614 E Birch Ave · Alamo, TX 78516

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,692 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 103 Days on market

Built 2024 7,501 sqft lot $86/sqft · 24% below area Est $201k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great location for an Unfinished construction 4/2 home (1,798 sq ft) situated on pier and beam foundation. Property includes completed electrical, plumbing wiring, A/C unit, and water heater. Excellent opportunity A great project for investors or buyers looking to complete the build and customize the interior.

Key facts

• A/c unit
• Water heater
• Plumbing wiring

Tags

• PIER AND BEAM FOUNDATION
• COMPLETED ELECTRICAL
• PLUMBING WIRING
• A/C UNIT
• WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-584/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.8% in Alamo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#916 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, schools D, crime F.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 349 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.44%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,485
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -28.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
626 E Ellis Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-7%)	4mo	$180,000	$114	53
410 Delia Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,581 (-7%)	7mo	$199,900	$126	52
729 Saint Vincent Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,701 (+0%)	14mo	$285,000	$168	51
844 E Ellis Ave	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,806 (+7%)	2mo	$170,000	$94	49
733 Saint Vincent Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,816 (+7%)	3mo	$305,000	$168	48
115 S 10th St	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+8%)	8mo	$199,500	$110	47
734 Saint Vincent Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,791 (+6%)	14mo	$295,000	$165	46
736 Saint Vincent Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,888 (+12%)	2mo	$345,000	$183	45
719 N Margret St	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,597 (-6%)	6mo	$255,000	$160	45
411 E Austin Ave	0.41mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,921 (+14%)	0mo	$286,000	$149	45
731 Saint Vincent Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,553 (-8%)	14mo	$264,000	$170	43
425 E Nebraska Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,497 (-12%)	9mo	$245,000	$164	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-26,457
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-26,474
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78516

• Home prices YoY: -6.5%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,442 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$367 /mo · $4,405/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $-49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,504

Max offer price $136,409

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $33	-5% $-8	+0% $-49	+5% $-90	+10% $-131
Rent	-10% $-163	-5% $-106	+0% $-49	+5% $8	+10% $65
Rate	-1.0pp $24	-0.5pp $-12	base $-49	+0.5pp $-86	+1.0pp $-124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
444 E Acacia Ave Unit 3 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	24d	1	0.21mi
436 E Acacia Ave Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,225	$1.08	15d	1	0.24mi
438 Alma Ave Alamo, TX	4.0	2.0	1392	$1,600	$1.15	15d	1	0.62mi
357 Pine Crk Alamo, TX	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,750	$1.11	15d	1	0.69mi
812 Santa Anna Dr Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	15d	1	0.76mi
1203 W Jasmine Ave Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$1,500	$0.94	22d	1	0.93mi
1233 Country Club Dr Unit 4 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	1099	$1,050	$0.96	44d	1	1.02mi
1122 Country Club Dr Unit 4 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,200	$1.13	15d	1	1.02mi
1032 Palm Dr Apt 3 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,225	$1.14	24d	1	1.06mi
1020 Palm Dr Unit 3 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,225	$1.14	24d	1	1.06mi
1036 Palm Dr Unit 1 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,225	$1.14	24d	1	1.06mi
207 Fudge Alamo, TX	4.0	2.0	2246	$1,850	$0.82	15d	1	1.07mi
529 Country Club Dr Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,950	$1.37	15d	1	1.10mi
837 S 13th St Alamo, TX	2.0	1.5	1104	$1,095	$0.99	15d	1	1.26mi
1020 Palm Dr Unit 1 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,275	$1.18	44d	1	1.31mi
427 Frio Ln Apt 4 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1118	$1,275	$1.14	45d	1	1.35mi
1305 Valle Vista St Unit 4 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 84 DOM
16. 2026-04-08
    price $145,000 312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (312 chars)

    Great location for an Unfinished construction 4/2 home (1,798 sq ft) situated on pier and beam foundation. Property includes completed electrical, plumbing wiring, A/C unit, and water heater. Excellent opportunity A great project for investors or buyers looking to complete the build and customize the interior.

17. 2026-03-06
    listed $149,900 Active 312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (312 chars)

    Great location for an Unfinished construction 4/2 home (1,798 sq ft) situated on pier and beam foundation. Property includes completed electrical, plumbing wiring, A/C unit, and water heater. Excellent opportunity A great project for investors or buyers looking to complete the build and customize the interior.

18. 2024-06-12
    soldstatus Sold 150-char remark

    Show marketing remark (150 chars)

    REDUCED! Motivated sellers. Desirable location to build your custom dream home on this 50 x 150 lot. Close proximity to restaurants,& expressway.

19. 2024-06-12
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (150 chars)

    REDUCED! Motivated sellers. Desirable location to build your custom dream home on this 50 x 150 lot. Close proximity to restaurants,& expressway.

20. 2024-06-11
    status Pending 150-char remark

    Show marketing remark (150 chars)

    REDUCED! Motivated sellers. Desirable location to build your custom dream home on this 50 x 150 lot. Close proximity to restaurants,& expressway.

21. 2024-06-05
    historical Option 150-char remark

    Show marketing remark (150 chars)

    REDUCED! Motivated sellers. Desirable location to build your custom dream home on this 50 x 150 lot. Close proximity to restaurants,& expressway.

22. 2024-04-11
    price $65,000 150-char remark

    Show marketing remark (150 chars)

    REDUCED! Motivated sellers. Desirable location to build your custom dream home on this 50 x 150 lot. Close proximity to restaurants,& expressway.

23. 2024-02-19
    listed $75,000 Active 150-char remark

    Show marketing remark (150 chars)

    REDUCED! Motivated sellers. Desirable location to build your custom dream home on this 50 x 150 lot. Close proximity to restaurants,& expressway.

24. 2024-01-17
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2023-12-20
    soldstatus
26. 2023-11-07
    status Pending
27. 2023-10-07
    listed $45,000 Active
28. 2019-11-05
    soldstatus
29. 2019-10-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,405 · $367/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,405 · $367/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,306
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$4,405
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,384
• − Management: −$1,384
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$2,934
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$704
• After-tax cash flow: $121/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alamo

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #916
• US rank: #16356

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alamo, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 34,370
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,370
• Household income: $53,229
• Rent vs Own: 24.5% rent · 75.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 476.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 40% White 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 86%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada
• Languages at home: 24% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.56%
• Current HPI: 225.4438
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+222.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $145,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $149,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-06-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-06-12 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2024-06-11 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2024-06-05 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2024-04-11 Price Changed $65,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-02-19 Listed $75,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-01-17 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2023-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-11-07 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2023-10-07 Listed $45,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2019-11-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+17.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,405 · +173.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.