522A Thornbury Ct · Leisure Village, NJ 08701

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,236 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 1969 Fair condition Est $239k · 37% under $404/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BEST AND FINAL OFFERS BY WEDNESDAY 4/22 NOON Cute 2 bedroom 1 bath end unit waiting for some TLC. Eat in kitchen, extra large living room/dining room, 2 spacious bedrooms and inviting enclosed porch.

Key facts

• Eat in kitchen
• Enclosed porch
• Garage

Tags

• EAT IN KITCHEN
• ENCLOSED PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 6.0% in Leisure Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#416 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, cost of living B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lakewood Township School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #417 of 472 in NJ (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 419 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.45%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $238,548
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
522A Thornbury Ct	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,236 (0%)	0mo	$145,000	$117	100
449A Cheshire Ct	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,246 (+1%)	2mo	$297,000	$238	80
450D Cheshire Ct Unit D	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,246 (+1%)	3mo	$185,000	$148	78
500B Thornbury Ct Unit B	0.08mi	2/1.0	1,078 (-13%)	1mo	$216,000	$200	75
1317 Eisenhower St	0.36mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,140 (-8%)	3mo	$605,000	$531	60
439 Sophee Ln	0.58mi	2/1.5	1,164 (-6%)	3mo	$190,000	$163	58
426A Chatham Ct	0.44mi	2/1.0	1,078 (-13%)	3mo	$147,000	$136	55
1668 Wisteria Ct	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,412 (+14%)	4mo	$321,750	$228	55
512 Sophee Ln	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,165 (-6%)	4mo	$225,000	$193	55
295B W Malvern Ct	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,374 (+11%)	4mo	$205,000	$149	44
119B Buckingham Dr	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,098 (-11%)	7mo	$210,000	$191	42
116A Buckingham Dr	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,053 (-15%)	3mo	$207,000	$197	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-739
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $30,488
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08701

• Active inventory: 419
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,286 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$404
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,824

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 Marshall St Lakewood, NJ	3.0	1.0	1168	$2,900	$2.48	7d	1	0.52mi
610 Sophee Ln Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.5	1164	$2,000	$1.72	43d	1	0.69mi
335A Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$1,950	$1.99	19d	1	0.72mi
341B Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,275	$2.32	22d	1	0.77mi
47L Cambridge Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	841	$1,795	$2.13	24d	1	0.81mi
106A Edinburgh Ln Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	858	$2,200	$2.56	17d	1	0.87mi
278C Kingston Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,250	$2.25	2d	1	0.87mi
1100 Deer Path Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0–1.5	1187	$2,575	$2.17	1d	4	1.10mi
1042C Aberdeen Dr Unit C Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,000	$2.04	4d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $404 · $4,848/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,436
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,195
• − Management: −$2,195
• − HOA: −$4,848
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $2,432
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$584
• After-tax cash flow: $3,803/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathroom, and improve the overall appearance and functionality. Updates will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — severely dated and worn
• Major kitchen appliances — outdated and worn
• Major bathroom fixtures — outdated and worn
• Minor exterior siding — some wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing kitchen will appeal to buyers and renters
• Both replace outdated bathroom fixtures — modernizing bathroom will appeal to buyers and renters
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint will improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace checkered kitchen floor — modern flooring will improve kitchen aesthetics and functionality
• Both repair/replace worn carpet — new carpet will improve comfort and aesthetics in living areas

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · severely dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen appliances · outdated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · outdated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · some wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$45,500–153,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing kitchen will appeal to buyers and renters ↑
• Both replace outdated bathroom fixtures — modernizing bathroom will appeal to buyers and renters ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint will improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace checkered kitchen floor — modern flooring will improve kitchen aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both repair/replace worn carpet — new carpet will improve comfort and aesthetics in living areas ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakewood Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408220
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,301
• Composite: 19.21/100
• National rank: #8813
• State rank: #417 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #14624

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 139,149
• Household income: $64,959
• Rent vs Own: 48.5% rent · 51.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 5757.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 5% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -682.83%
• Current HPI: 465.344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $150,000 MOMLS