401 Private Road 7837 · West Tawakoni, TX 75169

$95,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1984 2.52 ac lot $103/sqft · at area comps Est $95k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located on 2.5 acres, this home offers a practical opportunity to create value with your own updates and vision. The living area provides a functional layout ready to be refreshed, while the kitchen includes a refrigerator that conveys with the sale, giving you a head start on essentials. The primary bedroom and additional spaces offer flexibility for customization to fit your needs. Outside, the property features a storm shelter for added peace of mind, a spacious shed for storage or projects, and a recently installed 2025 HVAC system already in place. Located about an hour from Dallas, Wills Point is known as the Bluebird Capital of Texas and offers a quiet setting with convenient access

Key facts

• Spacious shed
• 2.5 acres
• Storm shelter

Tags

• 2.5 ACRES
• STORM SHELTER
• SPACIOUS SHED
• RECENTLY INSTALLED HVAC

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential mobile home; Property is not in a municipal utility district; Will not subdivide
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash; Loan type: Treat As Clear; Second mortgage: None indicated
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking (no garage or covered/carport spaces listed)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Co-op water; Septic
• Home design: Mobile home; One story; Not attached to another property
• Construction: Built in 1984; Siding exterior; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porches; Storm cellar; Shed(s) / storage; Grassed yard; Corner lot; Large backyard with grass; Acreage (approx. 2.52 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Fireplace heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Built-in features; Decorative lighting; Natural woodwork; Other
• Laundry & utility: Utility room; Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $504 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 4.6% in West Tawakoni — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,337 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Wills Point ISD (town): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #556 of 826 in TX (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wills Point Pri (577 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 284 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Van Zandt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Van Zandt County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.75%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,000
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
401 Private Road 7837	0.00mi	2/2.0	924 (0%)	0mo	$95,000	$103	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $16,713
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $55,855
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75169

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Active inventory: 284
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,396 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $725/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $504

Break-even live

Break-even rent $757

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 789-char remark
2. 2026-04-27
   listed $95,000 Active 789-char remark
3. 2020-09-18
   soldstatus
4. 1982-03-15
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $725 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,738 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,014/yr (+$84/mo · 140.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,747
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$725
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,340
• − Management: −$1,340
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $4,783
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,148
• After-tax cash flow: $4,904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wills Point ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845950
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,534
• Composite: 28.58/100
• National rank: #6721
• State rank: #556 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Tawakoni

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1337
• US rank: #23022

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,744

Population outlook (Van Zandt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,634 people
• By 2030: 56,479 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 57,672 · +3.7%
• By 2050: 57,913 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 57,544 · +3.4%
• By 2100: 52,659 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Zandt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+74.8) · D 12.3% · R 87.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -55.1pp · 2024: -74.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+74.8 2020: R+72.1 2016: R+72.1 2012: R+66.6 2008: R+55.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.68%
• Current HPI: 250.2271
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2026-05-05 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $95,000 NTREIS
• 2020-09-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1982-03-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $725 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.