456 Strayer St · Johnstown, PA 15906

$90,000

6 bd · 3.0 ba · — sqft · MultiFamily · 24 Days on market

Built 1920

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Side by side duplex with 3 bedrooms per unit. One has 1.5 baths. The second has 1 bath. Units are being remodeled. New paint. New carpet in one unit. All brick gazebo in back

Key facts

• Replaced windows
• Big front porch
• Oak cabinet kitchens

Tags

• BACKYARD BRICK GAZEBO
• BIG FRONT PORCH
• REPLACED WINDOWS
• OAK CABINET KITCHENS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $638 ($8k/yr) — positive. Per door: $319/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#363 in PA, #3,168 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Greater Johnstown SD (urban): math 9% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #509 of 539 in PA (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $90k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,650 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.39%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109-111 Stone St	0.36mi	6/3.0	—	22mo	$55,000	—	52
168-168.5 Garfield St	0.56mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,072	3mo	$24,000	$12	50
113 Boyer St	0.66mi	6/3.0	2,736	10mo	$55,000	$20	48
315 Chandler Ave	0.40mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,046	16mo	$60,000	$29	47
226 Strayer St	0.42mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,016	16mo	$152,000	$75	46
223-225 Fairfield Ave	0.72mi	6/2.0	2,500	12mo	$85,900	$34	40
188 - 190 Fairfield Ave	0.70mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,432	11mo	$67,000	$28	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $26,081
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.98×
• Total profit: $75,132
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15906

• Home prices YoY: -4.0%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,589 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,292/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $638

Break-even live

Break-even rent $781

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $689	-5% $664	+0% $638	+5% $613	+10% $587
Rent	-10% $513	-5% $575	+0% $638	+5% $701	+10% $764
Rate	-1.0pp $683	-0.5pp $661	base $638	+0.5pp $615	+1.0pp $591

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1.5	$1,588
Total (2 units)			$1,589

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
320 Chandler Ave Johnstown, PA	5.0	2.5	4500	$1,500	$0.33	45d	1	0.40mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $90,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $90,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $90,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $90,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $100,000 Active 174-char remark

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    Side by side duplex with 3 bedrooms per unit. One has 1.5 baths. The second has 1 bath. Units are being remodeled. New paint. New carpet in one unit. All brick gazebo in back

17. 2025-12-09
    soldstatus $30,000
18. 2025-12-08
    soldstatus $30,000 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    Brick & vinyl sided double home with separate utilities in Greater Johnstown schools. The 456 side has a LR, eat-in kitchen, DR, 3 bedrooms, a full bathroom, walk-up attic & a basement. The 458 side has a LR, eat-in kitchen, DR, powder room, 1st flr. laundry room, has central air on the 2nd floor, 3 bedrooms, a full bathroom, walk-up attic & a basement. Covered front porch & a large covered patio in back yard. Sewers - 2024, 100 amp breakers on each side, gas hot water heat.

19. 2025-11-17
    listed $49,900 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    Brick & vinyl sided double home with separate utilities in Greater Johnstown schools. The 456 side has a LR, eat-in kitchen, DR, 3 bedrooms, a full bathroom, walk-up attic & a basement. The 458 side has a LR, eat-in kitchen, DR, powder room, 1st flr. laundry room, has central air on the 2nd floor, 3 bedrooms, a full bathroom, walk-up attic & a basement. Covered front porch & a large covered patio in back yard. Sewers - 2024, 100 amp breakers on each side, gas hot water heat.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,292 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,357 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$65/yr (+$5/mo · 5.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥96°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,068
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,292
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,525
• − Management: −$1,525
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $6,615
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,588
• After-tax cash flow: $6,070/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greater Johnstown SD
• NCES district ID: 4210950
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,890
• Composite: 13.25/100
• National rank: #9550
• State rank: #509 of 539 in PA

Livability — Johnstown

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #3168

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnstown, PA
• City population: 30,791
• Population (ZIP): 9,654

Population outlook (Cambria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,754 people
• By 2030: 115,827 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 101,309 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 88,379 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 65,237 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 46,909 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 11% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Polish 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cambria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.7pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+37.8 2012: R+17.8 2008: D+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.26%
• Current HPI: 77.6797
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+80.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $90,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $100,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2025-12-08 Sold (MLS) $30,000 CSMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $49,900 CSMLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,292 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.