27150 Shadel Rd #100 Plan · Menifee, CA 92586

$129,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · Manufactured · 850 Days on market

Good condition $111/sqft · 9% above area Est $120k · 9% over ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tempo Series Whole Lotta Love 3 BR / 2 BA 1,266 SQ. FT. Includes Porch #137 Living Rm, Dining Rm, Kitchen Serial#: PER040237CAAB OPEN HOUSE: Mon-Fri 9:00am-4:00pm This brand-new, home features: 3 Bedrooms with 2 Full Bathrooms. It has a large open living space and a large kitchen with added dining space and a laundry area. ALL BRAND NEW, throughout the home, new appliances, a large kitchen island, Disclaimer: Pictures are for examples and may not be of actual homes. These are general features and may be different from the actual home.

Key facts

• Listed 849 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 3.6% in Menifee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#407 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, amenities D.
• Menifee Union Elementary (suburban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #434 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,456/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1163% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 850 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,395 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 850 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.36%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $119,519
• List price: $129,995
• Delta: 8.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27150 SHADEL Rd #42	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (+3%)	11mo	$63,000	$53	82
27150 Shadel Rd #144	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+5%)	4mo	$125,000	$101	79
27150 Shadel Rd #82	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-4%)	4mo	$75,000	$67	76
27150 Shadel Rd #108	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (-8%)	1mo	$72,500	$67	73
27601 Sun City Blvd 136	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (+3%)	8mo	$155,000	$129	69
27601 Sun City Blvd #306	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+13%)	0mo	$173,000	$131	63
27150 Shadel Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+15%)	11mo	$175,000	$130	58
27601 Sun City Blvd #63	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+7%)	10mo	$134,000	$107	56
27601 Sun City Blvd #192	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+11%)	10mo	$144,000	$111	55
27601 Sun City Blvd #248	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (-8%)	12mo	$70,000	$65	54
27601 sun city Blvd #268	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+15%)	3mo	$80,000	$60	49
27601 Sun City Blvd #256	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+15%)	7mo	$130,000	$97	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $53,247
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.58×
• Total profit: $166,534
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,399 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92586

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,456 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $1,042

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $129,995

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,499
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
28082 Bavaria Dr Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1065	$2,250	$2.11	1d	1	0.44mi
28244 Encanto Dr Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,300	$2.56	1d	1	0.50mi
27709 Camino Donaire Menifee, CA	3.0	2.0	1317	$3,000	$2.28	1d	1	0.55mi
28301 Encanto Dr Unit 10 Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,200	$2.44	17d	1	0.56mi
28230 Avenida Francesca Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1116	$2,250	$2.02	1d	1	0.58mi
28301 Encanto Dr Menifee, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$2,025	$2.32	1d	5	0.62mi
27051 Sun City Blvd Unit 1 Menifee, CA	2.0	1.0	729	$1,975	$2.71	1d	1	0.67mi
28377 Encanto Dr Menifee, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	815	$2,425	$2.98	1d	7	0.71mi
27757 Aspel Rd Menifee, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1026	$2,869	$2.80	1d	15	0.91mi
29196 Crestone Dr Sun City, CA	2.0	2.0	1393	$1,995	$1.43	19d	1	0.94mi
26156 Birkdale Rd Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1285	$2,000	$1.56	1d	1	1.10mi
28375 Paseo Grande Dr Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1285	$2,395	$1.86	1d	1	1.10mi
28323 Murrieta Rd Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1098	$2,350	$2.14	19d	1	1.31mi
25861 McCall Blvd Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1378	$2,350	$1.71	1d	1	1.32mi
27077 El Rancho Dr Menifee, CA	3.0	2.0	1364	$2,600	$1.91	1d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,995 Active 850 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,995 Active 849 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,995 Active 848 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,995 Active 847 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,995 Active 845 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,995 Active 841 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,995 Active 840 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,995 Active 839 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $129,995 Active 836 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,995 Active 835 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,995 Active 834 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,995 Active 833 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,995 Active 832 DOM
14. 2024-05-21
    price $129,995 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    Tempo Series Whole Lotta Love 3 BR / 2 BA 1,266 SQ. FT. Includes Porch #137 Living Rm, Dining Rm, Kitchen Serial#: PER040237CAAB OPEN HOUSE: Mon-Fri 9:00am-4:00pm This brand-new, home features: 3 Bedrooms with 2 Full Bathrooms. It has a large open living space and a large kitchen with added dining space and a laundry area. ALL BRAND NEW, throughout the home, new appliances, a large kitchen island, Disclaimer: Pictures are for examples and may not be of actual homes. These are general features and may be different from the actual home.

15. 2024-04-13
    price $133,995 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    Tempo Series Whole Lotta Love 3 BR / 2 BA 1,266 SQ. FT. Includes Porch #137 Living Rm, Dining Rm, Kitchen Serial#: PER040237CAAB OPEN HOUSE: Mon-Fri 9:00am-4:00pm This brand-new, home features: 3 Bedrooms with 2 Full Bathrooms. It has a large open living space and a large kitchen with added dining space and a laundry area. ALL BRAND NEW, throughout the home, new appliances, a large kitchen island, Disclaimer: Pictures are for examples and may not be of actual homes. These are general features and may be different from the actual home.

16. 2024-02-19
    listed $139,995 Active 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    Tempo Series Whole Lotta Love 3 BR / 2 BA 1,266 SQ. FT. Includes Porch #137 Living Rm, Dining Rm, Kitchen Serial#: PER040237CAAB OPEN HOUSE: Mon-Fri 9:00am-4:00pm This brand-new, home features: 3 Bedrooms with 2 Full Bathrooms. It has a large open living space and a large kitchen with added dining space and a laundry area. ALL BRAND NEW, throughout the home, new appliances, a large kitchen island, Disclaimer: Pictures are for examples and may not be of actual homes. These are general features and may be different from the actual home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,476
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,358
• − Management: −$2,358
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $11,097
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,663
• After-tax cash flow: $9,843/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in excellent condition with recent renovations, making it move-in ready for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and adds value
• Both Install new lighting fixtures — Modern lighting enhances the home's appeal and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and adds value ↑
• Both Install new lighting fixtures — Modern lighting enhances the home's appeal and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Menifee Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0624540
• Math proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,228
• Composite: 45.17/100
• National rank: #5790
• State rank: #434 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Menifee

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #13882

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Menifee, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 111,667
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,767
• Household income: $57,708
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1163.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.18%
• Current HPI: 364.9577
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.10%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-05-21 Price Changed $129,995 Zillow
• 2024-04-13 Price Changed $133,995 Zillow
• 2024-02-19 Listed $139,995 Zillow