12411 Hopscotch Ave E · Palmetto, FL 34221

$337,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,708 sqft · SingleFamily · 129 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 7,140 sqft lot 2-car garage $71/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Receive up to $20,000 towards closing costs, up to $5,000 towards options and special interest rates with the use of our preferred lender - Now through Wednesday, September 30th. MOVE IN READY! Oakfield Lakes consists of single-family homes all designed to meet the needs of today’s modern family. At the heart of Oakfield Lakes is The Grove, our central community hub that's an inviting space for socializing, relaxing and playing, featuring dedicated spaces for cooking, food trucks and year-round get-togethers. Available for Oakfield Lakes residents will be a resort-style pool, splash pad, playground and dog park for our 4-legged family members.

Key facts

• 7,140 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

🏗️ New construction. The $337,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $369,703.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $337k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-223 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $304k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $297k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.0% in Palmetto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#346 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1580 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,042/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($297k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $296,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.59%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $369,703
• List price: $337,000
• Delta: -8.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12427 Hopscotch Ave	0.04mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,828 (+7%)	2mo	$360,000	$197	80
12432 Hopscotch Ave	0.03mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,828 (+7%)	2mo	$359,000	$196	80
13106 Old Canoe Way	0.38mi	5/2.0	1,739 (+2%)	1mo	$301,000	$173	78
10404 Curving Creek Loop	0.41mi	5/2.0	1,739 (+2%)	2mo	$309,000	$178	76
12317 Hopscotch Ave	0.03mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,498 (-12%)	3mo	$330,000	$220	71
10964 Gentle Current Way	0.21mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,498 (-12%)	3mo	$355,000	$237	62
10838 Sapphire Breeze Cv	0.36mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,850 (+8%)	3mo	$377,890	$204	62
13114 Old Canoe Way	0.40mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-9%)	2mo	$286,000	$183	60
13121 Old Canoe Way	0.42mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-9%)	2mo	$307,000	$197	59
10404 Abundance Grove Way	0.71mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (+8%)	1mo	$370,000	$201	48
10866 Curving Creek Loop	0.65mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+11%)	1mo	$339,990	$179	45
10904 Curving Creek Loop	0.62mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,914 (+12%)	3mo	$339,990	$178	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-82,943
• Equity at exit: $55,124

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-124,609
• Equity at exit: $31,965

Cash invested: $103,517 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 44 active · 28 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.1 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $347,995 ($202/sqft)
• Median days on market: 181 d
• This list price: 36% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1580
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,042 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,939
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$462 /mo · $5,546/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$639
• Net cashflow: $-223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,324

Max offer price $337,415

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $32	-5% $-95	+0% $-223	+5% $-351	+10% $-479
Rent	-10% $-463	-5% $-343	+0% $-223	+5% $-103	+10% $17
Rate	-1.0pp $-37	-0.5pp $-129	base $-223	+0.5pp $-319	+1.0pp $-416

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,426
• Closing costs: $11,091
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	99d	1	0.39mi
11752 Moonsail Dr Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$2,500	$1.58	64d	1	1.19mi
11875 Armada Way Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2140	$3,150	$1.47	10d	1	1.30mi
10924 Rabbit Grove Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,800	$1.53	10d	1	1.45mi
11612 Armada Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	2112	$3,400	$1.61	116d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty availableDirections provided from I-75 (exit 229 toward Parrish)Living area reported as 1,708 sq ft (appraiser); total building area 2,134 sq ft
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,754Total annual fees listed: $860Total monthly fees listed: $71.67Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Access Management)Monthly HOA approximately $71.67Quarterly association fee $215HOA includes pool and clubhouse; maintenance providedAssociation approval requiredCommunity features include clubhouse, deed restrictions, reclaimed water irrigation, and poolPets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayAttached garage with garage door opener2-car garage
• Security: Fire alarm, fire sprinkler system, and smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableSewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne storyUnder construction (projected completion: 2026-08-21)Faces eastResidential planned development zoning (PD-R)New construction model: DUNDEE by D.R. Horton
• Construction: Block and concrete constructionShingle roofBuilt by D.R. HortonSlab foundationBuilder license CBC039052
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porchHurricane shuttersExterior lightingSliding doorsLandscaped yardSidewalksPaved driveway and roadsIrrigation system

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGarbage disposalMicrowaveRangeRefrigeratorExhaust fanElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetSlab foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor planThermostatWalk-in closetsWindow treatmentsBlindsDouble-pane windowsFire alarm, fire sprinkler system, and smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry roomLaundry closetWasherDryer

HOA detail $71/mo · $852/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   pricedays on market $337,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $339,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $339,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $339,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $339,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $339,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   pricedays on market $339,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $340,000 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $340,000 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $340,000 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $340,000 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $340,000 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $340,000 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $342,000 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $342,000 Active 109 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    remarks 651-char remark
17. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $342,000 Active 108 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $344,000 Active 105 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $344,000 Active 104 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $344,000 Active 103 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $344,000 Active 102 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $344,000 Active 101 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    pricedays on market $344,000 Active 100 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $345,000 Active 99 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $345,000 Active 98 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $345,000 Active 97 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $345,000 Active 96 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $345,000 Active 95 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    price $345,000 Active 94 DOM
30. 2026-08-20
    days on market $347,000 Active 94 DOM
31. 2026-08-19
    days on market $347,000 Active 93 DOM
32. 2026-08-18
    days on market $347,000 Active 92 DOM
33. 2026-08-17
    days on market $347,000 Active 91 DOM
34. 2026-08-16
    days on market $347,000 Active 90 DOM
35. 2026-08-15
    days on market $347,000 Active 89 DOM
36. 2026-08-14
    days on market $347,000 Active 88 DOM
37. 2026-08-13
    days on market $347,000 Active 87 DOM
38. 2026-08-12
    days on market $347,000 Active 86 DOM
39. 2026-08-12
    price $347,000 Active 85 DOM
40. 2026-08-11
    days on market $349,000 Active 85 DOM
41. 2026-08-10
    days on market $349,000 Active 84 DOM
42. 2026-08-09
    days on market $349,000 Active 83 DOM
43. 2026-08-08
    days on market $349,000 Active 82 DOM
44. 2026-08-07
    days on market $349,000 Active 81 DOM
45. 2026-08-06
    days on market $349,000 Active 80 DOM
46. 2026-08-05
    pricedays on market $349,000 Active 79 DOM
47. 2026-08-04
    days on market $352,000 Active 78 DOM
48. 2026-08-03
    days on market $352,000 Active 77 DOM
49. 2026-07-31
    days on market $352,000 Active 74 DOM
50. 2026-07-30
    pricedays on market $352,000 Active 72 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,498
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,709
• − Property taxes: −$5,546
• − Insurance: −$1,849
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,920
• − Management: −$2,920
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$10,755
• Taxable loss: −$9,052
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,172
• After-tax cash flow: $-505/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the appearance and value of the home. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and value, especially for tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 58/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Barbara A Harvey Elementary School B+ FL #473/2,144 Nat'l #4,825/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Parrish Community High School D+ FL #160/667 Nat'l #5,016/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Palmetto

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #5695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 56,208
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

---

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty availableDirections provided from I-75 (exit 229 toward Parrish)Living area reported as 1,708 sq ft (appraiser); total building area 2,134 sq ft
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,754Total annual fees listed: $860Total monthly fees listed: $71.67Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Access Management)Monthly HOA approximately $71.67Quarterly association fee $215HOA includes pool and clubhouse; maintenance providedAssociation approval requiredCommunity features include clubhouse, deed restrictions, reclaimed water irrigation, and poolPets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayAttached garage with garage door opener2-car garage
• Security: Fire alarm, fire sprinkler system, and smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableSewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne storyUnder construction (projected completion: 2026-08-21)Faces eastResidential planned development zoning (PD-R)New construction model: DUNDEE by D.R. Horton
• Construction: Block and concrete constructionShingle roofBuilt by D.R. HortonSlab foundationBuilder license CBC039052
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porchHurricane shuttersExterior lightingSliding doorsLandscaped yardSidewalksPaved driveway and roadsIrrigation system

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGarbage disposalMicrowaveRangeRefrigeratorExhaust fanElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetSlab foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor planThermostatWalk-in closetsWindow treatmentsBlindsDouble-pane windowsFire alarm, fire sprinkler system, and smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry roomLaundry closetWasherDryer

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-25 Price Changed $361,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-24 Price Changed $369,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $372,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $374,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Listed $376,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid