3424 E Garrison Ln · Mead, WA 99021

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1999 $116/sqft · at area comps Est $126k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recently updated manufactured home on the edge of Shenandoah Forrest Park! Situated nicely with great territorial views from the deck/yard facing South. Walk in the door to the cozy living room with high ceilings, open to a recently updated island kitchen with stainless steel appliances and nicely painted cabinets. Primary bedroom with attached bath on opposite side of home from the two guest bedrooms. Two storage sheds, really nice fencing and off-street parking spaces.

Key facts

• Off street parking
• Island kitchen
• Two storage sheds

Tags

• UPDATED MANUFACTURED HOME
• GREAT TERRITORIAL VIEWS
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS
• OFF STREET PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $926 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 2.3% in Mead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#388 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Mead School District (suburban): math 63% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #23 of 291 in WA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,608 units permitted in Spokane County in 2024 (1,792 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Spokane County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.74%
• DSCR: 2.41
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,509
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -0.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14824 N Surrey Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,080 (0%)	13mo	$120,000	$111	84
14715 N Surrey Ln	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (-9%)	10mo	$114,000	$116	69
3320 E Valley Forge Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+9%)	12mo	$125,000	$106	69
14719 N Farragut Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,215 (+12%)	4mo	$150,000	$123	64
15010 N Shenandoah Forest Ln	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (-9%)	7mo	$75,000	$77	63
14711 N Shenandoah Forest Ln	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-14%)	9mo	$106,200	$115	61
14825 N Dixie Ln	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (+14%)	9mo	$145,000	$118	59
3305 E Bull Run Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+14%)	16mo	$128,000	$104	58
3928 E Lane Park #14 Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	924 (-14%)	11mo	$97,900	$106	48
14615 N Cuba St	0.56mi	3/1.0	924 (-14%)	2mo	$185,000	$200	44
4202 E Lane Park Rd #2	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (-9%)	8mo	$65,000	$66	42
4202 E Lane Park Rd #20	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	947 (-12%)	21mo	$120,000	$127	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $38,682
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.13×
• Total profit: $109,511
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99021

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $782/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $926

Break-even live

Break-even rent $978

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2228 E Winger Rd Spokane, WA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,150	$1.43	43d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $125,000 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 57 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 56 DOM
17. 2026-04-22
    price $129,900 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    Recently updated manufactured home on the edge of Shenandoah Forrest Park! Situated nicely with great territorial views from the deck/yard facing South. Walk in the door to the cozy living room with high ceilings, open to a recently updated island kitchen with stainless steel appliances and nicely painted cabinets. Primary bedroom with attached bath on opposite side of home from the two guest bedrooms. Two storage sheds, really nice fencing and off-street parking spaces.

18. 2026-04-04
    listed $139,500 Active 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    Recently updated manufactured home on the edge of Shenandoah Forrest Park! Situated nicely with great territorial views from the deck/yard facing South. Walk in the door to the cozy living room with high ceilings, open to a recently updated island kitchen with stainless steel appliances and nicely painted cabinets. Primary bedroom with attached bath on opposite side of home from the two guest bedrooms. Two storage sheds, really nice fencing and off-street parking spaces.

19. 2011-10-04
    historical
20. 2011-07-15
    listed $41,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $782 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,225 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$443/yr (+$37/mo · 56.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$782
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,064
• − Management: −$2,064
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $9,627
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,310
• After-tax cash flow: $8,799/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mead School District
• NCES district ID: 5304920
• Math proficiency: 63% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,176
• Composite: 59.93/100
• National rank: #1811
• State rank: #23 of 291 in WA

Livability — Mead

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #388
• US rank: #15310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime C Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mead, WA
• Population (ZIP): 9,226

Population outlook (Spokane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 531,314 people
• By 2030: 549,278 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 577,822 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 598,188 · +12.6%
• By 2075: 630,744 · +18.7%
• By 2100: 622,360 · +17.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 5% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Spokane

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.0% · R 51.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.8pp toward R · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -5.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.0 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+8.3 2012: R+6.3 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.33%
• Current HPI: 354.3985
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+213.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $129,900 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Listed $139,500 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-10-04 Listing Removed — SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-15 Listed $41,500 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $782 · -7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.