18970 Santa Rosa Dr · Detroit, MI 48221

$149,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,637 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1931 3,485 sqft lot Est $164k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sharp brick colonial. Features a recent remodel, updated kitchen, 1.5 baths, basement, and an open floor plan. Easy access to Downtown Detroit and the Woodward corridor. Winter TAXES are estimated

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Recent remodel
• Woodward corridor

Tags

• RECENT REMODEL
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WOODWARD CORRIDOR

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Ground-level entry with steps; Brick exterior
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot roughly 35 x 102.5 (about 0.08 acre)

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No cooling
• Interior features: Living room fireplace; Unfinished basement; Seven total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($128/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $147k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 10.2% in Detroit — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $147,257 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.31%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,700
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18674 San Juan Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,538 (-6%)	4mo	$210,000	$137	75
18037 Pennington Dr	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,672 (+2%)	0mo	$91,000	$54	69
19179 Pennington Dr	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,743 (+6%)	5mo	$170,000	$98	67
18445 Roselawn St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,609 (-2%)	5mo	$91,000	$57	64
18468 Santa Barbara Dr	0.38mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,738 (+6%)	5mo	$150,000	$86	63
19372 Santa Barbara Dr	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,421 (-13%)	2mo	$218,500	$154	59
18661 San Juan Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,882 (+15%)	4mo	$236,000	$125	52
19498 Santa Rosa Dr	0.41mi	3/3.0	1,852 (+13%)	2mo	$185,580	$100	51
18947 Cherrylawn St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,460 (-11%)	1mo	$110,000	$75	49
17421 Quincy St	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,474 (-10%)	2mo	$234,500	$159	47
17600 Santa Barbara Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,446 (-12%)	2mo	$145,000	$100	46
19703 Santa Barbara Dr	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,400 (-14%)	5mo	$110,000	$79	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-22,625
• Equity at exit: $22,291

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-15,035
• Equity at exit: $12,926

Cash invested: $41,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48221

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,651 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax from tax record: −$447 /mo · $5,364/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,637

Max offer price $149,500

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,375
• Closing costs: $4,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19031 Livernois Unit F Detroit, MI	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,135	$1.94	43d	1	0.07mi
17596 Santa Rosa Dr Unit 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,195	$0.89	24d	1	0.61mi
17596 Santa Rosa Dr Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,195	$0.89	43d	1	0.61mi
18935 Indiana St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,523	$1.22	4d	1	0.82mi
20129 Stratford Rd Unit 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,223	$1.11	24d	1	0.82mi
17530 Roselawn St Unit 1 Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	24d	1	0.83mi
17368 Woodingham Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,800	$1.50	43d	1	0.84mi
19986 Cherrylawn St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.5	1144	$1,700	$1.49	17d	1	0.89mi
17163 Prairie St Unit 1B Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1317	$1,350	$1.03	43d	1	0.90mi
17145 Santa Rosa Dr Unit 1 Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,400	$1.33	17d	1	0.91mi
20110 Northlawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	17d	1	0.92mi
20009 Wisconsin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1051	$1,400	$1.33	17d	1	1.01mi
17195 Northlawn St #2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,050	$0.88	24d	1	1.03mi
17195 Northlawn St #1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	19d	1	1.03mi
17159 Northlawn St Unit 17161 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1122	$975	$0.87	4d	1	1.06mi
16722 Tuller St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	16d	1	1.11mi
20185 Indiana St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.5	1096	$1,275	$1.16	43d	1	1.14mi
16834 Fairfield St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1516	$1,363	$0.90	24d	1	1.15mi
16582 Santa Rosa Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1314	$1,399	$1.06	17d	1	1.20mi
2554 Woodstock Dr Highland Park, MI	3.0	1.5	1929	$2,250	$1.17	14d	1	1.25mi
2521 W McNichols Rd Unit B2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,250	$0.96	43d	1	1.28mi
16255 Lilac St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1312	$1,394	$1.06	17d	1	1.32mi
351 Edgewood Pl Unit 2 Ferndale, MI	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,200	$1.38	17d	1	1.35mi
631 Shasta Pl Ferndale, MI	3.0	2.0	1317	$2,100	$1.59	43d	1	1.38mi
17540 Pinehurst St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	43d	1	1.40mi
16934 Ilene St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1516	$1,400	$0.92	19d	1	1.41mi
16889 Washburn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,100	$0.85	17d	1	1.42mi
16546 Wisconsin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1577	$1,500	$0.95	43d	1	1.43mi
695 Livernois St Unit 1 Ferndale, MI	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,750	$1.83	12d	1	1.45mi
1031 Covington Dr Unit 1061 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,595	$1.33	43d	1	1.45mi
1029 Covington Dr Unit 1029 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,495	$1.25	43d	1	1.46mi
17670 Manderson Rd Unit 17670 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1199	$1,595	$1.33	43d	1	1.46mi
17666 Manderson Rd Unit 17666 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,595	$1.33	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,500 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,500 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,500 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,500 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,500 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,500 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,500 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,500 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,500 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,500 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,500 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,500 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,500 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,364 · $447/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,364 · $447/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,374
• − Property taxes: −$5,364
• − Insurance: −$748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,585
• − Management: −$1,585
• − Depreciation: −$4,349
• Taxable loss: −$2,197
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$527
• After-tax cash flow: $656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 41,392
• Household income: $57,878
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1646.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 85% White 8% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -433.14%
• Current HPI: 280.5434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.44%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+99.3% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $149,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-29 Listed $149,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $189,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $189,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $189,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-09-02 Listed $199,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-02 Listed $199,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-03-03 Rental Removed $1,500 REALSOURCE
• 2025-02-04 Price Changed $1,500 REALSOURCE
• 2025-01-30 Listed for Rent $1,300 REALSOURCE
• 2023-11-23 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-11-22 Sold (MLS) $105,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-11-22 Sold (MLS) $105,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-10-11 Price Changed $133,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-11 Price Changed $133,900 REALCOMP
• 2023-10-05 Price Changed $134,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-05 Price Changed $134,900 REALCOMP
• 2023-09-23 Price Changed $139,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-09-22 Price Changed $139,900 REALCOMP
• 2023-08-30 Listed $165,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-08-30 Listed $165,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-15 Sold (MLS) $80,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-03-15 Sold (MLS) $80,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-01-25 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-01-25 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2020-07-16 Listed $85,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-07-16 Listed $85,000 REALCOMP
• 2011-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $49,552 Public Records
• 2007-11-16 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2007-07-16 Listed $75,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,364 · -54.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.