571 Birchwood Dr · Petaluma, CA 94954

$42,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 148 Days on market

Built 1967 ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Exceptional value in Petaluma! Priced to reflect deferred maintenance and offered strictly as-is, this home presents an opportunity for buyers with vision to update and personalize. Space rent is $1,866 upon transfer. Located in The Cottages of Petaluma, one of the area's most desirable 55+ communities, this light-filled home sits on the corner of a peaceful cul-de-sac toward the back of the park, with views toward the Sonoma Hills and a quiet, private feel. Ideal for those seeking low-maintenance living, a downsizing opportunity, or housing for a loved one wanting independence within a welcoming community setting. The home offers comfortable immediate livability with the flexibility to upd

Key facts

• Renovated bathrooms
• Corner cul-de-sac
• Parking

Tags

• CORNER CUL-DE-SAC
• OVERSIZED DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• RENOVATED BATHROOMS
• DECORATIVE FIREPLACES
• LARGE SHEDS WITH ELECTRICITY
• LOW MAINTENANCE GARDENS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land/space rent applies
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Home is on leased land (land lease required)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Guest parking available; Total parking for 1 vehicle
• Security: Smoke detector and carbon monoxide detector; Fire extinguisher; Double-strapped water heater
• Utilities: Cable connected; Gas plumbed; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Public sewer; 220V in kitchen
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a park; Double-wide model; Property faces northeast; Original condition
• Construction: Metal roof; Manufactured home make: Newell Manor
• Exterior features: Enclosed deck; Porch with steps; Uncovered patio; Backyard with landscaping and garden; Front yard; Auto sprinkler (front and rear); Corner lot on a cul-de-sac; Fenced yard; Shed(s) on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas oven and built-in gas range; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Freestanding refrigerator; Island and breakfast area; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tile finishes and shower stalls
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Evaporative cooler; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Grab bars for accessibility; Two decorative living room fireplaces; Smoke detector and carbon monoxide detector; Fire extinguisher; Double-strapped water heater; Green energy features including improved insulation, efficient windows, thermostat controls, cooling and water heater considerations; Screened room; Dining area that opens to living space; Breakfast nook
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included inside the home; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $42k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $42k).
• Recommended offer: $37k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 65.3% vs local median 2.3% in Petaluma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#33 in CA, #1,161 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Petaluma Joint Union High (suburban): math 44% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #112 of 517 in CA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 61 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $290 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $36,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 65.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 210.70%
• DSCR: 10.37
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
71 Candlewood Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,188 (-1%)	8mo	$212,000	$178	91
576 Birchwood Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,188 (-1%)	9mo	$215,000	$181	90
109 Oakwood Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,200 (0%)	10mo	$50,000	$42	88
75 Candlewood Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-4%)	2mo	$180,000	$156	86
48 Oakwood Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,220 (+2%)	12mo	$170,000	$139	83
529 Rosewood Cir	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,088 (-9%)	6mo	$165,000	$152	73
20 Oakwood Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (-8%)	6mo	$193,000	$175	69
1548 Royal Oaks Dr	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,295 (+8%)	8mo	$245,000	$189	66
63 Oakwood Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (-13%)	6mo	$159,000	$153	65
717 N Mcdowell Blvd #111	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,064 (-11%)	4mo	$150,000	$141	65
118 Candlewood Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,325 (+10%)	11mo	$150,000	$113	64
594 Sonoma Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (+14%)	8mo	$235,000	$172	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.01×
• Total profit: $117,746
• Equity at exit: $6,262

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 21.80×
• Total profit: $244,665
• Equity at exit: $3,631

Cash invested: $11,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94954

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,981 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$220
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$52 /mo · $630/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$626
• Net cashflow: $2,065

Break-even live

Break-even rent $367

Max offer price $42,000

Occupancy floor 26%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,500
• Closing costs: $1,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1453 Capri Ave Petaluma, CA	3.0	2.0	1368	$3,200	$2.34	14d	1	0.27mi
495 N McDowell Blvd Petaluma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1028	$3,432	$3.34	2d	3	0.36mi
240 Park Place Dr Petaluma, CA	2.0	1.0	872	$2,450	$2.81	14d	1	0.58mi
1900 Sestri Ln Petaluma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	716	$2,998	$4.19	2d	6	0.73mi
333 N McDowell Blvd Petaluma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	672	$2,141	$3.18	2d	7	0.74mi
132 Maria Dr Petaluma, CA	3.0	2.0	1056	$2,895	$2.74	14d	1	0.92mi
1412 Mauro Pietro Dr #201 Petaluma, CA	3.0	2.0	1165	$2,950	$2.53	14d	1	0.99mi
1412 Mauro Pietro Dr #206 Petaluma, CA	2.0	2.0	943	$2,995	$3.18	14d	1	0.99mi
907 Mustang Ct Petaluma, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,550	$3.64	14d	1	1.12mi
55 Maria Dr Petaluma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	957	$3,548	$3.71	13d	6	1.23mi
142 Cherry St Petaluma, CA	2.0	1.0	874	$2,450	$2.80	14d	1	1.24mi
200 Greenbriar Cir Petaluma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	794	$3,266	$4.11	14d	19	1.32mi
350 N Water St Petaluma, CA	2.0	1.0–2.5	860	$3,921	$4.56	2d	15	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $42,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $42,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $42,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $42,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $42,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $42,000 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $42,000 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $42,000 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $42,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $42,000 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $42,000 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $42,000 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $42,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    pricestatusdays on market $42,000 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Contingent (Show) 130 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Contingent (Show) 129 DOM
17. 2026-05-23
    historical Contingent (Show)
18. 2026-04-17
    price $65,000
19. 2026-01-20
    listed $80,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 20 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,353
• − Property taxes: −$630
• − Insurance: −$210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,862
• − Management: −$2,862
• − Depreciation: −$1,222
• Taxable income: $25,635
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,152
• After-tax cash flow: $18,625/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Petaluma Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0630250
• Math proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $78,473
• Composite: 47.11/100
• National rank: #2329
• State rank: #112 of 517 in CA

Livability — Petaluma

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #1161

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Petaluma, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 71,359
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,574
• Household income: $113,527
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1421.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 16% Asian 4% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -813.92%
• Current HPI: 245.4729
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.61%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-18.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $65,000 BAREIS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $80,000 BAREIS