3120 Winecup Rd · Celina, TX 75009

$313,810

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · Other public records · 24 Days on market

Built 2026 4,400 sqft lot $227/sqft · 12% below area Est $339k · 7% under $92/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction - Ready Now! Built by Taylor Morrison, America's Most Trusted Homebuilder. Welcome to The Eller at 3120 Winecup Road in North Sky. The Eller is a thoughtfully designed single-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a gourmet kitchen that opens to a casual dining area—perfect for everyday meals or special gatherings. The spacious great room offers the ideal setting for relaxing or entertaining, blending comfort and style seamlessly. Celina, TX, is celebrated for its charming small-town atmosphere and vibrant community spirit. From lively downtown events to the highly rated Celina Independent School District, it’s a wonderful place to put down roots. North Sk

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Covered patio
• Great room

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• SHADED CABANAS
• COVERED PATIO
• SLIDE IN TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision amenities include clubhouse, community sprinkler, curbs, greenbelt, jogging/bike path, park, perimeter fencing, playground, and sidewalks
• Financial info: Financing accepted: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA managed by VCM Texas; HOA covers full use of facilities, grounds maintenance, and management fees; Annual HOA fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces; Driveway; Garage door opener; Garage faces rear
• Security: Prewired security; Burglar alarm; Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors; Fire alarm
• Utilities: Community mailbox; Sidewalks; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story; Residential property; New construction (completed in 2026)
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Covered patios/porches; Gutters; Exterior lighting; Private yard; Wood fencing; Sprinkler system; Landscaped; Level, interior lot; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas range; Electric oven; Disposal; Plumbed for gas in kitchen; Pantry; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main/entry level); Primary bedroom on the main/entry level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main/entry level)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Natural gas heating; Tankless water heater; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Kitchen island; Pantry; Double vanity; Smart home system; Walk-in closets; One living area; One dining area; 9 total rooms; Great room
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $314k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-127 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.8% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 2927 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($168k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $231,087 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.73%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $338,990
• List price: $313,810
• Delta: -7.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-65,798
• Equity at exit: $46,790

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-94,266
• Equity at exit: $27,133

Cash invested: $87,867 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 2927
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,311 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,646
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,008/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,471

Max offer price $291,408

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $51	-5% $-38	+0% $-127	+5% $-216	+10% $-304
Rent	-10% $-309	-5% $-218	+0% $-127	+5% $-36	+10% $56
Rate	-1.0pp $31	-0.5pp $-47	base $-127	+0.5pp $-208	+1.0pp $-291

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,452
• Closing costs: $9,414
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
121 Tornillo Dr Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1693	$2,449	$1.45	45d	1	0.19mi
109 Tornillo Dr Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1518	$2,300	$1.52	26d	1	0.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $92 · $1,104/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 1140-char remark
2. 2026-04-21
   listed $313,810 Active 1140-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,008 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,743 · $479/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,735/yr (+$395/mo · 469.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,578
• − Property taxes: −$1,008
• − Insurance: −$1,569
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,218
• − Management: −$2,218
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$9,129
• Taxable loss: −$7,095
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,703
• After-tax cash flow: $181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $313,810 NTREIS

Property tax history

-11.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,008 · -11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.