14251 Beach Rd · Brandermill, VA 23838

$359,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1971 0.93 ac lot $256/sqft · at area comps Est $359k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming all-brick rancher offering 3 bedrooms, 1,400 sqft, and easy access to all of Midlothian’s shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences. This lovingly maintained home features a 2024 roof, water heater, and kitchen floor, along with a new forced hot water heating system installed in 2025. The kitchen opens to the living room with a picture window, creating a connected and inviting space centered around a cozy gas fireplace. Outside, you’ll find a carport and a 2-car detached garage wired with electricity, providing excellent options for parking, storage, or a workshop. A solid home in a convenient location with timeless appeal.

Key facts

• Cozy gas fireplace
• All brick rancher
• 2024 roof

Tags

• ALL BRICK RANCHER
• 2024 ROOF
• CARPORT
• 2 CAR DETACHED GARAGE
• WIRED WITH ELECTRICITY
• COZY GAS FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $359k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $396 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $332k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $332k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.7% in Brandermill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#94 in VA, #3,055 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $331,790 (7.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.73%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $359,040
• List price: $359,000
• Delta: -0.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14241 Beach Rd	0.02mi	3/1.5	1,400 (0%)	10mo	$330,000	$236	91
14300 Beach Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+4%)	8mo	$415,000	$285	80
14101 W Hensley Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-3%)	2mo	$368,000	$272	76
11210 Celtic Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+8%)	7mo	$360,000	$238	61
10320 Ambridge Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+5%)	1mo	$380,000	$259	60
14410 Ranger Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,529 (+9%)	10mo	$375,000	$245	50
14300 Branding Iron Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,477 (+6%)	15mo	$270,000	$183	46
14430 Rosebud Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,534 (+10%)	10mo	$335,000	$218	41
11411 Winterpock Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,460 (+4%)	19mo	$421,000	$288	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-33,049
• Equity at exit: $53,528

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $3,276
• Equity at exit: $31,040

Cash invested: $100,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23838

• Home prices YoY: -25.9%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,318 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,883
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,313/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$697
• Net cashflow: $396

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,816

Max offer price $359,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $599	-5% $498	+0% $396	+5% $295	+10% $193
Rent	-10% $134	-5% $265	+0% $396	+5% $527	+10% $658
Rate	-1.0pp $577	-0.5pp $487	base $396	+0.5pp $303	+1.0pp $208

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,750
• Closing costs: $10,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 654-char remark

   Show marketing remark (654 chars)

   Charming all-brick rancher offering 3 bedrooms, 1,400 sqft, and easy access to all of Midlothian’s shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences. This lovingly maintained home features a 2024 roof, water heater, and kitchen floor, along with a new forced hot water heating system installed in 2025. The kitchen opens to the living room with a picture window, creating a connected and inviting space centered around a cozy gas fireplace. Outside, you’ll find a carport and a 2-car detached garage wired with electricity, providing excellent options for parking, storage, or a workshop. A solid home in a convenient location with timeless appeal.

2. 2026-04-22
   listed $359,000 Active 654-char remark

   Show marketing remark (654 chars)

   Charming all-brick rancher offering 3 bedrooms, 1,400 sqft, and easy access to all of Midlothian’s shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences. This lovingly maintained home features a 2024 roof, water heater, and kitchen floor, along with a new forced hot water heating system installed in 2025. The kitchen opens to the living room with a picture window, creating a connected and inviting space centered around a cozy gas fireplace. Outside, you’ll find a carport and a 2-car detached garage wired with electricity, providing excellent options for parking, storage, or a workshop. A solid home in a convenient location with timeless appeal.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,313 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,944 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: +$631/yr (+$53/mo · 27.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,110
• − Property taxes: −$2,313
• − Insurance: −$1,795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,185
• − Management: −$3,185
• − Depreciation: −$10,444
• Taxable loss: −$1,217
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$292
• After-tax cash flow: $5,046/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Brandermill

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #94
• US rank: #3055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 56,364
• Population (ZIP): 17,213

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Korean 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.94%
• Current HPI: 257.6855
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $359,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,313 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.