195 Aris Ave · Cheektowaga, NY 14206

$189,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,126 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1952 4,792 sqft lot Est $223k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Vinyl sided home with newer roof (2025), basesment drainage and sump pump (2023) and HWT (2023). Home has central air, and a transfer switch for generator. Railings at front and rear entrance replaced in last 2 years. Windows replaced in 2018. Negotiations begin Tuesday June 16th at 5pm.

Key facts

• Vinyl sided home
• Basement drainage
• Sump pump

Tags

• VINYL SIDED HOME
• NEWER ROOF
• BASEMENT DRAINAGE
• SUMP PUMP
• CENTRAL AIR
• TRANSFER SWITCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Vinyl siding; Resale property
• Construction: Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Gas oven; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Main level bedroom (2); Lower-level bedroom; Lower-level bedroom (dimensions 12 x 9); Additional bedroom (dimensions 14 x 11)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Bedroom on main level; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-229 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (21.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.8% in Cheektowaga — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#54 in NY, #811 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Cheektowaga-Sloan Union Free School District (urban): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #555 of 590 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Theodore Roosevelt School (328 students, 47% FRL); John F Kennedy Middle School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #550 of 729 statewide, top 77%, 279 students, 54% FRL); John F Kennedy Senior High School (math 82% / reading 24%, grade C-, #934 of 1,100 statewide, top 86%, 370 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $149,445 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.17%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $222,948
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
108 Crisfield Ave	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,152 (+2%)	5mo	$220,000	$191	81
56 Peoria Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,136 (+1%)	0mo	$260,000	$229	79
180 Bright St	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,222 (+8%)	4mo	$242,000	$198	75
255 Crisfield Ave	0.10mi	3/1.0	990 (-12%)	2mo	$195,000	$197	74
83 Patricia Ln	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-0%)	1mo	$265,000	$237	67
29 Frederick St	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,202 (+7%)	3mo	$232,500	$193	67
42 Henry St	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,074 (-5%)	6mo	$155,000	$144	66
43 Starlite Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-0%)	4mo	$250,000	$223	66
2302 William St	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,208 (+7%)	5mo	$142,000	$118	66
104 Starlite Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-0%)	2mo	$260,000	$232	64
34 Lehigh St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,024 (-9%)	5mo	$129,000	$126	62
104 Iroquois Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0	972 (-14%)	2mo	$248,500	$256	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $64,511
• Equity at exit: $145,027

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.73×
• Total profit: $198,356
• Equity at exit: $288,600

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14206

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,647 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$455 /mo · $5,465/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,937

Max offer price $149,445

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-122	-5% $-175	+0% $-229	+5% $-283	+10% $-337
Rent	-10% $-359	-5% $-294	+0% $-229	+5% $-164	+10% $-99
Rate	-1.0pp $-133	-0.5pp $-181	base $-229	+0.5pp $-278	+1.0pp $-328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14 Rutland Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1430	$2,200	$1.54	12d	1	1.00mi
65 Edgebrook Ests Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	720	$1,290	$1.79	46d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,900 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 288-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $189,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,465 · $455/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,465 · $455/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,768
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$5,465
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,581
• − Management: −$1,581
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$5,971
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,433
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cheektowaga-Sloan Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627000
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,810
• Composite: 30.35/100
• National rank: #6263
• State rank: #555 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cheektowaga

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #54
• US rank: #811

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cheektowaga, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,631
• Household income: $50,450
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 841.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 25% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.06%
• Current HPI: 457.3935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $189,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,465 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.