4913 39th St · Lubbock, TX 79414

$139,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,074 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1973 6,625 sqft lot $129/sqft · 14% below area Est $162k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath house full of warmth and character. Featuring tile throughout the main living areas and kitchen and a welcoming atmosphere perfect for relaxing evenings and everyday living. Step outside to enjoy a spacious backyard; ideal for pets, gatherings, or simply enjoying your own private outdoor space. The front patio adds the perfect touch for morning coffee or unwinding after a long day. With its inviting feel and functional layout, this home is ready to create lasting memories.

Key facts

• Front patio
• Spacious backyard
• 6,625 sq ft lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• FRONT PATIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 1 garage space; Additional parking; Circular driveway; Concrete driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected/available; Gas water heater
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as residential single family
• Exterior features: Private yard; Storage; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Free-standing electric range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (bedrooms included in room count)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Attic fan; Electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Pantry; Storage; Walk-in closets; Blinds/window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-176/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Williams El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 307 students, 76% FRL); Evans Middle (math 34% / reading 43%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 799 students, 58% FRL); Coronado H S (math 34% / reading 38%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,960 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 89 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,240 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.45%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,996
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -14.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-26,222
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-34,845
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79414

• Home prices YoY: -27.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,152 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,658/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $-15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,171

Max offer price $136,415

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4907 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	43d	1	0.10mi
4817 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,300	$1.04	13d	1	0.13mi
4907 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,200	$1.00	43d	1	0.16mi
4907 36th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,095	$1.07	13d	1	0.16mi
4818 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,400	$1.09	21d	1	0.21mi
4801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,275	$0.90	21d	1	0.23mi
5105 36th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	21d	1	0.27mi
4815 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,500	$1.17	21d	1	0.29mi
5024 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,300	$0.95	21d	1	0.31mi
4702 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	13d	1	0.32mi
4803 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,200	$0.85	21d	1	0.32mi
5106 35th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	840	$900	$1.07	21d	1	0.33mi
4819 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,300	$0.92	43d	1	0.35mi
4707 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,049	$1.00	13d	1	0.35mi
4708 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1249	$1,350	$1.08	43d	1	0.37mi
5101 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,350	$1.16	21d	1	0.40mi
5214 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	43d	1	0.40mi
5304 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	43d	1	0.42mi
4619 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,500	$1.07	43d	1	0.43mi
5306 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	43d	1	0.44mi
4916 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,450	$1.05	13d	1	0.44mi
5002 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,450	$1.06	43d	1	0.44mi
2902 Vicksburg Ave Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$710	$0.95	13d	3	0.52mi
3333 Toledo Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0–1.5	924	$741	$0.80	13d	7	0.53mi
4926 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,500	$1.11	21d	1	0.56mi
4510 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	888	$750	$0.84	21d	1	0.57mi
4510 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	888	$750	$0.84	43d	1	0.57mi
4430 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,100	$0.78	43d	1	0.62mi
4601 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	928	$995	$1.07	13d	1	0.63mi
4409 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,350	$1.35	13d	1	0.64mi
4413 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	21d	1	0.64mi
5415 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,450	$1.02	21d	1	0.69mi
4602 50th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1080	$1,043	$0.97	13d	9	0.70mi
5302 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	21d	1	0.70mi
4425 31st St Unit Fs Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$899	$0.90	21d	1	0.70mi
4705 Albany Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	926	$742	$0.80	13d	5	0.71mi
4423 31st St Unit 1 FS Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1024	$885	$0.86	21d	1	0.71mi
5406 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$695	$0.50	43d	1	0.76mi
3506 Peoria Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$625	$0.83	13d	1	0.77mi
5204 50th St Lubbock, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1050	$939	$0.89	13d	2	0.77mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $139,000 Active 525-char remark
2. 2023-04-11
   soldstatus
3. 1990-05-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,658 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,544 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$886/yr (+$74/mo · 53.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,829
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$1,658
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,106
• − Management: −$1,106
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$2,567
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$616
• After-tax cash flow: $440/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,596
• Household income: $49,057
• Rent vs Own: 65.4% rent · 34.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1330.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 21% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.31%
• Current HPI: 247.7963
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.56%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $139,000 LARMLS
• 2023-04-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,658 · -9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.