3606 Hilltop Rd · Oak Trail Shores, TX 76048

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,191 sqft · Land · 438 Days on market

Built 2025 4,792 sqft lot $134/sqft · 25% below area Est $211k · 25% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience modern living in this brand new Jessup 3 bed, 2 bath mobile home, located in a desirable Granbury neighborhood. This home, complete with its own lot, features top-of-the-line, energy-efficient design, stainless steel appliances, and an abundance of natural light. Enjoy spacious bedrooms, a luxurious master bath, and the added benefit of a neighborhood with a boat ramp and parks, perfect for family enjoyment. This one won't last long! Book your showing today! Owner Financing Available!

Key facts

• Natural light
• Parks
• Boat ramp

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT DESIGN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NATURAL LIGHT
• BOAT RAMP
• PARKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.9% in Oak Trail Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,187 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 438 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 438 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.53%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,221
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -24.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-11,268
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $101
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,776 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,423

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $389	-5% $334	+0% $279	+5% $224	+10% $169
Rent	-10% $139	-5% $209	+0% $279	+5% $349	+10% $420
Rate	-1.0pp $359	-0.5pp $320	base $279	+0.5pp $238	+1.0pp $196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3225 Evergreen Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,425	$1.56	2d	1	0.43mi
4321 Terri Lee Ln Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1387	$2,075	$1.50	2d	1	0.52mi
5418 Lake View Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,300	$1.01	44d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 438 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 437 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 436 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 435 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 433 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 429 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 428 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 427 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $159,000 Active 424 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 423 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 422 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 421 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 420 DOM
14. 2025-08-19
    price $159,000 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    Experience modern living in this brand new Jessup 3 bed, 2 bath mobile home, located in a desirable Granbury neighborhood. This home, complete with its own lot, features top-of-the-line, energy-efficient design, stainless steel appliances, and an abundance of natural light. Enjoy spacious bedrooms, a luxurious master bath, and the added benefit of a neighborhood with a boat ramp and parks, perfect for family enjoyment. This one won't last long! Book your showing today! Owner Financing Available!

15. 2025-04-06
    listed $169,000 Active 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    Experience modern living in this brand new Jessup 3 bed, 2 bath mobile home, located in a desirable Granbury neighborhood. This home, complete with its own lot, features top-of-the-line, energy-efficient design, stainless steel appliances, and an abundance of natural light. Enjoy spacious bedrooms, a luxurious master bath, and the added benefit of a neighborhood with a boat ramp and parks, perfect for family enjoyment. This one won't last long! Book your showing today! Owner Financing Available!

16. 2022-08-15
    soldstatus
17. 1986-10-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,313
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,705
• − Management: −$1,705
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $891
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$214
• After-tax cash flow: $3,138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Trail Shores

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1187
• US rank: #20758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Trail Shores, TX
• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $159,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-06 Listed $169,000 NTREIS
• 2022-08-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1986-10-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+17.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $121 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.