Mercer II Plan · Avon Lake, OH 44012

$485,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,508 sqft · SingleFamily · 547 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Mercer II stands out for its spacious owner's suite complete with a private retreat space. The kitchen island with breakfast bar is perfect for quick casual meals and offers additional seating for entertaining guests. Enhance the secondary bathroom with an additional sink, offering added convenience for kids.

Key facts

• Kitchen island
• Owner's suite
• Breakfast bar

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• PRIVATE RETREAT SPACE
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• BREAKFAST BAR
• SECONDARY BATHROOM
• ADDITIONAL SINK

🏗️ New construction. The $485,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $593,458.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $486k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $380k (21.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $332k (31.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $332k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#52 in OH, #736 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Avon Lake City (suburban): math 78% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #48 of 656 in OH (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,098 units permitted in Lorain County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 547 days — a 12% lower offer ($428k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $332,289 (31.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 547 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.66%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $593,458
• List price: $485,990
• Delta: -18.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
604 Bar Hbr	0.20mi	3/2.5	2,453 (-2%)	4mo	$607,000	$247	84
588 S Port Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,662 (+6%)	3mo	$740,000	$278	70
396 Creekside Dr	0.43mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,442 (-3%)	4mo	$542,500	$222	68
611 Arborside Ln	0.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,671 (+6%)	3mo	$470,000	$176	64
643 Brownstone Cir	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,593 (+3%)	3mo	$505,000	$195	58
598 Chancellor Cir	0.46mi	3/3.0	2,226 (-11%)	1mo	$560,000	$252	57
648 Landerwood Ln	0.68mi	3/2.5	2,355 (-6%)	2mo	$455,000	$193	57
31766 Walker Rd	0.52mi	3/2.5	2,220 (-12%)	0mo	$558,000	$251	56
654 Brownstone Cir	0.61mi	3/2.5	2,729 (+9%)	2mo	$540,000	$198	55
32068 Dorchester Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,204 (-12%)	3mo	$430,000	$195	55
32041 Kossuth Dr	0.40mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,152 (-14%)	3mo	$620,000	$288	46
718 Wedgewood Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,192 (-13%)	1mo	$508,000	$232	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-190,134
• Equity at exit: $88,486

10-year hold

• IRR: -48.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.72×
• Total profit: $-286,425
• Equity at exit: $51,311

Cash invested: $166,168 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44012

• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,323 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,112
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$742 /mo · $8,902/yr
• Insurance: −$247
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$698
• Net cashflow: $-1,476

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,191

Max offer price $379,854

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,066	-5% $-1,271	+0% $-1,476	+5% $-1,681	+10% $-1,886
Rent	-10% $-1,739	-5% $-1,607	+0% $-1,476	+5% $-1,345	+10% $-1,214
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,177	-0.5pp $-1,325	base $-1,476	+0.5pp $-1,630	+1.0pp $-1,786

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $148,364
• Closing costs: $17,804
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
384 Bradley Rd Bay Village, OH	3.0	2.5	2000	$4,100	$2.05	8d	1	1.29mi
384 Bradley Rd Bay Village, OH	3.0	3.0	2000	$4,100	$2.05	4d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $485,990 Active 547 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $485,990 Active 544 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $485,990 Active 543 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $485,990 Active 542 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $485,990 Active 541 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $485,990 Active 539 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $485,990 Active 538 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $485,990 Active 535 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $485,990 Active 534 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $485,990 Active 533 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $485,990 Active 530 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $485,990 Active 529 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $485,990 Active 528 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $485,990 Active 527 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $485,990 Active 526 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    price $485,990 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    The Mercer II stands out for its spacious owner's suite complete with a private retreat space. The kitchen island with breakfast bar is perfect for quick casual meals and offers additional seating for entertaining guests. Enhance the secondary bathroom with an additional sink, offering added convenience for kids.

17. 2025-11-05
    price $480,990 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    The Mercer II stands out for its spacious owner's suite complete with a private retreat space. The kitchen island with breakfast bar is perfect for quick casual meals and offers additional seating for entertaining guests. Enhance the secondary bathroom with an additional sink, offering added convenience for kids.

18. 2025-10-04
    price $477,990 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    The Mercer II stands out for its spacious owner's suite complete with a private retreat space. The kitchen island with breakfast bar is perfect for quick casual meals and offers additional seating for entertaining guests. Enhance the secondary bathroom with an additional sink, offering added convenience for kids.

19. 2025-09-04
    price $474,990 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    The Mercer II stands out for its spacious owner's suite complete with a private retreat space. The kitchen island with breakfast bar is perfect for quick casual meals and offers additional seating for entertaining guests. Enhance the secondary bathroom with an additional sink, offering added convenience for kids.

20. 2025-05-03
    price $472,990 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    The Mercer II stands out for its spacious owner's suite complete with a private retreat space. The kitchen island with breakfast bar is perfect for quick casual meals and offers additional seating for entertaining guests. Enhance the secondary bathroom with an additional sink, offering added convenience for kids.

21. 2025-04-14
    price $470,990 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    The Mercer II stands out for its spacious owner's suite complete with a private retreat space. The kitchen island with breakfast bar is perfect for quick casual meals and offers additional seating for entertaining guests. Enhance the secondary bathroom with an additional sink, offering added convenience for kids.

22. 2024-12-22
    listed $460,990 Active 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    The Mercer II stands out for its spacious owner's suite complete with a private retreat space. The kitchen island with breakfast bar is perfect for quick casual meals and offers additional seating for entertaining guests. Enhance the secondary bathroom with an additional sink, offering added convenience for kids.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,243
• − Property taxes: −$8,902
• − Insurance: −$2,967
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,190
• − Management: −$3,190
• − Depreciation: −$17,264
• Taxable loss: −$28,882
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,932
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Avon Lake City
• NCES district ID: 3904812
• Math proficiency: 78% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,608
• Composite: 69.66/100
• National rank: #296
• State rank: #48 of 656 in OH

Livability — Avon Lake

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #736

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Avon Lake, OH
• County: Lorain County · 219,437 people
• City population: 25,752
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• Population (ZIP): 25,752
• Household income: $115,567
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 290.0

Population outlook (Lorain County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,924 people
• By 2030: 317,546 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 317,962 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 312,872 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 301,806 · -4.2%
• By 2100: 278,271 · -11.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lorain

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.7) · D 46.7% · R 52.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.9pp · 2024: -5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.7 2020: R+2.5 2016: R+0.3 2012: D+14.4 2008: D+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.16%
• Current HPI: 207.1177
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+5.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $485,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $480,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-04 Price Changed $477,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $474,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-03 Price Changed $472,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-14 Price Changed $470,990 Zillow
• 2024-12-22 Listed $460,990 Zillow