2313 VZ County Road 1412 · Van, TX 75790

$70,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2013 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Solitaire Manufactured Home Fully remodeled with Ultra White paint, Kettle Black trim, and textured black R-panel roof & amp; underpinning. Includes Ecobee thermostat, custom shiplap master headboard with built-in lighting, outlets & amp; USB ports, shiplap mantle with electric fireplace & amp; TV mount, plus newer updated range and dishwasher. 1,152 sq ft & acirc; & euro; & cent; To be moved Sheetrock walls (not panel board). One of the heavier mobile homes built using higher-end materials and very well insulated. Porch can be included. $78,000 obo

Key facts

• Newer updated range
• Fully remodeled
• Shiplap mantle

Tags

• FULLY REMODELED
• ECOBEE THERMOSTAT
• SHIPLAP MANTLE
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• TV MOUNT
• NEWER UPDATED RANGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $671 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.8% vs local median 2.3% in Van — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#505 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Van ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Van Zandt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Van Zandt County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,950 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.07%
• DSCR: 2.83
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,816
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
520 Chestnut Dr	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,007 (-13%)	15mo	$184,000	$183	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $31,412
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.21×
• Total profit: $82,485
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75790

• Home prices YoY: -11.4%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,473 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,162/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $671

Break-even live

Break-even rent $624

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $70,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $70,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $78,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $78,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $78,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $78,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $78,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $78,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $78,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $78,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $78,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $78,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    remarks 557-char remark
17. 2026-05-30
    listed $78,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,162 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,281 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$119/yr (+$10/mo · 10.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,680
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,162
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,414
• − Management: −$1,414
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $7,382
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,772
• After-tax cash flow: $6,279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This fully remodeled Solitaire manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good balance of modern amenities and curb appeal, making it a strong candidate for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value.
• Both Addition of smart home features — Improves energy efficiency and adds modern amenities.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Addition of smart home features — Improves energy efficiency and adds modern amenities. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843920
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,308
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5120
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Van

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #505
• US rank: #9995

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,790
• Population (ZIP): 3,790

Population outlook (Van Zandt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,634 people
• By 2030: 56,479 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 57,672 · +3.7%
• By 2050: 57,913 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 57,544 · +3.4%
• By 2100: 52,659 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Italian 1% Greek 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Zandt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+74.8) · D 12.3% · R 87.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -55.1pp · 2024: -74.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+74.8 2020: R+72.1 2016: R+72.1 2012: R+66.6 2008: R+55.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.57%
• Current HPI: 213.6886
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $78,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,162 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.