586 Ragers Hill Rd · St. Michael, PA 15956

$214,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,632 sqft · SingleFamily · 21 Days on market

Built 1925 1.20 ac lot $82/sqft · 16% below area Est $255k · 16% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Vinyl sided w/ Kitchen, dining room, large living room, bedroom and full bath on first level. Second level has 4 rooms (2 bedrooms, storage room and walk in closet). House is freshly painted. Upstairs needs carpeting. Large home on 1.2 acres of land. Some finish work and it will be a great home.

Key facts

• Partially wooded lot
• Updated paint
• Sunroom

Tags

• PARTIALLY WOODED LOT
• UPDATED FLOORING
• UPDATED PAINT
• SUNROOM
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer (sewer available)
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half levels; 1 total story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Irregular-shaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Electric heating; Oil heating
• Interior features: Main-level primary bedroom; Double pane windows; Wood-burning fireplace (1); Full, partially finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-241 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (19.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (38.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Forest Hills SD (rural): math 40% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #293 of 539 in PA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $215k implies a 230% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $132,185 (38.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.81%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,041
• List price: $214,900
• Delta: -15.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-8,953
• Equity at exit: $76,006

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $15,461
• Equity at exit: $103,080

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15956

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,322 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $826/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,627

Max offer price $172,317

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $214,900 Pending 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $214,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $214,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $214,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 1109-char remark
6. 2026-05-05
   listed $214,900 Active 1109-char remark
7. 2008-11-05
   soldstatus $65,190 296-char remark

   Show marketing remark (296 chars)

   Vinyl sided w/ Kitchen, dining room, large living room, bedroom and full bath on first level. Second level has 4 rooms (2 bedrooms, storage room and walk in closet). House is freshly painted. Upstairs needs carpeting. Large home on 1.2 acres of land. Some finish work and it will be a great home.

8. 2008-11-03
   soldstatus $65,190
9. 2008-07-11
   listed $74,900 296-char remark

   Show marketing remark (296 chars)

   Vinyl sided w/ Kitchen, dining room, large living room, bedroom and full bath on first level. Second level has 4 rooms (2 bedrooms, storage room and walk in closet). House is freshly painted. Upstairs needs carpeting. Large home on 1.2 acres of land. Some finish work and it will be a great home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $826 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,111 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,285/yr (+$107/mo · 155.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,862
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$826
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,269
• − Management: −$1,269
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$6,865
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,648
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forest Hills SD
• NCES district ID: 4209940
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $48,950
• Composite: 37.27/100
• National rank: #4452
• State rank: #293 of 539 in PA

Livability — St. Michael

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 550
• Population (ZIP): 2,464

Population outlook (Cambria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,754 people
• By 2030: 115,827 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 101,309 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 88,379 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 65,237 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 46,909 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Iranian 6% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Cambria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.7pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+37.8 2012: R+17.8 2008: D+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Current HPI: 65.5057
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+186.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Pending — CSMLS
• 2026-05-20 Relisted — CSMLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — CSMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $214,900 CSMLS
• 2008-11-05 Sold (MLS) $65,190 CSMLS
• 2008-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $65,190 Public Records
• 2008-07-11 Listed $74,900 CSMLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $826 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.