serene living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,136
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,835
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,011
• − Management: −$2,011
• − HOA: −$4,656
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$3,407
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$818
• After-tax cash flow: $345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakewood Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408220
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,301
• Composite: 19.21/100
• National rank: #8813
• State rank: #417 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #14624

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 139,149
• Household income: $64,959
• Rent vs Own: 48.5% rent · 51.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 5757.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 5% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -682.83%
• Current HPI: 465.344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+170.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $189,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $199,651 MOMLS
• 2026-04-23 Coming Soon $199,651 MOMLS
• 2015-03-01 Sold (MLS) $58,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-01-24 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-12-07 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-06-26 Listed $69,900 BRIGHT MLS