12411 Hopscotch Ave E · Ruskin, FL 34221

$372,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,708 sqft · SingleFamily · 31 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 7,140 sqft lot $71/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Receive ALL CLOSING COSTS PAID, up to $10k Flex Cash & special interest rates with the use of our preferred lender - Now through June 30th. Oakfield Lakes consists of single-family homes all designed to meet the needs of today’s modern family. At the heart of Oakfield Lakes is The Grove, our central community hub that's an inviting space for socializing, relaxing and playing, featuring dedicated spaces for cooking, food trucks and year-round get-togethers. Available for Oakfield Lakes residents will be a resort-style pool, splash pad, playground and dog park for our 4-legged family members.

Key facts

• 7,140 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty available; Directions provided from I-75 (exit 229 toward Parrish); Living area reported as 1,708 sq ft (appraiser); total building area 2,134 sq ft
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,754; Total annual fees listed: $860; Total monthly fees listed: $71.67; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Access Management); Monthly HOA approximately $71.67; Quarterly association fee $215; HOA includes pool and clubhouse; maintenance provided; Association approval required; Community features include clubhouse, deed restrictions, reclaimed water irrigation, and pool; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage with garage door opener; 2-car garage
• Security: Fire alarm, fire sprinkler system, and smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Under construction (projected completion: 2026-08-21); Faces east; Residential planned development zoning (PD-R); New construction model: DUNDEE by D.R. Horton
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Shingle roof; Built by D.R. Horton; Slab foundation; Builder license CBC039052
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Hurricane shutters; Exterior lighting; Sliding doors; Landscaped yard; Sidewalks; Paved driveway and roads; Irrigation system

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Slab foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Blinds; Double-pane windows; Fire alarm, fire sprinkler system, and smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Laundry closet; Washer; Dryer

🏗️ New construction. The $372,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $339,892.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $372k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $133 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $359k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $323k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $323k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,231/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 1193% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($361k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $323,137 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.68%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $339,892
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10640 Hidden Banks Gln	0.14mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,665 (-2%)	4mo	$327,990	$197	81
10610 Gentle Current Way	0.09mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,828 (+7%)	3mo	$344,000	$188	77
12420 Hopscotch Ave	0.04mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,498 (-12%)	1mo	$330,000	$220	72
10972 Gentle Current Way	0.22mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,828 (+7%)	2mo	$344,890	$189	72
12431 Hopscotch Ave	0.05mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,498 (-12%)	2mo	$312,000	$208	70
10724 Gentle Current Way	0.11mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,498 (-12%)	1mo	$322,000	$215	69
10935 Rabbit Grove Trl	0.36mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,828 (+7%)	2mo	$377,000	$206	65
12816 Blue Reflection Ave	0.34mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,850 (+8%)	2mo	$378,190	$204	64
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv	0.37mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,850 (+8%)	1mo	$361,990	$196	63
10416 Abundance Grove Way	0.70mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (+8%)	2mo	$345,000	$188	48
10833 Paddling Trace Run	0.60mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,914 (+12%)	1mo	$346,990	$181	46
10405 Abundance Grove Way	0.74mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (+8%)	4mo	$366,000	$199	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-55,992
• Equity at exit: $50,679

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-74,083
• Equity at exit: $29,388

Cash invested: $95,170 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,231 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$425 /mo · $5,098/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$679
• Net cashflow: $133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,063

Max offer price $339,892

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $368	-5% $250	+0% $133	+5% $15	+10% $-102
Rent	-10% $-122	-5% $5	+0% $133	+5% $261	+10% $388
Rate	-1.0pp $304	-0.5pp $219	base $133	+0.5pp $45	+1.0pp $-45

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,973
• Closing costs: $10,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	4d	1	0.39mi
11612 Armada Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	2112	$3,400	$1.61	20d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $372,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 619-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $372,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $372,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $372,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $372,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $372,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $374,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $374,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $374,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $374,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $376,990 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $376,990 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $376,990 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $376,990 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $376,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,039
• − Property taxes: −$5,098
• − Insurance: −$1,699
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,102
• − Management: −$3,102
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$9,888
• Taxable loss: −$4,005
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$961
• After-tax cash flow: $2,555/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the appearance and value of the home.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and value, especially for tech-savvy buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the appearance and value of the home. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and value, especially for tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $376,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid