507 Land Grant Dr · Pecan Grove, TX 77406

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,502 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1980 6,891 sqft lot Est $257k · 28% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTORS! One-story with good bones, ready for a complete remodel. Great flip project or potential rental property. Previous foundation repairs with warranty. Roof and siding replaced approx 2017. Won't last long!

Key facts

• 6,891 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1980

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: The Grove CIA; Annual association fee of $200

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1980; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — approximately 14 x 13; Bedroom (First floor) — approximately 11 x 11; Bedroom (First floor) — approximately 10 x 10
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: One fireplace; Total of 3 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $405 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 2.1% in Pecan Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#256 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1222 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.39%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $256,842
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1802 Winston Homestead St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,502 (0%)	10mo	$279,900	$186	87
1907 Audubon Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,598 (+6%)	1mo	$274,000	$171	86
1914 Landmark Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,606 (+7%)	2mo	$230,000	$143	78
1914 Audubon Ct	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,598 (+6%)	11mo	$258,000	$161	78
330 William Morton Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,641 (+9%)	0mo	$279,900	$171	75
1830 Lansdowne Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,562 (+4%)	11mo	$180,000	$115	70
2334 Trail Wood Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,534 (+2%)	1mo	$219,000	$143	64
1014 Bahia Vista Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,472 (-2%)	6mo	$229,900	$156	61
922 Mayweather Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,439 (-4%)	6mo	$287,000	$199	58
834 Mayweather Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,397 (-7%)	7mo	$275,000	$197	51
2335 Trail Wood Ln	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,612 (+7%)	10mo	$250,000	$155	46
806 Dracena Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,720 (+14%)	12mo	$296,000	$172	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-10,786
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,723
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77406

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1222
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$347 /mo · $4,166/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $405

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,787

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
707 Land Grant Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1994	$2,595	$1.30	43d	1	0.24mi
1808 Thompson Crossing Dr Richmond, TX	2.0	2.0	1129	$1,470	$1.30	43d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 216-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $185,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,166 · $347/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,166 · $347/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$4,166
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,208
• − Management: −$2,208
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $2,141
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$514
• After-tax cash flow: $4,350/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pecan Grove

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #256
• US rank: #6017

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pecan Grove, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,918
• Household income: $141,869
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 575.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 14% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.18%
• Current HPI: 222.9525
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $185,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,166 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.